Webb Plays the Comedian

James Webb has come out with another side-splitter: he claims that the GOP cannot win in Iraq, that they cannot "extract the United States from a bloody quagmire of their own making" (article, not Webb's words, but perhaps his sentiments). Perhaps, just perhaps, that's true. But are the Democrats any different? They refuse to stay and win this critical engagement in our War on Terror - wait, they can't even agree on whether or not to cut and run! It's tragic, I could like and respect Webb if he hadn't turned into such a stooge of Schumer, Kerry and Co.

New Numbers in Washington

Last time I saw polling numbers in the Washington Senate, incumbent Cantwell was up on McGavick 44%-40% (with, I assume, 16% undecided). New numbers from Strategic Vision shows roughly the same situation, Cantwell 47%, McGavick 43%, Undecided 10%. Clearly this race is tightening up, but even then a 4pt difference is hardly insurmountable especially given how far we are from election day. I honestly think this is our best chance to open things up in the Pacific Northwest for the GOP, so in my mind this is absolutely a top-tier race.

Morning News Roundup

This is really late (but all what? 2 of you? could care less)...

• Not exactly mainstream news but intriguing and cool nonetheless. A Texas-based Christian archaeological organization claims to have found the remnants of Noah's Ark in the Elbruz Mountains of Iran. Of course it probably won't clear rigorous scientific testing, but it's always fun to see people looking for stuff like this.
• GOP beat the Dems in the annual Congressional Baseball Game yesterday, 12-1. A friend of mine promptly remarked "it's because you have more Ken-doll legislators in your party" - not sure what to make of that?
• Up in Rhode Island, Cranston Mayor and Republican Senatorial challenger Steve Laffey refused to attend his party's convention. Laffey's been under a lot of pressure lately to step out of the race and clear the field for incumbent Lincoln Chafee, but as of yet there is no sign he'll yield to that pressure.
• In my Hamdan v. Rumsfeld analysis yesterday I'm apparently on the otherside of the fence from the rest of the conservative pundit-world, with the exception of Berkely Law professor John Yoo (I think he and I agreed, I didn't catch the entire clip, I'll definitely clarify this!).
• The House passed a resolution decrying unnamed news sources (read: New York Times) for revealing the SWIFT program, simultaneously defending its legality. The resolution, authored by Mike Oxley (of Sarbanes-Oxley fame), passed 227-183 with only seventeen Democrats crossing the aisle...and they wonder why we call them weak on national security? Eight GOPers voted no, though most are the usual suspects like Ron Paul. Full text of the legislation and roll-call can be found here.
• The House also passed a bill yesterday allowing for offshore drilling (see yesterday's posts for a discussion). It passed 232-187, but is expected to fail in the Senate so long as the revenue-sharing provision remains intact as many see it as wasteful in this time of fiscal emergency. I'll be interested to see how Mary Landrieu votes on this considering her state of Louisiana could benefit significantly from such increased revenue.
• President Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Koizuimi will have a private tour of Graceland today; if you've ever seen the PM, his hair is mildly reminiscent of "The King."
• Argentina-Germany in a few minutes...should be an amazing game.
  

I hate to do this but...

Usually I link to stuff from the alternate-reality universe of Kos just for laughter's sake, but tonight I actually found an interesting and useful article there, so I'll copy it here for your reading pleasure. Basically, a Kossack with extensive campaign experience set out to compare the GOP and Democratic voter databases, Voter Vault and Demzilla respectively, and explore how the deeper GOP database, and the greater access to it by the party at all levels, contributed to success. Of course now that the secret's out among the grassroots, that probably means it's out among the party elite, and may mean that this Republican advantage will soon be nullified. Thankfully I don't think this is something you can fix overnight, but rather will take years and years (hopefully beyond the 2008 campaign!).

A Second Look at Hamdan v. Rumsfeld

Shortly after I'd taken a first look at SCOTUS's Hamdan v. Rumsfeld decision this morning, I came across an interesting analysis on Captain's Quarters, wherein they cited part of the majority's opinion (written by Stevens), which I confirmed here and copied below.

We have assumed, as we must, that the allegations made in the Government's charge against Hamdan are true. We have assumed, moreover, the truth of the message implicit in that charge--viz., that Hamdan is a dangerous individual whose beliefs, if acted upon, would cause great harm and even death to innocent civilians, and who would act upon those beliefs if given the opportunity. It bears emphasizing that Hamdan does not challenge, and we do not today address, the Government's power to detain him for the duration of active hostilities in order to prevent such harm. But in undertaking to try Hamdan and subject him to criminal punishment, the Executive is bound to comply with the Rule of Law that prevails in this jurisdiction.

So what exactly does all of this mean? Basically, my interpretation (backed up by the far wiser folks over at CQ) is that Gitmo's legality, as well as the legality of indefinite detention, is not at all challenged by the Hamdan ruling. Even more meaningful for our prosecution of our struggle against terrorism, when attempting to try detainees, the US "is bound to comply with the Rule of Law" - however, they are in no way forced to bring them to trial. Thus what at first glance might seem a defeat for aggressive anti-terrorism is in fact something of a victory, though a sort of backhanded one. I'll let CQ have the last word:

I'm satisfied with that agreement. Lock all of them up until Islamofascists surrender or die. When the Islamist terror networks give up their war on the United States, then we will release them. Until then, they can remain in Guantanamo Bay or wherever we set up detention facilities for them.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Bush Defeated by Supreme Court

Breitbart's got the story here; Bush overstepped his authority in ordering military war crimes trials for Gitmo detainees the Court found. Stevens wrote the opinion.

Morning News Roundup

• Dana Milbank has a great look in today's Post at Obama and faith (I posted a similar article again but this one's as good if not better). Jim Wallis hosted the event, and apparently Obama was far more impressive than Hillary. Whether or not Obama runs is probably influenced by whether or not the Clintonites still active in the party can prevent him from doing so.
• National Review has a piece on this fall's Senate races. While I generally agree with his analysis (and Connecticut's race should be a lot of fun to watch), as well as putting New Jersey in the toss-up column (George Will had a great piece on Tom Kean Jr.'s campaign), a few nitpicky points. First of all, I'd put Washington in the toss-up column - an incumbent with only a 4pt lead and an opponent whose never held office before? Those kinds of numbers are a Democrat seat ripe for red conversion. Also, out in Nebraska, although I haven't seen a whole ton of polling data, I have a feeling Pete Ricketts may have the ability to surprise people.
• The House is set to vote today on offshore drilling in domestic waters, opening up the 100-200 mile band everywhere and leaving the waters within 100 miles up to the individual discretion of the states. Some complain that industries such as tourism and fishing will be harmed, but at that distance I don't think they can see the rigs...but that probably never crossed their mind. Also, from my experience in Texas, for small-time fishermen rigs are a great place to look for fish - they might actually benefit. However the concern that I (shockingly) find myself most agreeing with is the one voiced by the Natural Resources Defense Council among others, that this will not end our addiction to oil. What should be done is earmarking a certain percentage of the royalties from the program (to be divided among state and federal coffers) for further R&D into renewable energy. I suspect state governments won't have too much of a problem with this as it will also fill their coffers at a time when many states are hurting. According to sources, the bill will pass the House but might have a tougher time in the Senate.
• In some of the most hopeful news I've heard out of the Middle East lately, Kuwaiti women are not just voting in elections for the first time today, they're also running for office. That makes women voting members of the electorate in 4 of the 6 Gulf states, four of five if one counts the UAE which doesn't have elections. All of this is occuring over the strenuous complaints of conservative Islamists; all I can say is that this is another victory for political liberalism in a region so badly in need of it.
• South Koera is finally threatening to do something if North Korea carries out its threat to test a missile; unfortunately that something is to cut off food aid. That's a move that a) probably won't influence Kim Jong-Il's thinking at all and b) will really only affect the already-famine affected people of North Korea, not the government itself.
• CSM has an interesting piece on the French debate over immigration and assimilation, similar to our own issues but with the difference that their are Muslim with all of the additional challenges that presents.

That's all for now folks, enjoy.

Another piece on Chavez

Ominous piece from a newsource I don't trust so much, but considering I don't read Korean I guess I have to. Apparently Chavez plans to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong-Il soon in part of his broader effort to piss off the US; South Korean press suggests that an oil-for-missiles deal might be part of the negotiations. Whether or not these are nuclear, a missile-capable Venezuela is not something I'm comfortable with.

Mexican Election Looming

Houston Chronicle's got a good piece covering the last day of campaigning in the Mexican presidential campaign to replace Vicente Fox of the National Action Party. The Chronicle correctly points out the election's ramifications for the US, as

"[t]he election will determine whether Mexico joins Latin America's rising tide of charismatic leftist leaders or continues on a path of fiscal conservatism and unbridled free trade."

I'm not entirely sure how the populist Obrador, a likely ally for Venezuelan calderon (only slight hyperbole), if he is victorious, will affect the flood of immigrants coming into the US. While his rhetoric and his attempts to equalize Mexican society (which will no doubt be done in a heavy-handed manner) might assuage potential immigrants worries about their future, it is unlikely that he will prove cooperative in our attempts to engage Mexico in any serious negotiations about choking off the flow of illegals. It's also worrisome to to contemplate another Chavez on our border, though unlike in Venezuela and Bolivia, there are no energy assets to nationalize.

Chemical Weapons Used Against Israel?

Reuters reports that the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade claims it fired a chemical weapons-tipped rocket into Israel. IDF currently has no comment, but that they would claim such a thing is pretty remarkable. Most importantly, it shows that Mahmoud Abbas, "President" of Palestine and head of the Fatah movement, isn't able to control his own militants. With the passing of Sharon and the old guard, the Palestinians had an opportunity to make a cogent press for statehood - instead they've resorted to violence against Israel and among themselves...typical.

Good News in Old Virginia

First polling data I've seen on the Allen-Webb contest this fall shows Allen beating Webb handily, exactly what I'd expect and hope for.

Question asked of 533 likely voters, MoE +/-4.3%
"If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker or some other candidate?"
56% Allen
37% Webb
2% Parker
3% Other
3% Undecided

Braindead?

For a fun lefty view of history, half-depressing, half-hilarious, I'd recommend this from one of the braindead Kossacks today.

The Moonbats are at it Again!

Howard Dean said today that we're headed back to the 1960s, and I think he's right. Some crew of fringe lunatics (probably those without gainful employment, an education at someplace that encourages fact over Marxist ideology, and a strong suspicion of being insane) are organizing nationwide "teach-ins" to make the case for impeaching the President, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, and others. All of this of course is founded on the fallacious belief that Bush willingly and knowingly lied about Iraq's WMDs, beliefs that are further disproven with every passing day. All of this of course requires that the Demos take back the House in the fall, so please, let's make sure to keep the map red.

SWIFT - Perspective, Fallout, and What You Can Do

If you live in a cave, I'll quickly summarize: last week, New York Times and LA Times, great patriots that they are, leaked the classified details of a program known as SWIFT by which the Treasury Department tracked the worldwide transfer of terrorist funds. Congress knew about, and signed off on, this program - thus there has been little more than a whimper from Democrats (in contrast to the NSA wiretapping program).

As mentioned in the morning roundup, House Republicans are considering a rather meaningless piece of legislation to slap the Times on the wrist. Thankfully, it looks like the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is sniffing around something more, having called for a damage study on the effects of the leak. Of course the usual crowd of fools - ACLU, European human rights crowds (since when are unions a human right?), etc. have already gotten in on the act. Great.

If you want Congress to really do something about this, I suggest you give one of the following a call (or your own Representative or Senator). I'll list only the Republicans on each committee.
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Roberts: (202) 224-4774
Hatch: (202) 224-5251
Dewine: (202) 224-2315
Bond: (202) 224-5721
Lott: (202) 224-6253
Snowe: (202) 224-5344
Hagel: (202) 224-4224
Chambliss: (202) 224-3521

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Hoekstra: (202) 225-4401
LaHood: (202) 225-6201
Everett: (202) 225-2901
Gallegly: (202) 225-5811
Wilson: (202) 225-6316
Davis: (202) 225-4261
Thornberry: (202) 225-3706
McHugh: (202) 225-4611
Tiahrt: (202) 225-6216
Rogers: (202) 225-4872
Renzi: (202) 225-2315
Issa: (202) 225-3906

Wednesday Roundup (Dems)

Call me lazy, but I'm just going to reiterate my rankings from last week.

UPDATE
I may just have to give Obama some more serious consideration...coming on top of the Democrats uncomfortable acknowledgement of the fact that they must reach out to middle America to triumph in 2008, an AP piece examines Obama and faith. Call me crazy but the man may just be running as the candidate who can talk to the average American.

Wednesday Roundup (GOP)

1. John McCain: A Senate compromise on immigration might take some of the heat he's been feeling on that issue off. Really, he moves into the top slot only because he hasn't given me a reason to bump him down. (Last week: 2)
   
2. Mitt Romney: Romney's sounding a cautionary note on the ability of the GOP to maintain a majority of gubernatorial seats this fall, and as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, he may be implicated in such an outcome. Also, as I see Warner flounder without direction, I realize that Romney's going to have to make a major pitch as to his relevancy; that he's failed to do so thus far is hurting him (Last week: 2)
3. Rudy Giuliani: Rudy's face is showing up on banner ads across the Internet, raising his profile but also showing he's interested. He'll have to do the same sort of wooing that McCain has with the religious right though before he climbs any higher. (Last week: 4)
   
4. George Allen: Senator Allen still has his hands full in Virginia, but his one-space drop was mostly a result of Giuliani more than him. (Last week: 3)
5. Tossup: I can't think of anyoen who really has a claim at the 5th spot, it's the 4 and the rest...hopefully thinks might straigthen out a little by next week.

Best of the Rest (in no particular order): Pataki, Rice, Huckabee, Tancredo, Frist

Whoopsie of the Day

Angel Maturino Resendiz, the "Railroad killer" convicted in 14 murders and who claimed he was half-man and half-angel and thus couldn't be killed, was executed yesterday. Guess he got that one wrong, huh?

Best Picture of the Day

Bush and a soldier who lost both legs in Iraq jogging yesterday on the South Lawn.

UPDATE
The soldier, Staff Sergeant Christian Bagge, was with the Oregon National Guard at the time of the attack (an IED). Since then he's not only undergone 11 surgeries, he's also reenlisted in the regular Army. Wow - thank God for our soldiers.

Morning News Roundup

Not getting out of bed early enough to get these done before coming to the office so they're a little later these days...on to the news.

• In another test of the strength of fervor over the immigration issue yesterday, Republican incumbent Representative Chris Cannon (UT-3) beat back a primary challenger by 14 pts, far more than polling had indicated. The challenge was promopted by Cannon's seemingly soft views on immigration.
• Speaking of immigration, Washington Times reports that Senators may finally be coming around to a "borders first" policy that would delay any discussion of amnesty or a guest-worker program until that crucial first step has been taken. Hopefully, such a compromise will end the House-Senate stalemate and put some sort of meaningful immigration reform bill on the President's desk before November.
• In a half-heart-warming story, House Republicans are starting to talk about maybe, possibly passing some weak legislation slapping the Times on the wrist for leaking the SWIFT story...hardly what I think is appropriate, but write your Congressmen and Senators and tell them that revealing secrets during war time, especially when these secrets have been cleared by Congress, is a vile act and one that should be punished harshly (this coming on top of the President's ringing condemnation yesterday).
• In what really is heartening news, as we see the first sign of real serious policy discussion in Congress in ages, the President is calling for a reexamination of Social Security reform and further tax reform. While the cuts may just be a partisan issue, and should be approached carefully, the White House and Republican leadership needs to do a far better job of laying out the need for reform to the American people. However, it also looks like the Senate is backing off on another try at the death tax, even though Frist and Co. are getting pressured by their House counterparts.
• Israel went into Gaza last night, decisively so. When will the Palestinian people realize that they're the ones most inconvenienced by such incursions, while the Hamas tomfoolery thtat sparked it is largely unpunished? I think it will be interesting to see how Olmert handles this crisis; he is the first Israeli PM not to be of the founding generation. Sharon was a war hero and veteran, having taken up arms for Eretz Israel on multiple occasions. Ben-Gurion once told him that "it doesn't matter what the world says about Israel, it doesn't matter what they say about us anywhere else. The only thing that matters is that we can exist here on the land of our forefathers. And unless we show the Arabs that there is a high price to pay for murdering Jews, we won't survive." That sort of perspective also characterized Sharon late into his political life, whether or not it holds true for Olmert remains to be seen.
  

Flag-Burning Amendment Fails

By a single vote today, the proposed flag-burning amendment again came to a halt in the Senate, with three Republicans voting against it. Yet as my friend pointed out, the long-term consequences of the failure implicitly favor the Republicans as we can trot it out again next year or the year after, whatever it takes to mobilize our base (though what we use to motivate them after we succeed in passing it I'm not sure)...yet perhaps he's being a little too cynical about my party's motives. Also of note is the fact that the majority of Democrats in competitive Senate races this fall voted for the ban - both Nelsons, Menendez, and Stabenow. The only real surprise was the absence of Cantwell - but with the troubles on her left flank, it may not be so short-sighted a move after all. Also, the three Republican nays (McConnell, Bennett, and Chafee) weren't at all surprising; Chafee's vote will harm him in his primary but no doubt reflects the feelings of the vast majority of Rhode Islanders.

More from the Middle East

So not only has Hamas kidnapped a 19 year-old soldier, it now appears that the Palestinian Resistance Committees (PRC) have kidnapped an 18 year-old settler in revenge for targeted killing of its leadership by the IDF.

With the soldier, Palestinian Chairman Abbas is telling his PM (a Hamas member) that he'll be targeted by the Israelis along with the rest of his terrorist bretheren. Why Hamas carries out such actions is beyond me, the constant infighting in the Palestinian territories have shown an inability for self-government. Israel, in my eyes, has effectively a carte blanche to not only get these two hostages back, but also punish those responsible. For those who think otherwise, would you argue that the United States shouldn't do such things when their soldiers are on the line?

In an NYT article, Rice urges Israel to hold back and try diplomacy, though whether that's viable with two lives on the line is debatable. Hamas is also arguing that they have two separate political and military wings (a typical setup in such organizations, including the IRA), a sort of "left hand doesn't know what the right is doing" though the Times notes that 10 days ago, a Hamas spokesperson "insisted that Hamas was one organization with a single leadership, making decisions collectively." With Hamas now running the Palestinian government, such coordinated attacks would mean that even the highest levels of the PA are culpable and should be subject to reprisals. (Note how the Times never uses the word terrorist to describe the kidnappers or Hamas as a whole...typical.)

The Jerusalem Post editorializes that Israel must raise the ante for Palestinian aggression and "[t]he price to be exacted must necessarily combine military and non-military actions by Israel, preferably supported and supplemented by sanctions imposed by the international community. Israel should stress to foreign governments that such a combination of Israeli and international action would, by far, be most effective at preventing further Palestinian attacks and eliminating the necessity for further Israeli defensive measures. But if necessary, Israel must be prepared singlehandedly to raise the price of attacking us to prohibitive levels - even if the Quartet is not helpful, and even if it is partially working at cross purposes." Hear hear.

UPDATE
In what might be a blatant attempt to stave off an Israeli response (perhaps an acknowledgement of a serious miscalculation), Hamas and Fatah have agreed on a plan that will implicitly recognize Israel. The recognition would call for a Palestinian state alongside Israel, hardly a strong statement. Maybe it's time for Israel to make a counter-offer: full, explicit recognition and the return of the hostages in exchange for only striking at those directly responsible for the kidnappings?

Morning News Roundup

First off, sorry for the lack of updates over the weekend and yesterday; the weekend is just me being lazy, yesterday is a case of the horrible weather in DC (essentially a monsoon) messing with my life. For 12 hours I was essentially a "displaced person" - thankfully FEMA didn't have to get involved. On to the news...

• Hillary Clinton has hired liberal blogger Peter Daou (of the Daou report for Salon readers) to her '06 Senatorial Committee...meanwhile, Mark Warner has signed MyDD blogger Jerome Armstrong to his PAC. So we have two aspiring Presidential candidates (and two counted among the front-runners) signing up what have become the footsoldiers of the modern leftist movement. Yet no similar action has been taken by Republican candidates among rightwing bloggers, presumably because the conservative blogosphere (besides the lack of rabies) is far less interested in trying to shape politics but rather just exists to provide some sort of rational commentary on it. Why this difference?
• In World Cup news, the two nations to advance from the US's group, Italy and Ghana, have had varying kinds of luck. Italy drew Australia in the first round, and thanks to a screwy ref (doesn't that sound familiar?), Italy advanced. Ghana's taking on Brazil this afternoon and barring some sort of miracle (one with cataclysmic effects in Brazil) will go down in flames.
• The Administration went on the warpath at the highest levels against NYT/LaT's revelations about the SWIFT anti-terror program, a program that tracked the worldwide transfer of funds by terrorists. Bush took the Times to task yesterday during a Q&A, but his is a stance that isn't reflected elsewhere, most noticeably at Justice. Whatever the cause, the Times stories are a violation of national security through the leaking of classified material, and the leakers (as well as the editors who chose to publish) should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. So all I can say is DOJ, grow a pair.
• Senate's expected to vote on the flag-burning amendment today, a vote that is expected to come very close to passing, but will probably be 1-2 votes short; Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (KY) has announced that he'll vote against the amendment on 1st Amendment grounds. A new CNN poll shows 56% of respondents support such a ban, with 40% opposed. And out on the Left Coast, an LA Times editorial argues that such an amendment would make us less free. Show me an American who wants to burn his country's flag and I'll show you an individual who is likely committed to undercutting our freedom in so many other ways. They're right to point out that we don't have a flag-burning epidemic, but the flag is an American symbol which borders on the sacred, the banner under which countless American servicemen and women have shed their blood and given the last full measure for their country; it is in short an emotional and evocative issue which goes beyond mere politics and in many of us addresses something deeper. It's bad politics in much of America to vote against such an amendment, but whether or not it is the right thing to do, I'm not sure.
• The search for a 19 year-old abducted Israeli soldier continues in Gaza, with the Israeli government threatening a major offensive unless Hamas releases the soldier. Such an offensive would be completely justified, and should be a major media blow to Hamas, though I suspect NYT et al will turn it around and criticize Israel for it.
• Only in Texas...a new SurveyUSA poll shows Rick Perry with 35% of the votes, while Kinky Friedman (I), Bell (D), and Strayhorn (I) are all within three points of eachother. I don't expect anyone but Perry to win this one, but these numbers reflect the unique nature of Texas politics.