Shows What I Know

Although nobody has officially called the race, it would appear that Hillary Clinton's caucus losing streak continues: with 78% of precincts reporting, Obama leads 59%-40%, or in real terms, 4,000 votes to 2,756 votes. As CNN's cool graphic shows, the majority of the counties have reported (with 2 exactly tied and fully reported); only five remain. Most of these are sparsely populated, with Sheridan being the most populous at 26,560 (thanks Wikipedia!). It would appear that Obama did well in the populous parts of the state (a relative term, I admit), while Clinton carried more rural areas. Still, she could pull it out. This is more about momentum than about delegates, so a loss isn't too crushing for her.

Still nothing from IL-14.

Three Events Today

Three events worth taking note of today:

1) Special election in the 14th CD of Illinois to replace retiring Representative Dennis Hastert. This isn't an especially juicy prize, as whoever wins will have to run again in November's general election. However, in a normally safe Republican district the Democrat is running almost even. Special elections such as this one are often considered bellwethers for the coming general - Paul Hackett's August '05 near-miss in the bright red Ohio 2nd presaged the Democratic gains in 2006. To that end, the NRCC has dumped almost 20% of their cash on hand into the race. Part of the GOP's issue here is their candidate - no one really likes Jim Oberweis, and if he wasn't a self-funder the party bosses likely would not have coalesced behind him like they did. Some of his attacks on his opponent have also been questionable in their accuracy. Democrat Bill Foster's also helped by the fact that Illinois is Obama country, and Obama's endorsed Foster; to me, at least, an Oberweis win may be another sign that Obama is losing some of his aura. Coverage from CQ (and CQ) and The Fix are worth reading. If the GOP's using its 72-hour GOTV program, I think Oberweis pulls out a narrow win.

2) The Wyoming Democratic Caucus. Wyoming Republicans caucused months ago - 2 days after Iowa to be exact. Democrats are only now getting around to it, but it's a lot more significant than the GOP contest which Romney won. There are eighteen delegates at stake, and for the life of me, I haven't found any polling on the race. Neither Kerry nor Gore cracked 30% in the state, but Republican Representative (the only one) Barbara Cubin's victory in 2006 was a relative squeaker. I think the outcome is a result of who shows up; fundamentally, I think it's a Clinton state: 89% white, a median income just under $38,000 (less than that of Ohio). But I also have to wonder about immigration to the state from elsewhere, specifically wealthy, liberal voters flocking to places like Jackson Hole. Obviously, they'll be Obama voters and thus could make things interesting. If Clinton wins, expect her to make a lot of noise about it - she hasn't won a primary in a long time. She also needs a win to slow Obama down a bit more; Tuesday's Mississippi primary is demographically Obama country. Coverage from the WaPo and the NYT is worth taking a look at, the latter piece describes essentially record turnout.

3) Duke-UNC: Go to Hell Carolina, Go to Hell! It's at Cameron Indoor, but Duke's been inconsistent of late (though they looked pretty good in their road win over UVA on Wednesday) and UNC's been looking pretty good. The Heels should also have their starting point guard back, though no word on whether he'll start or whether he's 100%. All that being said, Duke won in the Dean Dome by 11, raining 3 pointers. Assuming Demarcus Nelson doesn't get into foul trouble, and that the shooters aren't laying eggs all day long, it should be interesting. It's sort of a mismatch game as Carolina (really, Tyler Hansbrough) dominates the front court while Duke dominates the back court with legitimate marksmen in Paulus, Scheyer, Singler, and occasionally King; both teams have productive benches, and Scheyer has been known to have game-changing performances. Both teams also have that extra motivation. For Duke, it's a home game in the biggest rivalry in college hoops (if not college sports), and the last time senior captain Demarcus Nelson will step foot on Coach K Court. For Carolina, they're looking to protect their #1 ranking, as well as perhaps distract their fans from the tragic death of student body president Eve Carson. For both teams, the ACC regular season title is on the line. Duke's got their 6th man in the Cameron Crazies, so I'll (not entirely neutrally) give the Blue Devils the edge in this one - but expect it to be a classic.

A Passing Worth Noting and Mourning

I may not hate the Packers, however, I most certainly, utterly, despise UNC. But this morning I, along with the vast majority (if not the entirety) of the Duke community, are putting the hatred aside: yesterday morning, UNC student government president Eve Carson was shot and killed in a random and senseless act of violence.

I've got a handful of friends at UNC; Eve was not among them and in reading what's been written about her in the latest twenty-four hours, I'm indubitably the poorer for that. On ESPN this morning, they quoted UNC President (and former Clinton Chief of Staff) Erskine Bowles as saying she had more potential than anyone he had ever met. High praise, indeed. The Daily Tarheel's memorial wall is worth reading. The remarks by UNC-CH's chancellor are worth watching (I won't embed the video). But most of all, say a prayer for her friends and family who are left with a great, gaping hole in their lives.

The bitter, tragic irony of her death is that it came just two days before the second Duke-UNC game, this one within the walls of one of the greatest sports venues in the world. By all accounts, Eve was a rabid Tarheel fan and was no doubt was looking forward to the game. It had promised to be a titanic match-up, what with UNC point guard Ty Lawson expecting to play after being sidelined with an ankle injury in Duke's 11 point win in the Dean Dome. The regular-season ACC title is on the line, and UNC's the #1 team in the country. Don't think for a moment that this game will not be intense, probably a classic given how much there is on the line for both teams and the new motivation for Carolina.

But I think the focus for many people in the two communities separated by just eight miles will be elsewhere, on Eve. Although I'm glad it's going to be played in Cameron, in front of the Crazies, part of me wishes it was in the Dean Dome instead, so that UNC students had something to take their mind off of this tragedy if only for a few brief hours. She'll be remembered at the game with a moment of silence. I won't be surprised if Coach K, who wore a Wake Forest-colored tie in memory of the late Skip Prosser when Duke played Wake recently, has some subtle personal tribute of his own. GTHC, and RIP Eve Carson.

Brett Favre's Retirement Press Conference

I'm a Bears fan. As such I'm supposed to hate the Packers, Brett Favre, the Lambeau Leap, and cheeseheads. I do hate cheeseheads, but I've never been able to bring myself to hate Brett Favre. #4 has always been a class act, a fantastic competitor, a guy who put a great face on the sport even while others - the entire Cincinatti Bengals organization comes to mind - besmirched its reputation. Yes, he kicked us around the NFC North, but then again we deserved to be kicked around.

His leadership of the team this year was amazing; after nearly retiring last season, with a receiving corps composed of nobodies, they went 13-3. (Two of those losses, I must note, were to a Bears squad that otherwise did nothing of note.) He took them to the NFC Championship game, which everyone expected they'd win, but they lost to a destiny-driven Giants team.

What all of this means is that I'm truly sad to see him hang up his cleats. All his best qualities were on display in his retirement press conference.

On to the Aaron Rodgers era.

Live-Blogging Rezko

The Tribune's doing it here; sadly it doesn't seem to have an associated RSS feed.

Oh and did Rezko pay to play for an Iraqi contract? It's not just his political ties that are so interesting, it's these foreign ties...which raises the question of the origin of that money he loaned to Barack Obama.

Obama, Tony Rezko and More!

Although the majority of Americans won't notice them right away, clouds are beginning to gather behind Barack Obama. The line of attack, or at least of questioning since day 1 has been simple: how in God (aka Mike Ditka)'s name did Obama rise so fast in Chicago's political machine? He got some lucky breaks in South Side politics, yes, including throwing his political mentor (and state senate predecessor) under the bus.* But any Chicagoan for whom Obamamania didn't require psychiatric evaluation has and had doubts. The media's starting to get on the trail, both in the city itself and nationally - and while it's only the Journal right now, events in coming weeks means that it'll be hard for the others to follow suit.

John Fund wrote a worthwhile piece for yesterday's Opinion Journal asking that question, especially with regard to indicted Chicago fixer Tony Rezko. But it's deeper than just Rezko - who will soon stand trial - and the story of Obama's dream house, which has actually received some play in the media. It also ties in one of Rezko's close partners, a secretive Iraqi-born billionaire property developer, who may or may not have had dealings with Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War. Rezko himself, Fund notes, "traveled 26 times to the Middle East between 2002 and 2006, mostly to his native Syria and other countries that lack extradition treaties with the U.S."

Barring hard evidence of wrongdoing - or at least sufficiently damning circumstantial evidence, it's hard to push this line of questioning too far without giving the Obama campaign a prime pushback opportunity; they'll just claim it's the old "Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim" story in a new burqua.

John Kass is one of the Tribune's most undervalued columnists, nationally speaking. But I have a feeling that if there turns out to be any juice in the Rezko trial, he'll quickly become pretty famous. He isn't so much conservative as he is contrarian - an old-school political muckraker raking the muck around an old-school political machine.

His latest column asks one of the big questions to non-Chicagoans: why isn't the McCain campaign more outwardly jubilant about the pending trial? The reason: it's Chicago and everyone pays to play - and Rezko could easily take down Republicans as well as Democrats (potentially including Governor Rod Blagojevich, an Obama ally). One of those Republicans may be Bob Kjellander, an RNC committeeman.

Thus the McCain campaign's unwillingness to pop the champagne too soon becomes evident: if a big elephant goes down too, that may be the part that dominates the media headlines (especially if Obama doesn't take any serious hits); worse, that Republican might have donated to McCain.

But there are other reasons for McCain & Co. to back off. Letting the trial run its course, and claim its victims, will generate its own media maelstrom. They may have to give it a gentle nudge once in a while, but odds are this one will generate headlines. Further, as Charlie Cook noted yesterday, they're understaffed and underfunded; a trial that may or may not blow Obama up isn't their primary worry at the moment.

*I realized that I made reference to this without it being a well-known phenomenon. I wasn't aware, either, till the Politico buried it on p.2 of that story about Obama's ties to unrepentant members of the Weather Underground; I'll go ahead and quote it in full: "The exact date [of a meeting between Obama and the terrorists] is not known, but it was in the second half of 1995, before Palmer’s [his predecessor and mentor] decision — late in her losing congressional primary against Jesse Jackson Jr. — to jump back into the special election for her state Senate seat. (Her decision produced a rift between her and Obama, who was able to get her thrown off the ballot on technical grounds.)" That's change you can believe in!

A Sad Blogosphere Development

[I'd meant to mention this days ago...] Ed Morrissey has long been one of the best conservative bloggers out there, providing fantastic analysis and insights as the Captain of Captain's Quarters.

He's now packed up his bags and is blogging over at HotAir. I don't particularly like the HotAir layout, but the move unites him with Allahpundit - thus making a pretty dynamic duo. I've removed CQ from my blogroll and added HotAir.

Speaking of Social Networking

Two things I touched on in my last post were the increasing prevalence of Internet-ready phones and the power of social networking sites such as Facebook.

I'm not the only one talking about that - Apple's got a new iPhone ad that only talks about Facebook on your iPhone.

Besides being the typical brilliant, effective, stylish Apple ad (I swear they have the best ads in the world right now), it's a pitch to a younger crowd than may already be toting the thing (which I'm in love with). But it's also targeted at a certain demographic of this younger crowd - as I'd noted last year, Facebook is used largely by a younger, preppier, more affluent crowd than MySpace. Which is to say I don't expect to see an iPhone MySpace ad anytime in thenear future.

The Internet and Politics

Say what you will about Obama, he's inarguably running the most tech-savvy campaign this cycle. Both he and McCain have slick, visually appealing websites, which is the least you'd expect from a pair of presidential contenders.

But McCain is still a few years behind the cutting-edge applications of the Internet in the political realm (surprising for a guy who made the most of the Internet in his insurgent campaign back in 2000). He's got everything you would want, including omnipresent donation links, if you're older than thirty or so. But his ability to get news to you is limited, and he boasts only a video archive that is on the same menu as print-news stories. His campaign blog isn't bad, but his RSS feeds are sorely under-subscribed. The site also lacks links to his presence on Facebook, Myspace, LinkedIn, and other social networking sites, as well as widgets for blogs or websites (something I emailed the campaign about). There's a noticeable absence of action links on every page - nothing about calling other voters or volunteering; it's focused more on winning your vote than getting you to sway others. It's a website for an older generation, and cedes the e-edge and the initiative among youth voters to Obama.

Obama's website, by contrast, is absolutely masterful. His blog is more picture- and video-intensive than McCain's. Whereas Mac's is largely devoted recently to refuting the Times story, and hasn't been updated since 2/25, Obama's has been updated five times today and addresses several different topics. He's got the volunteer and phone links on every page, as well as the donate links. He has a separate tab for states, so you can find what's going on in your hometown and get involved. And the coolest? Under the media tab, he's got a whole package of mobile options. The ability to download Barack ring tones just creeps me out, but the ability to get policy updates texted to your cell phone is the new frontier of tech-savvy campaigning. It's actually fast becoming redundant as the proliferation of Internet-ready cellphones means that email is always accessible, but it's still fascinating. It's not just updates, however, which some other candidates (such as Steve Sauerberg) boast, it's the fact that you can receive updates on specific policies. It's self-selected micro-targeting via an always-connected medium. Oh and of course there are links to Facebook/MySpace/LinkedIn and every other social network you can think of (and some I've never heard of), as well as widgets.

I'd never vote for Barack, but Republicans looking to be competitive in the new realm of political competition need to look at Obama's site. It recognizes the power of the Internet and breaks further away from the traditional media to media that focus on the individual consumer and on how they want to get their information. In a word, it's effective.