Intriguing Possibility

A few weeks ago, the folks over at Hot Air brought attention to a new initiative of Mitt Romney's, an effort to become the "ideas factory" of the GOP and presumably pour some money into candidates. Can we say running again? (Which of course shows a lack of confidence in McCain's prospect). Any sort of unstructured group like a 527 is obviously ideal for Romney as he can dump unlimited amounts of his own cash in, though I didn't think he would.

I didn't think he would, at least until Chris Cillizza blogged about a new Republican soft money group calling itself the American Future Fund. It's not a 527 per se, rather it's a 501(c)(4), which according to CC means "it is a nonprofit that can engage in some political activity and is not required to disclose its donors, all of whom can give unlimited sums to the effort. It cannot directly advocate for or against a candidate and its pitch must be issue-centered." The emphasis is my own; issue-centered is exactly what Romney would be going for. Obviously, we don't know who's funding this group, but I immediately found myself wondering whether Mitt did indeed have a role.

That thought was strengthened when CC listed who was involved, a top-notch slate of Republican activists, most of whom were involved with Romney's campaign. It's entirely plausible that the ex-governor's behind this; he attempted something similar before his presidential campaign using his Commonwealth PAC, but that was limited. If he's behind the AFF, he can pick up some serious IOUs: IFF is on the air in Minnesota in support of threatened incumbent Senator Norm Coleman, and could do the same thing elsewhere.What's fascinating about this ad, as CC noted, is that it's issue-based; but it's not just issue-based, it plays up his record of bipartisanship in the Senate, an intriguing twist. Even if the NRSC had the money to go on the air up this early in the Gopher State, it'd either be attacks on Al Franken or pro-Coleman ads that might not play too well in such a purple state. The other value of this ad is that it puts Coleman astride the aisle, allowing for some pretty easy contrasts against Franken, who I think Merriam-Webster would define as left-wing extremist.

All in all, very curious.

More on Ron Paul's Fundraising

The Journal's Washington Wire puts Ron Paul's surprising fundraising success ($3 million in Q3) in perspective. He's done better than Mike Huckabee, yet the former Arkansas governor - but Huckabee at least placed well at the Ames straw poll.

What this piece doesn't mention is the contrast with John McCain, who apparently has some $2 million in debts - as well as enough raised this quarter to repay them if he chooses (no links now - also worth noting that he'll likely keep those on the books rather than throw away so much of his hard-won cash).

Marc Ambinder reviews the whole Republican field's fundraising successes (or lack thereof), though he makes no mention of Texas's craziest son. Giuliani's campaign still isn't releasing numbers, but given that Rudy's chief fundraiser was pink-slipped last week, they're below expectations. If the former mayor can't raise some serious cash by year's end, Romney and others will be able to attack his claims of electability on the money front...though truth be told, Romney can already do that.

Paul to Surprise Again?

Yesterday marked the end of the third quarter of FEC reporting, so we'll know in the near future how the presidential campaigns have done. Unsurprisingly, much of the chatter remains focused on Clinton and Obama both because Obama can generate serious amounts of cash from an enormous number of donors (and fail to turn it into success!) while Clinton's clearly the more establishment candidate.

The Republican side is less interesting because (among other things) no Republican, presidential or Congressional (or at least the NRCC and NRSC) can raise much. There's also the Romney factor - the ultra-wealthy ex-consultant can dump any amount of his enormous ($250 million?) fortune into his campaign if he so desires.

The shocker of last quarter was when crazy Texan Ron Paul finished with more cash on hand than John McCain. And it looks like Paul may surprise people again this quarter; his surprising success means he'll be able to compete (and in a weirdo state like New Hampshire, may actually get a fair amount of support), and makes struggling candidates like McCain look even more pathetic.

It's a Mad, Mad World

I didn't bother to blog much on the revelations of the McCain campaign's crash diet or its paltry fundraising success. But this I do find noteworthy: "Republican" [nutjob libertarian] Ron Paul has more cash on hand ($2.4 million) than John McCain does ($2 million).

$2.4M vs. $2M is pretty paltry when the next guy, Romney, is sitting on $12 million. But having more to use than McCain does give Paul a certain credibility, and means that we may have to endure his bizarre opinions for a few more debates. However, it remains to be seen if there is anything behind this - whether his poll numbers jump, whether he's building viable organizations on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina. I'm curious about how much of his fundraising totals came from non-Republicans (in terms of registration), but that's something FEC disclosures won't cover.

Paul also talks about how he feels like he's on the "upslope" compared to some other candidates who are already lagging - McCain - but as I said I don't think there's currently any metrics to determine the veracity of that statement. I do, however, think that all of McCain's recent troubles give more credence to the rumors that he'll quit the race by summer (unless of course Fred pulls out and endorses McCain, though is it possible the opposite could also happen?).

Republican Money Game

So the news about Hillary and Obama's fundraising successes have been well-documented in recent days. Now numbers from Republican candidates are coming out: Giuliani raised over $17 million, with $18 million on-hand; Romney raised $14 million (plus a $6.5 million loan) and has $12 million on hand.

What I'm still waiting to see are the numbers from Fred Thompson's as-yet unofficial campaign; some rumors have him as high as $10 million. Not bad for a guy who's not officially running.