158 Democrats Vote Against the Minimum Wage

And against a reduction in the death tax, but it's the minimum wage part that hurts. If you haven't turned on a TV in the last 18 hours, the Republicans pulled a brilliant bait and switch - they agreed to let the minimum wage come up for a vote, in a package that would also exempt the first $5 million of an individual's estate or $10 million of a couple's estate from the death tax. Democrats have understandably been screaming bloody murder, but I'm not all that sure if they're angrier about the "principle" of the bill (which hopefully is at worst a wash for small business) than about the fact they got cornered by Rove & Co...brilliantly. This minimum wage hike affect a miniscule number of families, and a large number of suburban teenagers flipping burgers at the Golden Arches (and after reading Fast Food Nation I find myself with a shortage of charity towards McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King, etc.); the estate tax reduction (and can we be honest and admit that claiming this minor adjustment affects the "super-rich" is pathetic? The super-rich measure their wealth not in millions but in billions) benefits small businesses and working farms who are asset rich and cash poor and to whom the estate tax truly is a death tax. Taking a stand on the minimum wage is merely symbolic, but working to alleviate the threat of lost livelihoods for future generations.
Decent coverage from the AP here.
The full roll-call (#425) here.

Pot Calling the Kettle Black?

Kos has polling data showing Cynthia "I Beat Cops and Get Away With It" McKinney losing to a primary challenger in the upcoming runoff (damn fool couldn't top 50% and avoid said runoff). That's a sad day for Republicans - she's the sort of Democrat we all love. But what's really funny is the Kossacks calling her an embarassment to their party...excuse me? She is, but all you moonbats most certainly are too. Y'all are in the same boat. Indeed, I don't think the Democratic Party has had someone to be truly proud of since they lost Scoop Jackson and more recently, Moynihan.

NOTE: One of my readers (and I have my suspicions as to who) playfully asked if by Scoop Jackson I meant the basketball pundit. Hardly. I meant Henry "Scoop" Jackson the senator from Washington for thirty years and a two-time Democratic presidential candidate.

Can't Believe I've Been Silent for So Long!

Okay so honestly, I've been quiet and quit blogging regularly going on two weeks now. But there's something addictive about all of this, especially since it lets me vent the frustration that comes with my daily news fix...

I suppose I could start talking about Israel and keep talking about it all day, but what's most worth noting for the time being is that Hizbullah rockets have hit deeper into Israel than they had previously, some thirty miles south of the Israeli-Lebanon border. These are apparently a new type, but whether or not they have the capability to hit Tel Aviv is at present unclear. AP's got it here; I'll get commentary from other blogs soon.

Two news stories that have been underreported but deserve to be highlighted from Latin America. First of all, in Nicaragua, former Sandinista cauldillo Daniel Ortega looks poised to win his country's upcoming presidential election. Needless to say, he's close amigos with everyone's favor dictator Hugo Chavez. This is also part of a larger trend of political amnesia that's sweeping Latin America (see Garcia's reelection about two months ago, after he already ruined the Peruvian economy in the 80s). What I'm unsure of is whether this is part and parcel of the short-sighted renunciation of neo-liberal economics or something marginally different.

The second and equally disturbing story is that Russia and Venezuela have inked a series of arms deals for military helicopters and and aircraft. Although details, such as models, are hard to come by, the package was apparently valued at more than $3 billion and included 24 planes and 53 helicopters. While Chavez is mum on their purpose, I have a guess: regional intimidation. Reports claim he's been in league with FARC in Colombia, no doubt an attempt to destabilize our strongest ally in the region, and though an all-out war is rather unlikely, such arms deals (which Chavez can clearly afford with oil at its current price) may be a sort of warning shot across the bow of the Colombian ship of state.

Morning News Roundup July 20th

Bush is live at the NAACP convention right now, discussing education...needless to say the crowd's not all that enthusiastic, but there is some applause. He's doing okay, but I think it's telling that the loudest applause he's gotten so far was when he asked if anyone from Texas was in the audience. Besides education he's harping on the inequality of opportunity in this nation and the importance of home and business ownership as well as what his administration's done to further those goals. Now...death tax. Guessing this one will go over like a lead balloon. Talking Condi up...talking about the Voting Rights Act as well, to thunderous applause.

Israel dropped twenty-three tons of high explosive on the suspected refuge of Hizbullah high command; as far as I can tell, the Israelis didn't get any of their targets. Israel's also talking about a full-scale invasion, an option that isn't out of the question considering their goal of at least driving Hizbullah out of rocket range from northern Israel. The New York Times cites some military analysts who note that this operation might not be succesful without boots on the ground - and I suspect they may be right in that. But whereas I suspect the NYT is trying to suggest that Israel cannot succeed, I disagree - they have the chutzpah to do what's nececssary to secure their northern border.

The collateral damage toll continues to rise, with some estimates claiming 300 Lebanese civilians dead (and half a million in flight), and about a tenth of that dead in Israel (can't find Palestinian death tolls). As tragic as all of this is, I'll reiterate what I've said before: the blood is on the hands of the terrorists who take refuge among civilian populations and deliberately target civilians leaving the Israelis no option but to respond.

Marines are aiding in the evacuation of US civilians from the region. I think it's pretty clear that the greater the efforts to get our people out of there, the greater the level of concern at State and elsewhere about the potential for this to get worse before it gets better.

After Bush's first veto on that stem cell bill (HR 810?), the House failed to override by about 50 votes. A lot of critics are claiming this was little more than a ploy for socially moderate Republicans to distance themselves from the President, but regardless, the President's veto was a bad move.

The Kossacks are jubilantly citing a new Quinnipiac poll showing Lamont narrowly beating Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary. But it's really just a moot point when the poll shows Lieberman romping to victory as an independent. Though he'll never caucus with the Republicans, it'll be interesting to see Lieberman's greeting when he returns to the Senate as an independent...

Back After the Break

So now that my six week stint of sitting in a cubicle for 45 hours a week is over, I'm finding it slightly more difficult to sit down and blog. But I promise I'll try to do so, just because I know I have a small cadre of devoted readers out there. Anyways...

The Middle East continues to blow up, if you weren't aware, I think you're beyond any help. Anyways, Bush was caught on open mike today using less than diplomatic four-letter words while expressing a correct and crucial sentiment. The setting's even better:

"'See the irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this s--- and it's over," Bush told Blair as he chewed on a buttered roll."

A caller on Cavuto today complained about his manners - I think Bush's disapproval just shot up among the Newport and Martha's Vineyard demographics...

Israel also launched a brief incursion into southern Lebanon this morning, but pulled back after a brief stay. They were clearly trying to drive off or destroy rocket launchers and crews; whether or not they were succesful is debatable at present. Obviously, early suspicions that this might be the recreation of a buffer zone such as the one that existed previously in southern Lebanon were unfounded. However it is noteworthy that the most recent rocket barrages have not been the regular Katyushas, but rather more sophisticated missiles designed by Iran and built by Syria, intended to do maximum damage to people by spraying a concentrated blast of ball-bearings (think a rocket shotgun). Bastards.

A Note on Polling

I'd never paid much attention to all of the various firms out there until I got into campaigning last summer; when you're alert, you notice that some are better than others, and more accurately predict elections. A regular reader over at The Fix posted a statistical breakdown of the various big firms' successes in 2004, and I thought it worth posting here, just to give you all an idea of how credible all of these numbers are:

In reviewing state by state polling by various firms in the 2004 Presidential race, I set up a quick scoring system to judge accuracy.

Taking the final poll done by each firm in a state and matching with actual results, I scored 1 pt for each correct call of the state, 3 pts for the exact margin of victory/1 pt if within margin of error (3%) and 3 pts for calling the candidate vote total by exacft percentage / 1 pt. within MoE.

I also tracked misses (states called incorrectly) and quality picks (where the state was called and the margin and candidate percentages were all within the MoE). No points were awarded for misses:

Results:

ARG (American Research Group)
44 states polled
131 pts. (avg. 2.997)
5 misses (11.36%)
10 quality picks (22.73%)

Gallup
10 states
19 pts. (avg. 1.9)
4 misses (40%)
2 quality picks (20%)

Mason Dixon
21 states
92 pts. (avg. 4.381)
1 miss (4.76%)
7 quality picks (33.33%)

Quinnipiac
5 states
11 pts. (avg. 2.2)
1 miss (20%)
0 quality picks (0%)

Rasmussen
30 states
101 pts. (avg. 3.367)
1 miss (3.33%)
13 quality picks (43.33%)

Research 2000
11 states
39 pts. (avg. 3.545)
0 misses (0.0%)
6 quality picks (54.55%)

Strategic Vision
11 states
24 pts. (avg. 2.182)
4 misses (36.36%)
3 quality picks (27.27%)

Survey USA
30 states
116 pts. (avg. 3.867)
1 miss (3.33%)
16 quality picks (53.33%)

Zogby
20 states
55 pts. (avg. 2.75)
3 misses (15%)
6 quality picks (30%)
1 perfect call- Missouri

The state by state polling data was compiled at: www.tripias.com/state/

The point system may be worthless as I just concocted it myself but it allows a comparison since all firms did not poll in all states.

As far as accuracy, Mason Dixon, Rasmussen and Survey USA came away with only 1 miss and had the most net quality picks minus misses

Thanks RMill - awesome as always.

New Numbers in Rhode Island

And they aren't all that hot. Rasmussen (which a friend of mine described as "in the same septic tankas Lake [Tester's polling firm] - only floating a little higher") released them to members only today but someone released them at the Providence Journal. They show Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee losing to Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse 41%-46%, and Republican insurgent Steve Laffey getting destroyed by Whitehouse 29%-57%. In June, the Chafee-Whitehouse numbers were 42%-44%; a month before, Chafee was up by 3%. All this time, Laffey has been unequivocally being swept aside by Whitehouse. Rasmussen here. The July poll questioned 500 likely voters, margin of error +/-4.5%.

Assuming Chafee pulls past Laffey in the primary, he'll receive a small bounce - but with only 5% separating the two candidates, every little bit helps. I don't think debates will be to Chafee's benefit, but then again I'm not sure they'll help Whitehouse either (for that matter I don't think I've heard either campaign even mention the idea).

Oil Update

With afternoon trading continuing, and the prospect of prices rising even higher in after-hours trading as they did yesterday, prices on futures of both Brent and light sweet crude are up, passing $78/barrel. Analysts are predicting prices to rise further, breaking $80/barrel under the combined pressure of events in the Middle East and Africa; another hurricane in the producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico could also cause a further spike in oil prices. Gas prices presently average $2.96 but are expected to rise.

Heh

After what was a relatively close special election in the CA50 (and an expensive special for the GOP!), Republican victor Brian Bilbray is seeing some sort of incumbent bump. New numbers from SurveyUSA show him beating Democratic nominee/special election nominee Francine Busby 51%-40% (566 LV, +/- 4.2%)

Middle East Muddle

Breaking: Multiple sources are saying that the Israeli air force has struck at a Beirut building suspected to be housing a high-ranking member of the Hizbullah terrorist organization.

Israel seems to be isolating Beirut, blockading the city, shutting down the airports, and taking out bridges on the highway to Syria, according to AP. What this seems to indicate to me is a serious willingness to take care of the Hizbullah leadership, finishing what should have been done long ago. Israel, meantime, claims its goal is a more difficult disarmament; considering that on a per capita basis your average unstable Middle Eastern nation has more guns than an Idaho militia, I think a more focused goal might be desirable.

If indeed Syria and/or Iran are behind the kidnappings and the escalation, then it appears they've miscalculated - and they've blinked. JPost reports that both Syria and Saudi Arabia criticized Hizbullah's attacks, Syria calling for them to stop their missile attacks in northern Israel. Syria's reaction, I think, is informed by a fear of Israel turning its focus to Damascus. However, I don't think Syria's attempts to separate themselves from Hizbullah's attacks will work if Israel feels that sufficient pressure on Damascus might resolve the crisis to their liking.

One telling report from JPost serves to strengthen the case for implicating Iran in all of this: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised to repair the damages to Lebanese infrastructure caused by Israeli airstrikes. The man clearly doesn't want to directly involve his own forces (though Iran has apparently used Revolutionary Guards units in Lebanon before), but sees his Hizbullah proxies seriously shaken by the Israeli counteroffensive. Thus an obvious solution is to indirectly support them through infrastructure repair, allowing Iran to continue to arm the terrorist group.

Another clue to Israel's role will come next week in the wake of the G8 conference. Concerns about Israeli reactions to terrorist aggression have supplanted any substantive discussion of Iran's attempts to secure nuclear weapons. If this was, as I suspect, one of Tehran's goals in unleashing Hizbullah and Hamas, we should see a significant reduction in missile attacks and overall aggression, perhaps even the surrender of the captured soldiers, next week.

Apparently conservative fears about Syria and Iran being the puppeteers in this fracas are catching on as Chirac said essentially the same thing yesterday. Chirac also joined the growing chorus of world opinion that called Israel's reactions to the kidnappings disproportionate, a typical response to most Israeli actions. Of course in typical European hypocrisy, UN humanitarian official Jan Egeland said "You are supposed to do something to the armed group. You are not supposed to hurt the children of people who have nothing to do with this." While Egeland was talking about Israeli targeted airstrikes with civilian collateral damage, the sentiment is far more apropos to the missile barrages launched by Hizbullah without pretense of a military target.

It's becoming clear that, despite Lebanese pleas and public pressure, President Bush will make no effort to force a cease-fire upon Israel. Although there are justifiable concerns about Lebanon's fledgling democracy being weakened by the continued conflict, I certainly think this is a classic example of "whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger." Even the democratic, nominally pro-Western Lebanese government of the present post-Syria era has resisted disarming Hizbullah as such an action could potentially reignited civil war such as the one that tore the country apart in the 1980s. If the government will not undertake to disarm the terrorists, then perhaps the Israelis can do it for them. There are of course weaknesses in this plan, such as turning more Lebanese against the Israelis, but in the long run an essential ingredient for Middle Eastern peace is a stable Lebanon free of terrorist parasites like Hizbullah.

Also from JPost: Mahmoud Abbas has apparently threatened to resign, dismantle the Palestinian Authority, and withdraw from the Palestinian Territories during a call with Condoleeza Rice, claiming he no longer has any authority and that Israel is destroying his infrastructure. There is a sort of historical precedent for such actions, as the PLO under Arafat spent several years in exile in Tunis during the early to mid 1980s, having fled an Israeli invasion of Lebanon and displacing them from their old haunts in Beirut.

An interesting op-ed by the editor of the Lebanese Daily Star. Although I don't agree with all of his points, it's worth reading; I'll try and deconstruct it fully later.

In examining the roots of this contest, Charles Kruathamer cuts to the heart of the matter and places the blame where it belongs: with terrorist organizations seeking an end to what they see as an illegal, racist, Zionist state. Two quotes will suffice; I'd suggest reading the whole thing:

The fighting is about "the core 1948 issues, rather than the secondary ones from 1967."

In 1967 Israel acquired the "occupied territories." In 1948 Israel acquired life. The fighting raging now in 2006 -- between Israel and the "genocidal Islamism" (to quote the writer Yossi Klein Halevi) of Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran behind them -- is about whether that life should and will continue to exist.

Also, and more succintly: "The issue is, and has always been, Israel's existence. That is what is at stake." That's all for now folks.

Morning News Roundup

I'll stay away from the Middle East for the time being, and devote a lot of space to that region in a little while.

• It's Bastille Day in France - happy independence, Frogfriends. As I noted last night, foreign relations sanity may slowly be returning to that part of the world. (I'll try and find a link to that journal for any Francophone readers I may have.)
• A new AP-Ipsos poll claims that "America wants Democrats in power" - and I'd love nothing more than to be beaten with a stick. Right. You really want Democrats in power? Anyways, that laugh aside, the poll finds the President's approval holding steady at 36% among 1,000 adults. Among 789 registered voters, Democrats are favored on the generic congressional ballot 51%-40%, with 81% of "liberals," 56% of "moderates", and 24% of "conservatives" (all self-identified) saying they'll vote for the Democrat in their district. Among leaners, Democrats also have an edge 51%-41%. While none of this is good news, it's not surprising news considering the traditional "six-year itch" as well as public unease over gas prices, immigration, and the war. Should Congress succeed in passing an enforcement-first immigration bill between now and the elections, I suspect we'll see the number of conservatives voting left decline. The other two factors, gas prices and the war, should they be get better in the eyes of the public, I supect we'll see more moderates switch back towards the GOP. I had a pollster tell me that the generic ballot was going Democrat, but in the districts people are still happy with their Congressman. Should that trend continue, I think the GOP holds the House and probably the Senate.
• In what the GOP hopes is an "open mouth, insert foot" moment for the Left, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, under the aegis of Chicago Congressman Rahm Emmanuel, has released an ad depicting Tom DeLay as a criminal and trying to use images of flag-draped coffins for political benefit. The Tribune goes hard after Emmanuel too, noting his frequent use of the war and the sacrifice of our soldiers for political benefit. The add can be found on the DCCC's website.
• Victor Davis Hanson, a favorite columnist of mine, has a great one today. It's basic premise is that Bush needs to man up and tell the American people (and the world, I think), that "since Sept. 11, 2001, it has had to choose between options that are bad or far worse." This is the kind of argument that needs to be made, that we're not in some socially just utopian ideal but rather in a war and locked in combat with a nihilistic amoral enemy so there are no good choices, just bad and worse. To quote him at length,

  Ultimately, the Bush administration needs to do a better job of presenting this current war in a far larger context. Jihadists of the Arab world for decades have been at war not with George W. Bush alone, but with modernity itself. The radical Middle East street may be fascinated by the Internet, satellite TV, automated teller machines and cell phones--but not by the foreign anathema of democracies, religious tolerance, free markets and gender equality that ultimately account for such goodies.
  
  So there are many fronts in our struggle against Islamic terrorists from the 7th Century. The American people must be reminded of our challenges constantly in lieu of platitudes about the inevitable triumph of freedom and democracy. In short, our government should provide much more explanation of this complex war and far fewer simple declarations about it.

I think that's it for right now, I'll definietly post more as the day goes on.

Worth Noting:

From the June 19th issue of the Weekly Standard: France has a neocon movement, embodied by the "Cercle de l'Oratoire", a

group of dissenters from the weird ideology now dominant among a French elite that hates America more than it hates Islamofascism.

Their circle has grown considerably since its inception after 9/11, and many are "classical" neocons, that is to say former leftists; neoconservatives are, as Irving Kristol quipped, "liberals mugged by reality." Now their writings and thoughts have found a new form in Le Meilleur des mondes, a journal of neoconservative French thought. Years ago, I perused "The Neoconservative Reader" (or I think that was the title); included were essays by leading European neocons, but I don't remember any Frenchmen included there. I guess that's changed, indeed I think a form of international sanity is slowly dawning in Europe as they begin to fully comprehend the threat posed by Iran and North Korea.

Good News from Montana

Reported in Hotline On Call:
Lake Research, 6/20-6/26, 1200 likely voters, +/- 2.8%
Conrad Burns (R): 43%
Jon Tester (D): 42%


Burns Fav/Unfav: 46%/50%
Tester: 48%/18%

Although I like these numbers (statistical dead heat is better than the Rasmusen numbers here), several avenues of criticism are immediately apparent, first and foremost the 6-day span over which the poll was conducted. Burns' fav/unfav could also be better, but they look worse than they really are compared to Tester's, which are probably skewed by his relatively low profile. Also, Burns has a very significant fundraising advantage ($2.7 million COH to less than $200k COH) which might make a difference in the long run. Eat that Kos and your people-power.

UPDATE
I looked at the Rasmussen numbers and since I tend to trust them more, I'm in a little bit of a funk about this. Tried to post a graph of the numbers, but it didn't work. Suffice to say from a pre-primary starting point with Burns up 3 47%-44%, he's lost 4% while Tester's gained 6% so as to be up 50%-43% in the latest Rasmussen numbers. Doesn't mean I won't tout the Lake Research numbers though...

Oil Update

In after-hours trading, light sweet crude for August delivery hit $76.70. Yes you read that right. So long as the oil market is plagued with uncertainty about the Middle East, especially Iran and Israel, and continued unrest in Nigeria where oil facilities today exploded in what some are alleging is sabotage. Such production shocks are of course only exacerbated by growing market demand in India and China and a stagnating supply; no fields on the scale of Saudi or the Permian Basin have been discovered in decades. I'll try to do a longer piece on oil and how we might decrease the price this weekend, assuming things in Gaza/Israel/Lebanon/(Syria)/(Iran) settle down a bit.

Supplemental Maps

Left: locations of Hizbullah missile strikes. Below: general map of Israel; Safed, where the civilian was killed, is roughly east of Nahariyya.

Thanks to the CIA and Counterterrorism Blog for these!

Israel Update

Continued updates (more than I can do) from Pajamas Media here. I'll excerpt this stuff as I have the opportunity to do so. I'll also try and hunt down more "on the ground" blogs so we can get a sense of how the locals on all sides perceive this conflict developing.

Things are continuing to get tenser, the most striking provocation to date being Hizbullah launching rockets at the Israeli port of Haifa, 18 miles inside Israeli territory. Hizbullah surprisingly denies the attack while the Israelis report no casualites (thankfully). Unfortunately what we've seen here is a cycle of action and reaction - Israeli invasion provoked by Hizbullah kidnappings first, now on a more dangerous level, strikes on the Beirut airport greeted by rockets over Haifa. According to JPost, one civilian died in the rocket barrage on Safed, near Haifa.

Israeli ambassador to the US is also quoted by the BBC as saying

international community should make it clear to Iran and Syria - who both have links with Hezbollah - that they were "playing with fire".

Whether or not the international community, especially the UN, can be persuaded to do just that, and get past blaming Israel for the violence, remains to be seen. It seems that Egypt may be getting the message, blaming primarily Syria - but here again I suspect that Syria is merely doing Tehran's bidding. Also worth noting here - that NYC tunnel plot exposed last week had a Lebanese connection; in light of recent developments that seems even more ominous.

AP reports that Israel is warning Lebanese civilians to stay clear of Hizbullah-infested neighborhoods in Beirut, while simultaneously announcing that "nothing is safe" - no target is off limits. No doubt the precursor to the sort of targeted killings we've witnessed against the Hamas leadership lately. Also, the latest barrage of Hizbullah missiles appears to be a more advanced type?

From the Counterterrorism Blog, a profile of Hizbullah military chief Imad Mugniyah suspected to be behind the kidnappings, as well as the '83 Beirut bombings, the '96 Khobar Towers attack, and a string of anti-Israeli strikes around the world. Clearly this guy's a bad character; hopefully the Israelis can put an end to his rampage in the near future.

In reports I haven't seen confirmed, an Israeli extremist group calling itself the “Gilad Shalhevet Brigades” claims it has kidnapped two Palestinians from the Jerusalem area to use as bartering chips for the return of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers. In a show of sanity, Israeli police say they are investigating the claims rather than letting the only rational side in this conflict be hijacked by extremists.

The US also scuttled a UN resolution that would have called for what sounds like a unilateral cessation of military action by Israel...such unilateral pullback is clearly unacceptable and would only serve to embolden Hamas and Hizbullah.

Shaken by all of this, oil closed at nearly $77 a barrel, with the DOW down 168.

Israel Update

From the Jerusalem Post: Israeli inteligence suspects that Hizbullah is is trying to move its kindapped Israeli soldiers to Iran. Maybe that's why the Israelis have been disabling transportation infrastructure? Of course the wto aren't entirely lost if they get to Iran, but things get a lot more difficult...another Entebbe perhaps?

News from the Rest of the World

• Journal has it (no link because they're overprotective of their content) that the Senate's reached a compromise on offshore drilling and will actually pass it. Thank god.
• The Gang of 14 is supposedly meeting today to preemptively discuss William Haynes' 4th Circuit nomination. In a year when we've got much bigger issues to debate than judicial nominations, and getting caught up in a partisan pissing contest to satisfy the bases of each party, I applaud these 14.
• Unsurprisingly, the Democrats are pushing again to get a vote on the minimum wage before the August recess. This is, in essence, a feel-good issue as the number of people working full-time minimum wage jobs to support themselves or their families is minute but those employing minimum wage owners are often small businesses for whom a minimum wage hike could be a trip into the red. Admittedly, there are also plenty of minimum wage earners who are at McDonalds and elsewhere where a wage hike wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would pass higher on costs onto consumers. Sometimes I wonder if Democrats ever took an economics class in school, or at least one where the textbook wasn't Das Kapital.
• Bush is off to Europe for the G-8 Summit, a summit no doubt consumed by international issues throughout Southwest Asia.
• Some predictions have the economy slowing down in the near future due to rising energy costs and higher interest rates (I'll try and get a link soon, real work calls).
  

Must Read (repeatedly)

This is a Lebanese blogger in Beirut, linked from Sandmonkey - he's updating constantly, and will continue to do so until he loses power or internet. Just read it, I can't find a better perspective yet.

I have to say it's fascinating to see blog coverage from throughout the Middle East getting all of these different perspectives on events.

Morning News Roundup (Largely Middle East)

Starting with the Middle East

• Over night (by our standards), the Israeli Air Force struck at Beirut's main airport, effectively shutting down the place with attacks on all three runways. In retaliation, Hizballah forces have struck at towns, and an Arab village as well (poor blokes), in Northern Israeli. The strikes were missile launches conducted across the border; Hizballah had threatened to shell Haifa if Lebanon was hit and though that has not yet come to pass, I think these attacks were a substitute. Apparently no one was killed, but one civilian is in critical condition.
  
• Also from CNN, Israeli forces have struck at a military airfield in the Bekaa valley as well as instituted a naval blockade. All of this is clearly designed, as the IDF indicates, to "block the transfer of terrorists and weaponry;" strikes on nominally civilian targets such as the Beirut airport also indicate that Olmert's government is linking the Lebanese government with Hizballah, meaning that this isn't a war on Hizballah the terrorist organization but rather on the Lebanese state in an attempt to rid it of its parasitic terrorists.
• On the other front, an Israeli airstrike that killed nine civilians (and thus was widely condemned) seems to have also at least partially accomplished its goal: one Hamas military leader is reportedly paralyzed and apparently others were killed in the same strike. The onus for the civilian deaths is not on Israel for dropping the bomb, but on the Hamas leadership for secreting themselves among civilians without regard for those lives, typically callous and cowardly behavior on the part of terrorists.
• With all of their usual balance, the New York Times headline their coverage of all of this "Once Again, Gazans are Displaced by Israeli Occupiers." Why do I ever expect any better?
• Two interesting comments on a more strategic level are worth noting. First off, the Captain wonders "Is Lebanon the Right Target?" He's on to something, considering it's still Damascus directing Hizballah, and through them the Lebanese government, and thus Israel might benefit from pressuring Syria more than its current offensive. But having said that, I feel that Israel must first take care of the short-term immediate threat, namely Hizballah forces built up on the Israel-Lebanese border, before turning the pressure onto Syria. Also, attacks on Syria would provoke even more crisis and potentially a wider war. But reports of Israeli mobilization and reserves being called up indicates that such action may not be far away.
• Second, and more ominously, it's becoming the view of the conservative blogosphere (myself included) that what we now have on our hands is a proxy war against Iran, cover for them as they desperately try and obtain nuclear weapons. They tried stalling but it looked like we might get enough courage up to actually threaten sanctions, so they've launched other operations to distract. Multiple sources here, one of the best comes from Powerline:

  1. Iran is trying to build a bomb and moving fast in those efforts. Who knows how long it will take, but the Manhattan project took us less than 4 years, starting from scratch and without computers or prior technology. Difficult to believe that it will take Iran (which has already been working on this program for a number of years) 10 more years to complete. I just have no faith that the Iranians are that dumb.
  
  2. Iran is a patron and has some level of control over Hamas.
  
  3. Iran has a close patron relationship with Hezbollah.
  
  4. Iran is a patron and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
  
  5. Iran supports and/or controls some of the Shiite insurgents in Iraq.
  
  6. North Korea is one of Iran's few friends and allies.
  
  7. Hamas and Hezbollah know that Israel must militarily react to the recent kidnaps and attacks and that their actions will ignite, at a minimum, a low level military conflict/incursion by Israel into the Gaza and Lebanon.
  
  8. Any military action by Israel will naturally to draw knee-jerk and harsh international criticism of Israel, regardless of the acts of the provoking parties.
  
  9. In spite of its embarrassing missile fizzle, North Korea knows that its July 4th stunt is extremely provocative to the United States.
  
  10. Higher gas prices (created in large part by the actions of Iran) have the American public and economy concerned.
  
  11. Constant low level violence in Iraq, and the eager air play given such violence in the American MSM, have created an anti-war mood in the U.S.
  
  11. Hezbollah's, Hamas's and North Korea's provocations have all occurred within a week of the date that the Iran situation is referred to the Security Council for what will likely be further endless hand wringing and inaction by that feckless organization.
  
  13. Only two countries have the military will (maybe) and capability (probably) to possibly stop Iran from moving forward with its nuclear program — Israel and the U.S.
  
  So here is my observation/theory — Iran has orchestrated much (if not all) of the current unrest and violence in order to: (i) distract attention from its nuclear weapons program, (ii) tie down Israel militarily in order to reduce the chances that Israel could unilaterally (or in combination with the U.S.) launch a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, (iii) scare the American public (and politicians) into rejecting any unilateral military option against Iran for fear of further inflaming the Mideast (e.g., "Geez, we've already got huge issues in North Korea, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, we can't possibly afford any further foreign entanglements" or "We better not do anything to Iran, we might further inflame the Mideast, threaten our oil supply and the U.S. economy" (Lord knows we don't want to pay $%/gallon for our SUV's)), and (iv) create world furor against Israel (and indirectly the U.S.), to further raise the stakes and international opposition to any unilateral military strikes.

  I'd add to that this thought: if, as this author asserts (and I believe) there are significant links between Tehran and the Taliban, and indeed it appears that Iran gave refuge to shattered Talibani forces after our intervention in Afghanistan, is it too much of a stretch to suggest that they're linked up with Al Qaeda? From there, is it again too much of a leap to suggest that along with the rest of their marionettes, they were behind the Mumbai bombings? I don't think I'm coming across as a conspiracy theorist here, just as a realist about the long, often discrete, reach of the mullahs.
• More on that theme from Leeden over at the National Review:

  It’s war, and it now runs from Gaza into Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. There are different instruments, ranging from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and on to the multifaceted “insurgency” in Iraq. But there is a common prime mover, and that is the Iranian mullahcracy, the revolutionary Islamic fascist state that declared war on us 27 years ago and has yet to be held accountable.

  "You cannot escape the mullahs. You must either defeat them or submit to their terrible vision. There is no other way." Some might shy away from such apocalyptic language, but I believe he's hit the nail on the head. The whole article is worth reading.
  
• No doubt as a result of all of this, oil prices are nearing $76 a barrel. Even if it's not in Israel's best interests, I suspect the administration might try to hold them back in an attempt to keep oil from spiralling ever higher.

Lots more I could say now but I haven't even touched on the rest of the world, so I'll come back to the Middle East later.

Clarence Page Shows us...

Just why Barack Obama is so damn dangerous. Obama speaks "faith-talk" better than anyone else on his side of the aisle, and in the current American climate, you can't win if you can't talk the talk. Page is right when he says Democrats

need to frame their issues in ways that speak not only to the bread-and-butter concerns of ordinary voters, but also to their moral and spiritual concerns about the direction in which the country is going.

That's been what Jim Wallis has been saying, especially in his fascianting "God's Politics Why the Right Gets it Wrong and the Left Doesn't Get It" - and he and Obama see eye to eye. If the Left can get past their knee-jerk secularism, annoint a candidate who can out-faith the GOP (and a lot of the WH Wannabes on the Right don't seem like they speak the lingo that well), they may just have a shot at the White House.

Of course they also need someone strong on defence - and when you put those traits together I think it's called a Republican.

Kids these Days

You hear constantly about how kids basic skills, like reading and writing, aren't what they used to be. I guess the same could be said for the media. I reported yesterday that Bob Novak came clean about is role in Plamegate, noting that

I learned Valerie Plame's name from Joe Wilson's entry in Who's Who in America.

So far as I've seen, not one media piece cared to report that, rather they reported that, as Novak says, Rove confirmed Plame's status for him. He also noted that

Fitzgerald did not indict any of these sources [which] may indicate his conclusion that none of them violated the Intelligence Identities Protection Act.

That didn't make the media's cut either. So what we're left with is a sensationalist political conspriacy that the New York Times wishes was true, and a boring story of a journalist doing some basic grunt work. Can this thing just go away now? Doubtful, in fact I suspect we'll be stuck with more of Joe Wilson's grandstanding.

Morning News Roundup

Lots to cover today folks, let's get going

• The death toll in the Mumbai terrorist attacks of yesterday now stands at 200. Reports as to who is responsible for the carnage are still conflicting - I've heard Al Qaeda and read Kashmiri militant groups. Personally speaking, although this multiple coordinated attacks is a Kashmiri tactic used previously, it's also reminiscent of the 7/7 strike in London last summer. I'm leaning towards Kashmiri militants, potentially with AQ aid. I'll definitely keep an eye on this as it develops, along with any reports of potential Indian reprisals.
• Perhaps more momentously, at least in the short-term, Hezbollah has had the same "Eureka" moment that Hamas had a few weeks ago, and kidnapped some Israeli soldiers. Calling it a declaration of war, Israel's dispatched troops and armor, in conjunction with airstrikes, into Lebanon. Already, seven IDF soldiers have been killed. Hamas leaders have claimed that the Israeli incursion into Lebanon will strengthen their bid to exchange terrorists in Israeli prisons for the capture Israeli soldiers; somehow I doubt that. Unsurprisingly,

  Jubilant residents of south Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah, and Palestinians in the Ein el-Hilwa refugee camp fired their guns in the air and set off firecrackers for more than an hour after the capture of the Israeli soldiers was announced.

  Again, I'll be interested to see how things proceed, but the Israelis need to clearly communicate that they won't negotiate with these fools,and indeed will make it costly for both them and their constituents to meddle with the Israeli state. For our part, we should put significant pressure on Syria and Iran to disavow these terrorists; especially Syria might be inclined to do so, as they could be next on the Israeli target list.
• Rumor has it Bush may exercise his first veto on a stem cell bill due to be passed by the Senate soon. That they intend to pass it despite the veto threat (and despite perhaps the absence of a overriding majority coalition) is I think an election-year ploy designed to give Bush a bump with the base and embattled moderates a chance to stand apart from the President.
  
• In a similar vein, I continue to hear rumors that the House will see some sort of movement on a minimum wage hike, but as of yet, nada. Of course I'll keep you informed!
• The Post claims that Calderon would accept a partial recount in his narrow Mexican victory, but AMLO continues to borrow dialogue from the Al Gore playbook and refuse to concede, while criticizing Calderon for his visible moves towards assuming the presidency, such as putting together a transition team. Isn't that what you do when you won? (Also, WSJ apparently says that no fraud was visible in the video tapes that AMLO says claimed fraud, but I don't have access to the article).
  

So not as much as I thought but some pretty momentous stuff.

The Final Act of Plamegate?

From Drudge: " BOB NOVAK, My Leak Case Testimony: 'I learned Valerie Plame's name from Joe Wilson's entry in 'Who's Who in America'... MORE Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has informed my attorneys that, after two and one-half years, his investigation of the CIA leak case concerning matters directly relating to me has been concluded. That frees me to reveal my role in the federal inquiry that, at the request of Fitzgerald, I have kept secret... MORE... My primary source has not come forward to identify himself... Bill Harlow, the CIA public information officer who was my CIA source for the column confirming Mrs. Wilson's identity. I learned Valerie Plame's name from Joe Wilson's entry in 'Who's Who in America'... I answered questions using the names of Rove, Harlow and my primary source."

Novak will be talking about all of this tommorow night with both Brit Hume and Hannity & Colmes.

Castro Dead?

Rumors are swirling, I'll have more as soon as I hear something concrete...apparently State will neither confirm nor deny.

UPDATE
Not much, but Jonah Goldberg says he heard it from two friends up on Wall Street - and I won't be surprised if something like this takes a little while to trickle out ("Good Comrade Castro has a cold and won't be making any apperances...ever")

If Lives Weren't at Stake...

this might be laughable. Why the Post took the time to publish a letter from the Hamas Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh. It's a typically pathetic piece of propaganda from Hamas, and I'd tear it apart. But the Captain has done it far better than I could. Enjoy!

PS: Best part is where Haniyeh refers to "the 'kidnapped' Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit" - as if the man was begging to be dragged into Gaza. Again, why'd they publish this idiot?

Mumbai Bombing Update

Some more details on the bombing: we now know that there were eight bombs (one of which was defused); the total number of dead is estimated at at least 145.
Pajamas Media has been updating throughout the day here.
Over at Counterterrorism Blog they've got plenty of good stuff, including maps of the Mumbai rail network with locations of the bombs.

Campaign Updates

Both from Kos, but he pays for the access to the data, I just give him credit where credit is due (that's legal, isn't it?)

In Missouri, Talent and McCaskill are tied 42%-42%, down from a 43%-40% lead two months ago. This one will be a total squeaker in November, so I'm not at all surprised by these results. However, McCaskill's had questions from the Senate Ethics Committee of late, so that may slow her down, especially if she tries to play the "Culture of Corruption" card (because we saw how well that worked in CA50!). Kos's predictions about stem cells being a big deal out there in the Show-Me State also have the ring of truth about them, we'll see how they bear out.

In Montana, Democratic insurgent and State Senate president Jon Tester is leading Republican incumbent Conrad Burns 50%-43%. This is one state where the culture of corruption lines seem to be working, so we'll see how things go between now and election day.

Some Final Thoughts on the World Cup

I was going to try and dish up some profundities on the World Cup, the Zidane debacle, etc etc etc...then I went over to Opinion Journal, and Bernard-Henri Levy said it better than I ever could have.

On another note, it's gratifying to see sports journalists stick to their principles and support the greatest athletes, even if they're not exactly the most popular people. I'm talking about Zidane winning the Golden Ball, of course, but I could equally be talking about someone like JJ Redick, who, despised by the majority of NCAA fans, still won the Wooden and Naismith...

Oh and I'm still bitter Italy won. Allez les bleus.

Extended Reflections on the Mexican Election

I’ve written at length, by my paltry standards at least, about the Mexican election of late, good copy considering it’s been a real nail-biter. But I don’t think I’ve paid sufficient attention to the long-term significance of the election, so I thought a quiet Friday afternoon was a good time to do that.

I noticed Eugene Robinson’s Washington Post column (“Mexico’s Great Divide”) the other day, especially his comments that “[t]he fact that AMLO [Obrador] was able to finish in a dead heat with Calderon, who vowed to continue the free-market policies of President Vicente Fox, underscores how Latin America as a region is looking to the political left for solutions. For two decades the region followed a set of prescriptions known as the "Washington consensus" -- privatization, free trade, less regulation.” That, then, is the real significance even of an AMLO defeat – a clear sign that neo-liberal economic policy is seriously threatened.

This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as economic policies are more like fads than honest policies in Latin America – every few years or a decade a new one comes along and everyone jumps on the bandwagon, expecting a panacea for all of their problems. Of course, it doesn’t work. Socialists (or populists, though I associate that term more with Alan Garcia in his 1980s incarnation than Chavez) are the flavor of the month, but are in vogue because they appeal to the masses; it is the poor and the downtrodden that are finding their voices, and finding their demagogues.

That of course was Chavez’s route to power, aided later on by a convenient series of vote-tampering, press-muzzling, and court-tampering schemes, effectively ensuring his continued presidency so long as he desires. A large part of his appeal, as was also the case with his compadre, Evo Morales in Bolivia, was a pledge to reclaim both nations’ energy wealth; that such a goal, and its implicit threat of nationalization, flies in the face of the “Washington consensus.” In Mexico, however, oil wealth is viewed as a national treasure and has been nationalized (the state oil company is Pemex) for decades, having been nationalized in 1938.

The bigger problem in Mexico, then, is not the feeling that oil wealth is flowing mainly into foreign pockets, but rather the feeling that despite promises to the contrary, NAFTA is not delivering for the average Mexican. (Robinson also notes that an electoral map of Mexico finds Calderon’s strongholds in those provinces that have benefited the most from NAFTA).

However, a solution does in fact exist to extend the benefits of neo-liberal economic policy to your average Jose, undercutting the populist and destabilizing appeals of AMLO-esque politicians. What I’m referring to is a two-part adjustment, based on Hernando de Soto’s theory of dead capital and the micro-lending practices of organizations like Opportunity International.

First, de Soto’s theory: In essence, the Peruvian economist estimates that millions, even billions, of dollars in “dead” (i.e. non-fungible) capital are in the hands of the world’s poorest, those in what is described as the informal sector. These people live in homes that are not recognized by the government, run businesses that are neither licensed nor taxed by the government, and exist without the safeguards generally extended to legitimate businesses or homeowners. These people don’t remain in the informal sector because they want to, indeed research shows they’d love to get into the formal sector where contracts are enforceable and insurance is obtainable, despite the fact they’d then be responsible for paying taxes. What keeps them out of the formal sector is the massive amount of red tape and bureaucracy that stands between them and recognized legitimacy. The investment of time and money isn’t just uneconomical for most entrepreneurs in the informal sector, it’s down right unaffordable. If Calderon wants to really reshape Mexico, and extend economic opportunity beyond the northern provinces blessed with NAFTA jobs, he should push for a serious reform of the procedures for incorporating a business or laying claim to a property or home – and thereby unleash the latent wealth of his people.

There is also the micro-lending practices of organizations like Opportunity International which nicely complement de Soto’s theories (de Soto has actually endorsed Opportunity). Micro-lending is, in short, the granting of small financial loans to entrepreneurs to start a business, entrepreneurs who are generally ignored by their local banks because of the small size of the loan and thus the lack of incentive to make the loan. Through careful targeting and practices such as “trust banks” (multiple members of a village or community work together to ensure one another’s loan), the repayment rates on these loans are phenomenal. But even more phenomenal is the way in which these loans improve the lives of the recipients: families are able to move out of poverty or increase their income, allowing them to do things like send their children to school. These loans oftentimes are targeted at women, empowering them and increasing their stature and equality in the eyes of those around them. And in places like Africa, where HIV-AIDS is taking a terrible toll and ripping apart the social fabric, micro-lending is providing a glimmer of hope for the future of that trouble continent. Governments have slowly gotten into the micro-lending act, sometimes in cooperation with groups like Opportunity, sometimes independently. This, too, should be a priority for Calderon, a sort of massive banking reform to benefit his nation’s poorest but also strengthening the whole of Mexico.

These aren’t just idle ideas. Implemented, they would not only be wonderful policy with the potential to reshape Mexico and finally extend the prosperity that, for so many Mexicans, has been out of reach for so long; they would also be fabulous politics, undercutting the traditional base of populists like AMLO, and ensuring further stability in a country that has been short on that precious commodity. Bringing those Mexicans whom prosperity and free trade have left behind (through no malicious intent on behalf of the government or free-trade activists) into the promised land would be bringing those same Mexicans who protested in the streets over the weekend around to a new perspective, one that might again embrace the Washington Consensus whose promise has so long been denied to them.

There is also a role for the United States here, and tangible benefits. The US, both directly and at all levels from conversations between presidents on down, and indirectly, through organizations like US-AID, should encourage Calderon to undertake these policies. If successful, they would no doubt reduce the flow of immigrants from Mexico seeking a better life, as that better life would at last be attainable in their own homes. Fighting poverty and illegal immigration – isn’t this a policy everyone can get behind?

Terrorism In India

From CNN: as many as 100 Indian commuters feared dead after a series of terrorist attacks in Mumbai. I suspect Kashmiri militants may know something about this - and indeed the multiple, closely-timed strikes is an MO of theirs. Of course Kashmiri militants are oftentimes little more than Pakistani-backed forces operating at Pakistani behest but still giving Islamabad plausible deniability. If that's the case, then I suspect South Asia's about to get tenser.

Of course there's always the possibility that this wasn't Kashmiris, or that they were operating independently without orders from Pakistan. But I'm going to assume the worst and just let things get better from there.

Morning News Roundup

It's baaack...I got an irate interrogation from a friend (my only loyal reader?) last night, demanding to know why I hadn't updated today. Sorry folks, I was on the Hill. Here we go:

• Kos is reporting that the Schwarzenegger campaign is using material from the viscious Democrat primary against nominee Phil Angelides. I love it, and my Democrat friends wonder why they can't win races?
• A federal judge has ruled that the FBI search of Representative William ("Dollar Bill") Jefferson's (D-LA02) office was constitutional. Jefferson as in caught with $90,000 in bribe money in the freezer Jefferson. Needless to say that's got a lot of people on the Hill, including several I spoke to yesterday, a little worried about the precedent set. In any case, I'm not sure how necessary it was considering we've got him on videotape taking the money.
• This came out over the weekend, but I think it bears repeating and dissecting: tax receipts are predicted to be up by $250 billion and the deficit down by $100 billion this year. Now that's admittedly, relatively speaking, a drop in the bucket. But what's interesting is that most of these receipt increases in corporate taxes, which have "nearly tripled since 2003." Meanwhile, a jump was also seen in taxes on individual stock sales. What does all of this really mean? In short, Democratic opposition to Bush's tax cuts on dividends and claims that tax cuts for corporations were bad for America, have been heartily disproven. Of course, as the Times points out, and I cannot help but repeat, in just two years the Baby Boomers will start retiring, drawing on Medicare and Social Security, both of which are horrifically in shambles. Thankfully Bush has said that reform of at least the latter entitlement program will be on Congress' agenda for the fall, though unless Democrats suddenly wake up and realize that they've been wrongheaded in their opposition to some sort of reform (and please don't give me those tired "individual retirement accounts are handouts to Wall Street" lines - they make the Left sound pathetic), or if we don't drastically increase our majority (don't count on it), we're not likely to see much progress.
• In news that needs to get more circulation, the Army beat its June recruitment goal. Of course it's only by 2%, and given the Army's revised recruitment standards (the upper limit for enlistment is 42), it's not exactly a huge leap - but it's noteworthy nonetheless. The Left has been whining incessantly about the aging of our miltary through the raising of the maximum enlistment age, but I'm not all that worried. I don't expect these older recruits to be combat soldiers, rather I expect them to be rear-area soldiers in things like IT or mechanical maintenance, potentially with valuable skills from the outside world. Can anyone tell me, with a straight face, that that's a bad thing?
• General Peter Pace gave emotional testimony to a Senate hearing on immigration and the military, noting the number of immigrants who have fought for their adopted country, some despite this country's refusal to accept them. Pace related his own experience as the son of Italian immigrants, and the immigrants who fought alongside him in Vietnam. More recently, he noted that 200 non-citizens have been given awards or medals for their service in the War on Terror, while a hundred have given their lives in that struggle, many knowing, perhaps more than some members of Congress, what freedom is and how valuable it really is, so much so that they've given the last full measure in its name and for the flag of an adopted land. I personally think any immigration bill should have language making the military a path to citizenship for non-citizens and their families - if they're willing to put their life on the line, their valour should be both recognized and rewarded. (On a more personal note, an ancestor of mine was booted from Ireland by the British, came to America, and promptly joined the American Revolution then in progress...so I guess I sort of know how Pace feels, in a more distant sort of way)
• Everyone needs to read this profile on the first domestic victim of Al Qaeda. NOW.
  
• There's chatter about another North Korean missile launch, causing UN discussions as well as potential negotiations to be put on hold. While China negotiates with Kim Jong-Il's Stalinist regime, they refuse to really turn up the pressure on the bizarre-looking despot; perhaps that's why Japan has announced that they're trying to decide whether or not a pre-emptive strike would be legal under their constitution. If that doesn't get the Chinese to get the lead out, I'm not sure what will.
  
• Russia reports that they finally "got" their country's own Bin-Laden, Chechen terrorist leader Shamil Basayev, a man with considerable blood on his hands, including both the Moscow theater hostage-taking and the massacre in Beslan.
• Iraqi insurgents have released a video of two US soldiers killed and mutilated in what the group describes as a retaliation for the rape and murder of an Iraqi girl and her family by US soldiers. If the allegations are true, and five soldiers have been charged, the soldiers deserve to be punished to the fullest extent of the law. However, something more needs to be devised for these insurgents. Drawing on history, neither the Romans nor the British brooked such opposition from insurgents in their time; the Romans would massacre entire communities suspected of harming Roman citizens while the British were only slightly less drastic. Not that I'm endorsing such a course, merely that perhaps we should reiterate to the Iraqi people that it's about time they start taking responsibility for the terrorists among them: they can kill them themselves, they can report them to us and let us kill them, or they can sit back, but if we discover their complicity there should be ramifications.
• AMLO continues to whine in Mexico. Listen buddy, our Democrats still haven't gotten over the 2000 election here, but that doesn't change history. Be a man, and get on with life - your country will be the better for it. Mexico was shaken by street protests over the weekend disputing the election result, with protestors said to number one hundred thousand.
  
• That's all for now, except for the fact that if you're an Iowa resident, you might not be able to avoid tripping over a White House Wannabe this weekend - they're out in strength.
  

Bush, Putin, and Splitting Atoms

While searching for a good Thai restaurant on the Post's website, I noticed this article. Bush is slated to announce a program of civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia, rewarding and recognizing Putin and Russia for their role in helping to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions. Apparently I've missed that cooperation; all I've seen is the usual tired Russian obstruction, refusal to consider sanctions, and continued insistence about their relevance on the world stage. What this deal is is little more than a financial incentive for Russia to potentially start playing along with us on Iran and North Korea, as it will permit US-supplied reactors worldwide to have their spent nuclear fuel shipped to Russia for storage.

So let's again pause here to consider this. We're sending nuclear fuel to Russia, land of Chernobyl (back in the day), and now a corrupt system that we're not too convinced isn't selling nuclear weapons to unsavory characters. Am I reading this right?

And again, all of this comes on top of a wave of Russian churlishness that, in my eyes, doesn't lend itself to any sort of incentives. Not just their uncooperative stance on Iran and North Korea, but also the emerging reports of especially close cooperation with Iraq pre-invasion, and Putin's continued descent towards authoritarianism.

Oh and experts say Congress will hate this too. Can I be the first to call this Dubai Ports: Redux?

Morning News Roundup

• Obviously leading the news is the thwarted terrorist attack on the Holland Tunnel. Though CNN won't say it outright, it looks as if this was an Al Qaeda attack, or at the least affiliated with the organization. Lebanese officials have, on our behalf, arrested a man suspected to have a hand in planning the attacks...wait as I write this, it looks like it was a plot to attack multiple tunnels in the New York area, perhaps four all told. In an unsurprising move, NY Sen Chuck Schumer is moving to monopolize the story, a classic example of how he "Schumers" (yes, that's a verb) things, people, events, etc. Best part of the Times story? When Schumer says, with no apparent irony, "intelligence did its job" - no thanks to your party, Chucky boy.
• Everyone's calling the Mexico race for Calderon, but Obrador doesn't seem to understand the concept and is calling for a recount. What the nation needs is to move on, not get mired in months of uncertainty with tensions highlighted by bitter partisan divisions. Obrador needs to understand when the deed is done, move on, and go make a movie about global warming or something.
• Violence in Gaza has further escalated, with 21 Palestinians and one Israeli killed yesterday in what's been described as the fiercest fighting thus far. Palestinian terrorists have continued to lob missiles into Israel, giving the Israeli offensive great raison d'etre beyond simply liberating the kidnapped IDF soldier. Most importantly, Hamas has ordered Palestinian security forces into the fray, tantamount to a declaration of war. The Post reports that

  Khaled Abu Hilal, the spokesman, said those forces, which number more than 70,000 men and are dominated by the rival Fatah party, had a "religious and moral duty to stand up to this aggression and cowardly Zionist invasion."

  This could potentially be beneficial if it serves to further estrange Fatah from Hamas. But what the Israelis need to indicate, both through this offensive and through a media barrage, is that the lives of the average Palestinian are being made more miserable by Hamas's intransigence and continued use of terror tactics. I'm also starting to wonder whether or not this offensive will effectively nullify the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza last year - perhaps the return will be without settlers and purely military in nature, but I think it's clear that the Palestinians have squandered an opportunity to prove to Israel and the world they're capable of statehood, domestic unity, and an end to violence.
• In one of my favorite stories of the week, one I haven't blogged on, the US continues to use Georgia as an anti-Russian foil, publicly embracing a regime that has been an incessant thorne in Putin's side. Now Georgian President Saakashvili is claiming, likely with good reason, that

  Russia is trying to undermine his government in hopes of intimidating democracy activists from rising up against corrupt regimes like the one he toppled three years ago.

  Post-Rose Revolution Georgia hasn't been all that I've hoped for, and I'm sure many others feel that way; but it is a lot better than its predecessor regime and their presence as an exemplar of both democracy and an end to Russian meddling (Earth to Vlad: the USSR is over. You no longer own all of Central Asia), and it is a regime we should continue to stand by not just for political gain but because it validates much of our rhetoric on the importance of democracy. All of this comes prior to the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, so Bush is just needling Putin, but I reiterate: this kind of public support must become a mainstay even when the world's attention os focused elsewhere.
• Please take a moment to remember the victims of terror who perished a year ago. Let us harden our resolve and continue our struggle against the reactionary, nihilistic forces of Islamofascism and their violent efforts to destroy both Western liberalism and the civilization upon which it is founded. This is not merely about petropolitics or American culture - it is truly a clash of civilizations between freedom and oppression, liberty and totalitarianism. Never in our history as a shining city upon a hill and a global exemplar have we faced such an existential challenge. God bless all those who died.
  

NY Court Strikes Down Gay Marriage

The New York state Supreme Court today ruled that

state law does not permit gay couples to get married there and that such a restriction does not violate New York's constitution.

This was apparently something of a surprise from one of the nation's more liberal Supreme Courts but regardless, it once again shows the inanity of this debate. The moonbats on the left are crying foul, claiming that civil unions are a form of "separate but equal" discrimination, and the Right is celebrating. So, here's my solution: Get the government out of the marriage business.

How can we go about doing this? Simple: all couples recognized by the federal government, regardless of sexual orientation, are granted "civil union" status - so two men are the same as a heterosexual couple in all regards, in the eyes of the government. The marriage part comes in on behalf of individual churches who can choose to perform marriage ceremonies for gay couples on a denominational or congregational basis, so long as that couple already has civil union status in the eyes of the Feds.

The vast majority of references to marriage in the federal government can be found in the tax code - change that to civil union and most of our problem would be solved. Would the Left still call civil unions discriminatory if that was all the federal government recognized? I doubt it. The difficult problem with this plan remains, of course, the uphill slog to convince social conservatives that this change doesn't actually undermine American society - any ideas on how we do that?

La France en Gitmo?

More interesting news from the Captain's Quarters. Apparently, French officials visited Gitmo to determine if their citizens were being held there; since then,

[T]hey have held all of them since, implicit recognition of the potential threat they posed.

Of course, Gitmo has been found to be illegal by French courts. But, with an eye to history, I've always found the French stance a bit hypocritical, as a simple examination of their history in Algeria and Vietnam will show.

Calderon Wins...

...for the moment. CNN's calling it for Calderon, with 99.59% of votes counted, noting that even if all the remaining votes went for Obrador, he still wouldn't win. Final margin: 35.83%-35.36%. Wow.

Unfortunately, Obrador has declared that he "cannot accept these results" and so will challenge them in court. As I noted earlier, we could be in suspense for two months before a winner is finally and formally declared.

Ahnold Opens Up on Angelides

New numbers from the LA Times.

6/26-30, 614 voters, +/- 4%
Schwarzenegger (R): 44%
Angelides (D): 37%

March:
Schwarzenegger (R): 40%
Angelides (D): 37%

Job Approval:
48% Approve, 41% Disapprove
March: 45%/45%
January: 39%/51%

This is the kind of news I like seeing.

More AQ-Iraq news from Fox

First off, credit to CQ for pointing this out. Apparently, Ray Robison, a former member of the Iraq Survey Group provided to Fox translated documents from Iraqi computer files, specifically a sort of instruction manual to Arabs operating in Afghanistan on how to avoid attracting attention to themselves. While this is by no means a smoking gun, even in my eager eyes, I think it's interesting how intelligence linking Iraq and terrorists (or Iraq and WMDs) continue to come out, and continue to get ignored by the media. Full Fox story, including the translated document, can be found here.

So...Apparently Religion Didn't Die with JFK

In discussions of 2008 contenders, I've occasionally supported Mitt Romney? Why not - the man's telegenic, can lay the groundwork for his own fundraising campaign, and has a ready-made GOTV network with his fellow Mormons. Apparently, that last point is proving to be something of a sticky wicket. Teddy Kennedy proclaimed that the issue of religion in presidential politics died with his brother, but a new poll from the LA Times seems to indicate otherwise. Thus, while wariness about a Catholic or a Jew in the White House has dissipated, Mormons and Muslims alike seem unable to assuage public concerns. 37% of respondents said that they wouldn't vote for a Mormon presidential candidate, while 54% said the same thing about a Muslim (and 21% said it about an evangelical Christian!).

While Romney consultants were quick to dismiss the numbers as the usual polling fluff (especially in light of his victory in Massachusetts), I'm not at all surprised. The Times correctly tagged Mormonism as being viewed as "exotic" as was Catholicism before that. In his Massachusetts victory, Romney merely proved that while Catholics were for decades discriminated against, they don't discriminate themselves on religious lines anymore (at least not in the Bay State). But the GOP base in the Heartland might still be wary of a Mormon...we'll see how Romney moves to address these concerns.

PS - Sorry about no Wednesday presidentials yesterday...

Bad News from the TX-28

Down in Texas, judges have ruled that DeLay can't get off the ballot and thus cannot be replaced by another Republican. Bad news for us, as DeLay isn't really running anymore. Story's on Kos right now, I'll try and corroborate...

If this is true that means the Demos only need to pick up 14 seats in the House before they can try and impeach the president. If that doesn't make you vote Republican, I don't know what will.

UPDATE
Found it on the Houston Chronicle's website as well (God I love Google News). Apparently this judge is a Republican appointee, so I guess we can't accuse him of partisan hackery (see Ronnie Earle).

Morning News Roundup

• The much anticipated sequel to 2003's Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest premieres tonight/tommorow morning at 12:01AM. Yes, I'm going. Be jealous. The sequel as well as the third film, due out next summer, were filmed concurrently (much like the second and third installments of the Lord of the Rings trilogy) and are expected to cost, in total, over half a billion dollars. They'd better be good.
• The Mexican election promises to be a squeaker as the tally continues. Despite his earlier claims of victory, the right-wing Calderon is now behind ever so slightly in the polls to the populist Obrador. Some of the latest numbers I've seen have Calderon up 1/100 of a percent on Calderon, with 97.7% of the votes tallied. The good news is that

  The remaining votes to be counted are mostly from National Action Party, or PAN, strongholds in northern Mexico and Calderón's supporters are gathering outside Calderón's headquarters in anticipation of his victory.

  A Calderon victory would unequivocally be a victory for free trade in the hemisphere and potentially a partner on the immigration issue - or at least more of one than Obrador would be. However - and here's the real nail-biter - because of Mexican election law, the election court has to certify the results and has till September 6th to do so. Unfortunately, and much like our own 2000 election, I feel like the outcome, regardless of who is replaces Vicente Fox, will serve only to divide the Mexican populace at a time when the people of that nation need to have an honest discussion, free from partisan acrimony, about their future. I'll obviously continue to update as the day goes on.
  
• Washington Post blog coverage is here.
• Howard Dean's idea of winning back Congress? Spending $75,000 for a new headquarters for the US Virgin Islands Democratic Party. Apparently thinks have gotten so bad between him and DSCC Chairman/IL Democrat Rahm Emmanuel that "during a recent fire drill staffers worried that Dean and Emanuel might bump into each other on the curb." And people wonder why we can bungle things and still maintain the majority? This, ladies and gentlemen, is why. Democrats are desperate for some sort of victory, other than the "moral victories" they've been crowing about (see: CA-50), but instead Dean's claiming to build the groundwork for future presidential campaigns. Emmanuel's deeply worried about having sufficient resources to actually make a push this fall in the House, apparently seeing the midterms and Dean's 50-state plan as mutually exclusive. But Dean too, has his backers, people like the Alaska Democratic Party chairman, who noted that "Until Dean came along, states like Alaska were ignored." Maybe that's a function of having three electoral votes and just over 600,000 residents? Such efforts, and the funding of Democratic parties in places like the Virgin Islands, shows the flaw in Dean's logic. It may be nice, fuzzy, and inclusive to work with them - but to win races you need to work in the heartland, in Florida, in the Mountain West. Dean may leave the DNC as the most beloved Chairman, at least in the eyes of state parties; I doubt he'll leave being remembered as one of the most effective.
• In Washington and at the UN, US leaders are trying to craft a response to North Korea's ballistic provocations. Although the rhetoric has thus far been strong, the international response will no doubt be limited to sanctions and isolation. Unsurprisingly, some reports indicate that China and Russia are balking at even these limited measures. Russia, of course, is again trying to make itself relevant (admit it, it's a 2nd rate power - call it the Al Gore of the international order), however Chinese intransigence is more disturbing as I believe the key to any resolution of this issue is Chinese involvement.
• Happy 60th, Dubya.

More later.

A Tube to Nowhere?

Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), of "Bridge to Nowhere" fame is back...this time claiming the internet is a series of tubes in the debate over net neutrality. Depressing, yet funny here.

Sheehan et. al to Starve to Death

Cindy Sheehan and the usual Hollywood Rogues Gallery (Susan Sarandon, Sean Penn, etc.) have announced they'll fast till September 1st. Although this isn't all that spectacular for Hollywood (I think the term they use out there is diet), ususally something so supposedly profound as protesting a just war isn't at the heart of the matter. They'll fast till September 1st, a date whose significance is lost on me (maybe they could make it ten more days, but that might suggest that Iraq and al-Qaeda were linked!). Gandhi they are not. Full article here.

Morning News Roundup

Hope everyone had a good 4th - a belated Happy Birthday shoutout to our nation.

• North Korea's been putting on a special fireworks show of its own. At last count, the Hermit Nation's armed forces have loosed seven missiles, including one Taepo-Dong 2, supposedly capable of hitting the Western US, though we'll never know for sure since it exploded shortly after launch. The Security Council is meeting this morning to discuss sanctions, but considering the regime's isolation that's hardly sufficient. However, after years of inter-allied dickering and tantrums, it looks like this has finally gotten everyone's attention and put us all on the same page.
• Space Shuttle Discovery launched yesterday, after days and days of trying. Is anyone else bemused by NASA's continued befuddlement - it's afternoon in Florida in the summer and it's raining?! Who would have expected that!
• The CIA confirms it's shut down the agency's Bin Laden unit, instead focusing its resources elsewhere. While I'm sure Lefties everywhere, with their unnatural fixation on OBL, are screaming, I say bravo. The man's less of a symbol, gallavanting around northwest Pakistan than he would be dead and a martyr.
• Mexico, welcome to Florida. Contrary to conservative candidate Felipe Calderon's claims of victory, Chavista-lite Obrador has called for a complete recount, rekindling fears of violence. I've heard persistent rumors that Obrador would pull Mexico out of NAFTA if elected...
• A new Washington Post poll on the Democratic Senate primary in Maryland shows former NAACP chairman Kweisi Mfume slightly leading Congressman Ben Cardin in a racially polarized race. In a race with a black GOP candidate in Michael Steele, race could be the issue. I'll keep an eye on this one, as I continue to think it's a prime GOP pickup opportunity, or should be if Steele is given a chance to explain himself.
  

Webb Plays the Comedian

James Webb has come out with another side-splitter: he claims that the GOP cannot win in Iraq, that they cannot "extract the United States from a bloody quagmire of their own making" (article, not Webb's words, but perhaps his sentiments). Perhaps, just perhaps, that's true. But are the Democrats any different? They refuse to stay and win this critical engagement in our War on Terror - wait, they can't even agree on whether or not to cut and run! It's tragic, I could like and respect Webb if he hadn't turned into such a stooge of Schumer, Kerry and Co.

New Numbers in Washington

Last time I saw polling numbers in the Washington Senate, incumbent Cantwell was up on McGavick 44%-40% (with, I assume, 16% undecided). New numbers from Strategic Vision shows roughly the same situation, Cantwell 47%, McGavick 43%, Undecided 10%. Clearly this race is tightening up, but even then a 4pt difference is hardly insurmountable especially given how far we are from election day. I honestly think this is our best chance to open things up in the Pacific Northwest for the GOP, so in my mind this is absolutely a top-tier race.

Morning News Roundup

This is really late (but all what? 2 of you? could care less)...

• Not exactly mainstream news but intriguing and cool nonetheless. A Texas-based Christian archaeological organization claims to have found the remnants of Noah's Ark in the Elbruz Mountains of Iran. Of course it probably won't clear rigorous scientific testing, but it's always fun to see people looking for stuff like this.
• GOP beat the Dems in the annual Congressional Baseball Game yesterday, 12-1. A friend of mine promptly remarked "it's because you have more Ken-doll legislators in your party" - not sure what to make of that?
• Up in Rhode Island, Cranston Mayor and Republican Senatorial challenger Steve Laffey refused to attend his party's convention. Laffey's been under a lot of pressure lately to step out of the race and clear the field for incumbent Lincoln Chafee, but as of yet there is no sign he'll yield to that pressure.
• In my Hamdan v. Rumsfeld analysis yesterday I'm apparently on the otherside of the fence from the rest of the conservative pundit-world, with the exception of Berkely Law professor John Yoo (I think he and I agreed, I didn't catch the entire clip, I'll definitely clarify this!).
• The House passed a resolution decrying unnamed news sources (read: New York Times) for revealing the SWIFT program, simultaneously defending its legality. The resolution, authored by Mike Oxley (of Sarbanes-Oxley fame), passed 227-183 with only seventeen Democrats crossing the aisle...and they wonder why we call them weak on national security? Eight GOPers voted no, though most are the usual suspects like Ron Paul. Full text of the legislation and roll-call can be found here.
• The House also passed a bill yesterday allowing for offshore drilling (see yesterday's posts for a discussion). It passed 232-187, but is expected to fail in the Senate so long as the revenue-sharing provision remains intact as many see it as wasteful in this time of fiscal emergency. I'll be interested to see how Mary Landrieu votes on this considering her state of Louisiana could benefit significantly from such increased revenue.
• President Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Koizuimi will have a private tour of Graceland today; if you've ever seen the PM, his hair is mildly reminiscent of "The King."
• Argentina-Germany in a few minutes...should be an amazing game.
  

I hate to do this but...

Usually I link to stuff from the alternate-reality universe of Kos just for laughter's sake, but tonight I actually found an interesting and useful article there, so I'll copy it here for your reading pleasure. Basically, a Kossack with extensive campaign experience set out to compare the GOP and Democratic voter databases, Voter Vault and Demzilla respectively, and explore how the deeper GOP database, and the greater access to it by the party at all levels, contributed to success. Of course now that the secret's out among the grassroots, that probably means it's out among the party elite, and may mean that this Republican advantage will soon be nullified. Thankfully I don't think this is something you can fix overnight, but rather will take years and years (hopefully beyond the 2008 campaign!).

A Second Look at Hamdan v. Rumsfeld

Shortly after I'd taken a first look at SCOTUS's Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision this morning, I came across an interesting analysis on Captain's Quarters, wherein they cited part of the majority's opinion (written by Stevens), which I confirmed here and copied below.

We have assumed, as we must, that the allegations made in the Government's charge against Hamdan are true. We have assumed, moreover, the truth of the message implicit in that charge--viz., that Hamdan is a dangerous individual whose beliefs, if acted upon, would cause great harm and even death to innocent civilians, and who would act upon those beliefs if given the opportunity. It bears emphasizing that Hamdan does not challenge, and we do not today address, the Government's power to detain him for the duration of active hostilities in order to prevent such harm. But in undertaking to try Hamdan and subject him to criminal punishment, the Executive is bound to comply with the Rule of Law that prevails in this jurisdiction.

So what exactly does all of this mean? Basically, my interpretation (backed up by the far wiser folks over at CQ) is that Gitmo's legality, as well as the legality of indefinite detention, is not at all challenged by the Hamdan ruling. Even more meaningful for our prosecution of our struggle against terrorism, when attempting to try detainees, the US "is bound to comply with the Rule of Law" - however, they are in no way forced to bring them to trial. Thus what at first glance might seem a defeat for aggressive anti-terrorism is in fact something of a victory, though a sort of backhanded one. I'll let CQ have the last word:

I'm satisfied with that agreement. Lock all of them up until Islamofascists surrender or die. When the Islamist terror networks give up their war on the United States, then we will release them. Until then, they can remain in Guantanamo Bay or wherever we set up detention facilities for them.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Bush Defeated by Supreme Court

Breitbart's got the story here; Bush overstepped his authority in ordering military war crimes trials for Gitmo detainees the Court found. Stevens wrote the opinion.