Does He Know Something We Don't?

Cleveland's former Boy Mayor, Dennis Kucinich, has told his supporters (whoever they may be) that if he doesn't garner sufficient support they should back Obama.

But in 2004, when he was more "popular," Kucinich told his adoring fans to back Edwards. Edwards, today at least, is far more in line with Kucinich's politics than Obama; the Illinois Senator seems downright conservative by the Cleveland Commie's perspective. Or does he know something we don't?

In any case, Kucinich's supporters may give Obama an edge in some parts of the state; every "vote" will count if the outcome is as close as some predict.

Huckabee's Awkward Moment Explained...Sort Of

As Iowa's caucuses are obscenely early - Iowa 3rd - New Year's and Christmas were both fair game for candidates. Yesterday's headlines were generally banal, until Mike Huckabee's press conference to unveil a negative ad which he refused to air but would still show to reporters. Sound contrived to anyone else? The press knew absurdity when they saw it, and guffawed at the former governor's contortions.

Now he's on FNC's Hannity and Colmes, and attempting to explain away yesterday's event. His excuse? He wanted the media to know he had it, that he wasn't just blowing smoke. BS. I'm no Huckabee supporter, far from it, but I'd call foul against any candidate this stupid. Perhaps Huckabee honestly wanted to keep this thing under wraps, in which case he screwed up; if his goal was to show his hand without the appearance of a true negative attack, it really was a ham-handed effort.

Ron Fournier's perspective, given his long career as an observer, is worth reading.

Thompson Grasping at Straws - And Getting A Big (?) Endorsement

Over the summer, I was briefly taken by a Fred Thompson candidacy - I liked his columns on Townhall, felt that he had an air of gravitas that was missing, and wondered whether he might be able to unite the Republican Party. I never entirely bought into the idea that he was Ronald Reagan reincarnate, but apparently his campaign still thinks he is. This time, their argument is that Thompson = Reagan because both can raise their hands. Or something. Anyways, that's what they have to say in a recent email:

Dear Friend of Fred, In the 1980 campaign, I worked for Ronald Reagan. I was proud to be part of his team. Now, I am just as proud to be part of Fred Thompson's team. That's why I am writing to seek your help today. In 1980, the defining moment for President Reagan was in a New Hampshire debate when he refused to kowtow to a belligerent moderator. Fred had a defining moment on Wednesday in the Iowa debate, when he refused the liberal moderator's demand to raise his hand to say yes or no to a complex question. The similarities were incredible. We have reached a critical juncture in the campaign--and we need you to step up once again. On Monday, Fred kicks off "The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down!" Bus Tour in Iowa. The tour will take Fred to 50 cities and towns across Iowa in the most aggressive retail campaigning of the whole campaign. Just in time for the Iowa caucuses on January 3! In fact, Fred will be there virtually the entire time except Christmas until the vote. We call it "The Clear Conservative Choice" tour because Fred is the only clear, consistent conservative in the race. He was conservative in the past, he is today and he will be so in the future. You can count on him. We just added the "Hands Down" to commemorate his dominating performance in the Wednesday debate. I believe this tour can make the difference in the Iowa caucuses. It will bring Fred in contact with thousands of caucus goers--it will build off the momentum of Fred's performance. Fred is really energized...and he's already come out swinging. But that's where you come in. We need "air cover" in the form of media for our tour and our first rate ground game. As you can imagine, Fred is the best on TV and his bold proposals have been highly praised by conservative publications and commentators. But we need additional funding for our final media push. Can you help? Could you contribute $25, 50, $100 or more today? Your contribution will help us get a powerful new ad on the air just as the caucuses conclude. We want 2400 donors in 24 hours to show the liberal media that we are tired of of their games. No More Hand Shows! Then send an e-card to all your friends and family letting them know you have had enough of the liberal media's games. Your help is crucial--can you respond immediately? Go here to contribute. I know things are tight this time of year, just before Christmas...BUT NOW IS WHEN WE NEED YOU THE MOST! Please make your contribution today. Help Fred keep his bandwagon rolling--and the momentum increasing! Just think about Fred's defining moment--and make your contribution now. The time is right--the time is NOW. Thanks so much for your help. Sincerely, William B. Lacy, Campaign Manager P.S. We're only 20 days away from the Iowa Caucuses. Your gift of $25, $50, $100, $500, $1000, or $2300 is crucial to Fred's success. Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

But is all lost for Thompson? Perhaps not - as Chris Cillizza reports, he's picked up the endorsement of Representative Steve King, one of the most conservative members of the House. Two things - first off, Cillizza's hyperlink refers to a King endorsement of Romney...? Second of all, does this dampen the buzz about Huckabee being the only conservative in the field? I hardly think it suggests that the Huckabuzz is overstated, unless King things Thompson's the more electable candidate. Basically, I think the Representative just squandered his influence. Oops.

Romney's Gamble

For months now, the Chatterati have been discussing whether or not Mitt Romney would have the gumption to give "the speech" - an address on his Mormon faith akin to JFK's famous airing of his "Catholic problem." Well, he's finally decided to roll the dice as CBS and the Politico report.

Both articles suggest - and my thoughts were similar before I read their take - that Romney's attempting to win back social conservatives who have recently been lured away by Mike Huckabee, and that Romney has also been goaded by Huckabee's recent performance in the polls.

That being said, I don't know if it's a wise gamble. Social conservatives attracted to Huckabee by his strong social stances (he's a Baptist minister after all) are, I think, unlikely to return to Romney. Huckabee's also likely helped among social conservatives who are feeling economically pinched - I've long believed his Bible-thumping populism to be a potent formula If Romney bombs, he's in real danger; if it's a home run, it still may have little effect.

Iowa Fireworks

Oh goody - the Des Moines Register has decided that having one crazy candidate (Ron Paul) on stage during presidential debates isn't enough. No, they need two - so they've gone ahead and invited repeat presidential candidate (and desperate Illinois Senate contender) Alan Keyes. Ed Morrissey's take on the story is worth reading.

However there seems to be a certain symmetry to this - Ron Paul represents the libertarian/socially moderate crazy wing of the party; Alan Keyes represents the religious zealotry/socially conservative crazy wing of the party.

Giuliani hasn't yet committed to this debate - wouldn't it be great if the other credible candidates backed out and left the stage to these two clowns? That isn't to call Tancredo and Hunter credible, just slightly more so than Crazy Uncle Ron and Keyes.

Huckabee Moves Into Two Spot

I've blogged a lot on Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who's starting to shake things up in Iowa.

Of course he was beginning to shake things up before the latest ABC/WaPo poll, released today: Huckabee polled at 24% - only 4 points behind Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the long-time leader in Iowa. The Post's piece rightly points out that much of Huckabee's boost came from Christian conservatives (which may factor into Giuliani's slump in their poll), but it'll be interesting to see if he gets a financial boost as well. ABC's story is long (4 pages) but worth at least skimming.

Obama Showing Signs of Life?

After a long while as merely one of the also-rans in Iowa, a new poll (only the second?) shows Obama in first in the Iowa caucuses. The poll has Clinton in first (31%) over Obama (25%) and Edwards (25%) among all Iowa Democrats. But when only "likely caucus-goers" (aka those crazy enough to go sit in a church basement and fight about this in January) are surveyed, Obama ekes out a narrow win over HRC and Edwards (28%-24%-22%). Politico's Ben Smith has a nice brief analysis on this here, including discussing the intricacies of that "likely caucus-goers" filter.

Newsweek also had this interesting caveat to temper any renewed sense of Obamamentum: "the poll suggests that Clinton’s supporters may be the strongest of the pack. A majority of her boosters (55 percent) say their support is “strong,” edging Obama (41 percent) and Edwards (37 percent)."

That being said, it'll be intriguing to see how the Clinton team plays the expectations game down the home stretch. Unless she's opened a commanding lead, the caucuses can still produce funny outcomes - and despite what this poll's strength of support numbers suggest, I've always believed that Edwards has a pretty strong core of supporters there. I love election season!

Ames Straw Poll

I didn't bother blogging during the event (largely because the outcome was a foregone conclusion), but yesterday was the heralded Ames Straw Poll. Amid the barbecue and Iowa-style pageantry, there were the politics. It was assumed that Mitt Romney would win easily, but the real question was how the rest of the field would shake out - whether a second tier candidate could have the sort of showing to catapult him into the first tier; whether any of the non-participating candidates (Giuliani, McCain, Fred Thompson) could still finish well without any overt campaigning.

Once the 14,302 ballots were tallied, the winner was no surprise. However, Romney took only 31.5% of the vote, far less than some had expected he'd get (and it would have been declared a major victory had he taken a true majority), but a win's a win, right? Second-place finisher Mike Huckabee's showing (18.1%) was quite respectable, especially given that Ames was more or less make-or-break for the former Arkansas governor.

The event's conservatism is evidenced in the support for Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo (15.3% and 13.7% respectively); its weirdness in its 1,305 (9.1%) for votes for Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Chris Cilizza was apparently live-blogging from the event, and most of his commentary is worth reading (no independent links, just check out the Fix).

Oh and for what it's worth, Ames just claimed its first victim - Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson dropped out, his sixth-place finish sealing his fate. Not that it makes a big difference, just that it won't confuse people when Fred Thompson jumps in next month.