Data Shows Durbin Vulnerable?

That's the claim from a poll cited on Illinois Review, which pegs the approval rating of the Senate's #2 Democrat at 49% favorable/24% unfavorable, and almost a dead heat (36%-33%) on whether he puts Illinois or Washington first.

As much as I'd love to see Durbin returned to private life, none of this data paints a picture of vulnerability by any stretch of the imagination. It's actually difficult to gauge any sort of vulnerability on Durbin's part due to a real paucity of polling data. No Senator's invulnerable, but Durbin's not exactly an endangered incumbent at present.

Oh and I treat these numbers with the greatest degree of skepticism because of the poll itself - only 400 respondents, MOE +/-4.9%, no notes as to who the pollster is etc.

An Open Seat in Illinois

The Crypt reports that seven-term Republican incumbent Ray Lahood of Illinois will not seek reelection. Despite its giving Bush 58% of the vote in '04, the D-Trip has already expressed interest. They'll need a good bit of luck, including Obama as the nominee. Though personally speaking, I'm not sure if I buy into the conventional wisdom that Obama's clinching the nomination will radically affect the state's political dynamics. In Obama's only statewide race, he admittedly garnered 70% of the vote - but he was running against Alan Keyes! I think a lot depends on who the GOP's nominee is - if it's Giuliani, the Obama Effect may be muted.

So far this is the only open-seat race in Illinois, and I don't think any others are likely to arise.

What Homefield Advantage?

If you listened to the buzz, you'd think Obama would be invincible in his home state. But a recent poll from ARG, reported by the Tribune, has Clinton within the margin of error: Obama 37%, Clinton 33%, MOE +/-4%. On the other side of the aisle, Giuliani's got a pretty commanding lead though Thompson's overtaken McCain.

Congressional Rematch

Last year in the northern suburbs of Chicago, Democrat Dan Seals gave Republican incumbent Representative Mark Kirk a run for his money. The funny thing about this race in the state's 14th district was its unexpected nature. Although the DCCC was targeting plenty of races around the country (including the nearby 6th District - Roskam and Duckworth), the 10th was largely ignored. Despite being largely ignored by the establishment, Seals ran a strong campaign; Kirk won 53-47, closer than most observers had expected.


Seals is back for a rematch, but he's got a primary challenger in Jay Footlik, a former Clinton administration aid. According to Politico, Kirk, Seals, and Footlik have all been fund raising at a frenzied pace. Combined with the fact that both the NRCC and DCCC will be pouring resources into the race, this'll be one to watch. Chicago's collar counties (basically suburbia) have been going purple over the last couple years as is the trend in suburban areas across the country (suburban Northern Virginia's move to the left helped both Kaine and Webb win there in 2005 and 2006); traditionally Republican voters have moved even further away from urban areas into "exurbia." This trend has been especially true of the 10th district, complicating Kirk's job.

In the big picture, watching the 10th will be instructive. If Republicans want to regain Congress and maintain their control of the White House, it's suburban districts and voters they'll have to win over.

UPDATE: I don't know why I didn't think of this sooner, but Rahm Emanuel is also a former Clinton staffer - perhaps he recruited an old buddy to run? Why? Is it because Seals is black in a predominantly white district? Ooh that'd make the CBC mad!

Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows

Though that phrase doesn't usually refer to husband and wife opponents. Both are running for the "moderate party" nomination and the honor to get beaten by Melissa Bean in the Illinois 8th. Bean's probably pretty well invulnerable this time around (the GOP's best chance of unseating her was last year), and it says something about the district that the Moderate Party can take more than five percent in the general.

(h/t PJM)

Illinois's Incompetent GOP

A professor once described the North Carolina Republican Party as a circular firing squad. The same could be said of the Illinois GOP, split as it is between moderates and conservatives, and with the threat of fractures emerging even among conservatives. Of course Rick Pearson's right, there is no better time to launch a revival than when the state's Democrats are at one another's throats in Springfield. There are also bigger underlying pressures - for example, Senator Dick Durbin and Mayor Daley aren't exactly warm friends, representing different wings of the Democratic Party. Chicago's collar counties are slowly going purple, and Republican incumbents at both the state and federal level there may come under serious electoral pressure if that shift isn't reversed.

A truly visionary program would focus not only on reviving the GOP's fortunes in suburbia but also trying to make inroads into Chicago's minority communities. Any statewide candidate has to win roughly a quarter of Chicago's votes (legal, that is, not the "vote early vote often" ones), which is presently almost impossible unless of course they effectively reach out to the city's blacks and Hispanics.