Intriguing Possibility

A few weeks ago, the folks over at Hot Air brought attention to a new initiative of Mitt Romney's, an effort to become the "ideas factory" of the GOP and presumably pour some money into candidates. Can we say running again? (Which of course shows a lack of confidence in McCain's prospect). Any sort of unstructured group like a 527 is obviously ideal for Romney as he can dump unlimited amounts of his own cash in, though I didn't think he would.

I didn't think he would, at least until Chris Cillizza blogged about a new Republican soft money group calling itself the American Future Fund. It's not a 527 per se, rather it's a 501(c)(4), which according to CC means "it is a nonprofit that can engage in some political activity and is not required to disclose its donors, all of whom can give unlimited sums to the effort. It cannot directly advocate for or against a candidate and its pitch must be issue-centered." The emphasis is my own; issue-centered is exactly what Romney would be going for. Obviously, we don't know who's funding this group, but I immediately found myself wondering whether Mitt did indeed have a role.

That thought was strengthened when CC listed who was involved, a top-notch slate of Republican activists, most of whom were involved with Romney's campaign. It's entirely plausible that the ex-governor's behind this; he attempted something similar before his presidential campaign using his Commonwealth PAC, but that was limited. If he's behind the AFF, he can pick up some serious IOUs: IFF is on the air in Minnesota in support of threatened incumbent Senator Norm Coleman, and could do the same thing elsewhere.What's fascinating about this ad, as CC noted, is that it's issue-based; but it's not just issue-based, it plays up his record of bipartisanship in the Senate, an intriguing twist. Even if the NRSC had the money to go on the air up this early in the Gopher State, it'd either be attacks on Al Franken or pro-Coleman ads that might not play too well in such a purple state. The other value of this ad is that it puts Coleman astride the aisle, allowing for some pretty easy contrasts against Franken, who I think Merriam-Webster would define as left-wing extremist.

All in all, very curious.

Dr. Steve Sauerberg on Blog Talk Radio

Steve Sauerberg, the family physician campaigning against Dick Durbin in Illinois, was Ed Morrisey's guest on Blog Talk Radio today; listen here.

More Minnesota Senate

The Times would like us to know that Franken's not joking around; of course the Gray Lady being the Gray Lady, it's mostly a fluff piece. All the news that fits and what not.

Coleman Slams Franken

Liberal comedian Al Franken has attempted to show that his Senate candidacy in Minnesota isn't a joke. But Republican Norm Coleman's ad, documenting Franken's flip-flops on Iraq, makes it just that.


Oh and I have to wonder whether the Coleman campaign doesn't think Mike Ciresi, Franken's most significant challenger for the nomination, is the weaker of the two candidates in a general election. Neither candidate will be ill-funded - Ciresi is individually wealthy while Franken can tap into the pockets of the Hollywood elite. But whereas Franken may get some pass - he's a famous comedian and thus may be allowed some of the same flexibility that was afforded to Ahnold when he first ran for governor - Ciresi will be running more on the issues. I think Coleman's partially gambling that Iraq will continue to improve, and that Ciresi's opposition will begin to appear rather foolish.

Of course this sort of aggression on Coleman's part is entirely necessary. Minnesota's always been purplish, but is beginning to turn blue; in a presidential year, that only complicates things for him.
(H/t CQ)

Yay Senate Races

Not really. My previous post was a quasi-in-depth/analytical look at Maine's Senate race; the good news there doesn't change the fact that others aren't exactly roses.

- Let's start with Virginia. Chris Cillizza has this as an almost sure-fire flip; he's right. Republican Jim Gilmore, a former Governor (he of the oh-so-brief presidential bid) is the presumptive nominee; he's also expected to be mauled by former Governor Mark Warner. Because, yes, Warner (he of the over-before-it-began presidential bid), is in; he's wildly popular and enormously wealthy. He projects a sufficiently blue-collar/good ol' boy image to be successful in traditionally Republican parts of the state - though the demographic swelling of the People's Republic of Northern Virginia is also to blame.

There's a silver lining, though, that only a blogger will indulge: I've heard rumors (without details, though from a credible source) that Warner's got at least one large skeleton in his closet. It's entirely plausible; if the Republican Party is aware, they weren't willing to use it when Warner ran for governor as the state GOP was in meltdown. That situation sounds eerily reminiscent of Illinois's situation in 2004, when Jack Ryan's self-destructing campaign meant that whatever dirt the party had on Obama (and again, I've heard well-founded rumors that there was dirt - you can't rise that fast in Chicago without something shady) was squirreled away for another day.

- New Mexico's also looking ugly, if only because Democrats have gotten themselves behind one candidate, Tom Udall (a member of that Democratic clan which has been so wildly successful in Mountain West politics). In contrast, Republicans are expecting a bruising primary between Representatives Heather Wilson (a moderate heavily targeted by the DCCC last cycle) and Steve Pearce (the self-anointed conservative candidate).

I hold out little hope for this race, but find it interesting as it illuminates the difference between the chairs of the NRSC and DSCC: Chuck Schumer's cleared the field for his boy, and he's making sure he gets it his way. John Ensign, despite the fact that people are pretty convinced Wilson's the more electable candidate, hasn't found a way to show Pearce the door. Ensign's failure to date may have something to do with the fact that the Republican Party as a whole has been a fundraising failure this cycle, allowing Pearce, no doubt funded by conservative groups, to keep up on the money trail.

This race is doubly painful because Wilson's campaign means she's not running for reelection to the House; in 2006, she won by a mere 875 votes out of some 211,000 cast. It's unlikely a Republican will win this open seat.

- Kentucky. Is it in play? Is it not? Cillizzas' got it at #10. Democrats are convinced McConnell's vulnerable. I'm still not sold on the prospect of a poisonous atmosphere next year, and Kentucky gave Bush nearly 60% of the vote in 2004. It's a state where Hillary Clinton's unlikely to poll well. In 2006, I would have said that Democrats had an argument; next year, I'm less convinced despite being gloomy about the Senate as a whole.