Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows

But within a party, this may be the strangest yet: Obama's stumping for the Old Man of the Senate, Robert Byrd. Now that's all well and good - party members stump for eachother regularly - but Obama is only the Senate's sole black man, and Byrd a former KKK member. Either Obama truly buys into Byrd's shtick about his membership being a political necessity back in the day (isn't that a sign that you might want to work for another line of work? Did they hold fundraiser lynchings?), or he's holding his nose in a big way. But this also says a little something else to me - even though Byrd looks ready to romp to reelection (I've said before only death will take this man from his seat), someone's a little nervous if they're pulling out the big guns like Obama for $5k a head.

Primary Preview

Let's start with the less complicated of tomorrow's two high-profile primaries. In Rhode Island, as I blogged last Wednesday, two polls are painting two different numbers. I still think the NRSC's numbers from Public Opinion Surveys might be closer to the fact, especially since there is no doubt in my mind that Chafee will have a significantly better turnout operation. But should Laffey win, no one dares suggest that the GOP can hold this one. The DSCC and Sheldon Whitehouse's hopes are pinned on Chafee going down in flames; if he holds on, it's going to be a great race.

Let's turn our eyes to the border and the Arizona 08 where retiring Republican Jim Kolbe is giving
the DCCC one of their best pickup chances of the cycle. On the left, it looks like Gabrielle Giffords will wrap up the Democratic nomination. But the real fight is on the right, between former Kolbe challenger Randy Graf (a true conservative) and Steve Huffman (a more moderate Republican) who has the backing of both Kolbe (or at least Kolbe has said that Graf is too conservative to win in the district) and the NRCC. Problem is all of this is backfiring; not only is Huffman's campaign poorly run, some analysis suggests that Graf will better motivate the base. More than that, according to a friend of mine observing the race closely, "Huffman's excessive use of negative campaigning has also turned off a great deal of the electorate to him" to the point that he's at risk of splitting the GOP base in a district that is already less than bright red. But according to my friend, Huffman's problems only get worse from here:

Huffman has also been very short on public appearances this campaign season. This could be because he is such a poor public speaker and a weak presence. It is difficult to see him as "congressional" and against a stronger Gabrielle Giffords (the likely Democratic nominee for the seat), he may be torn to pieces in any sort of debate. Randy Graf (currently the leader in the polls for the Republican nomination by more than 10 points) has been written off by many as having no chance of winning in a general election. However, more good may come from his nomination. Graf's supporters are extremely passionate about his election and would fight hard for his victory, more so than Huffman's from my personal experience. In addition, the other three candidates (Mike Hellon, Frank Antenori, and Mike Jenkins) all have pledged to support Randy should he win. Randy is far more confident, a better speaker, and a stronger presence than Steve Huffman, and this will certainly help him in any sort of debate.

So the NRCC has picked the politically palatable moderate who happens to be a stiff, over someone with better base credentials and more charisma - does anyone else see this as a sign of extreme nervousness? After all, they have an unabashed conservative at the top of the ticket in Jon Kyl, and while the 8th is more liberal than other parts of the state, a well-motivated candidate might still hold the district. Chris Cilizza said today that this race would vaunt into the top 2 House races should Graf win, meaning that Cilizza thinks it's likely to flip blue. But voices on the ground are saying otherwise. Bottom line? Kolbe had a lot of success here; the NRCC picked someone who might be his ideological heir, but they may have picked the wrong man. No matter how tomorrow turns out, the GOP isn't out of the woods just yet.