Tennessee Primary Predictions

So today (yes Thursday) the fine people of Tennesse will go to the polls. The only primary I'm really concerned about is the Republican Senate primary as the GOP seeks its candidate for the retiring Senator Frist's seat. If you haven't been paying attention it's a three way contest between former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (whose daughter infamously appeared on wonkette a while back), Van Hilleary (honestly don't know what this guy does) and Ed Bryant, a former Congressman. Hilleary and Bryant are generally viewed as the conservatives in the field, a fact that is certainly to Corker's benefit. Most polls I've seen have Corker winning, presumably because the other two are splitting the conservative bloc between them. However, the campaign has apparently turned nasty of late, which may place added emphasis on get out the vote operations. A poll released about ten days ago showed Corker up by 11% but with a 7% MOE, findings that are apparently consistent with Corker's internals but hotly disputed by the others' campaigns.

On the other side of the aisle, the Dems have succesfully cleared the way for their chosen candidate, Representative Harold Ford. Ford, whose family are essentially the Kennedys of Memphis, is educated, articulate, young, and black. In the South, this last factor may prove decisive. Ford is running as a moderate, though the GOP loudly disputes that assertion; regardless, he seems pretty popular with average Tennesseans (though this may be in part a reaction to the nastiness among GOPers).

As crazy as it seems, I can't bring myself to write off a black Democrat in Tennessee. Although all three Republicans lead Ford according to a Rasmussen report, Corker boasts the largest lead 49%-37%. Although a Ford poll conducted by Zogby disputes that, showing Ford up, the margin is so slim, and the poll's lack of sample data, that I'm disregarding it. But it still comes down to this: a Corker win tommorow and this seat is pretty much sewn up for the GOP; a surprise by Hilleary and and Bryant, and ladies and gentlemen, we have a race.

Cilizza's preview can be found here.

When I'm not dog-tired, I'll find some primary poll data.

Hope and Trepidation in the Congo

So for only the second time since independence from Belgium, Congolese citizens went to the polls yesterday. Although we won't know anything for weeks (can you imagine the lather our pundits would work themselves into in such a situation?), twenty-five million voted. However, like an election in our own backyard, the outcome of the Congolese election threatens to be problematic. The nation has suffered two wars in the last ten years, so merely holding an election is in its own way a triumph. But, tragically, the public doesn't seem to understand that an election's outcome is binding and if one's tribe or ethnic bretheren isn't happy, the appropriate recourse isn't to take to the streets, gun in hand. The unelected incumbent, Joseph Kabila, appears to be the front-runner, though some indicate a great degree of hostility towards him, stemming partially from his failure to provide for the average Congolese. Indeed, according to the Washington Post, many claim that this election is rigged in favor of Kabila. But unlike most allegedly rigged elections, the majority of people seem unconvinced, or at least unwilling to accept that claim. Tellingly, 9,000 people stood for parliament, a sign that many Congolese believe in the process. Regardless of the outcome, be it Kabila or a challenger, I think the most important indicators of stability in this nation far too accustomed to bloodshed will be whether or not the announcement of a victor is greeted with violence. There was only minimal strife leading up to election day (perhaps in part because of the 17,000 UN peacekeepers); future quiet will bode well for the future.

Senatorial Sanity?

I never thought I'd see the day when I'd be applauding Chuck Schumer's actions, but today might be that day! According to a report in the New York Sun, a source close to the nutball from New York says there will be no fillibuster of John Bolton's confirmation. Yes, Bolton currently is serving as US ambassador to the UN, but only as a recess appointment; he must now be confirmed by the Senate. The report from Schumer's office, if true, means that he'll quickly be voted in (though if I had to guess, largely along party lines). But the report isn't the herald of a return to sanity among Democrats, who still quietly adore the UN and believe it's working (lalala I can't hear you lalala seems to be their refrain when confronted with details like, oh, the oil-for-food scandal and its kickbacks). Rather, I think the Bolton decision is election-year politicking, primarily to avoid riling up the Republican base (who feel that the UN is broken and a waste of money, "rat hole" was the term that Ron Paul used, I believe). Of course for the GOP it's a welcome break as it won't force moderate Senators into the unenviable position of having to vote for cloture. What will be interesting to see is how Joe Lieberman votes. I suspect, being a man of principle, he'll vote for Bolton despite the likely pressure from the Lamont/Kos crowd to do otherwise.