Rasmussen Weekly Roundup

Just got my Rasmussen Report weekly newsletter and I thought I'd pass along, and reanalyze, a gem within.

Our focus today is on New Jersey, where I think it's worthwhile to quote Rasmussen at length before offering my own take (the original piece can be found here).

Republican State Senator Tom Kean Jr., son of the former NJ Governor, again leads Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in New Jersey's race for U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Kean with 44% of the vote while Menendez is at 39%. In our last two polls, Menendez, an appointed incumbent, held a six-point lead.

To reflect the reversal, we are now revising our assessment of the contest from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Menendez thus becomes the only Senate Democrat not favored to win re-election. Three Republican incumbents (DeWine, Burns, Chafee) find themselves in Toss-Up races. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s (R) race is ranked as Leans Democrat.

The new numbers in the Garden State represent a dramatic shift from the last two polls, but the contest has been close all year. Neither candidate has been able to move above the low-40s in terms of voter support.

Kean has a famous name, but New Jersey leans Democrat. The candidates have been swapping charges of corruption and ethical conduct, and it may be that the incumbent is getting the worst of it. Kean has been slamming Menendez hard about rent he collected for several years from a nonprofit agency for which he helped get federal funding.

Menendez now attracts just 70% of Democrats (down from 77% in June, whereas Kean's support from the GOP base is now at 85%. Twelve percent (12%) of Democrats are "not sure" who to support. That's a pretty wobbly base as the race enters the home stretch.

Meanwhile, Kean enjoys a clear advantage not only with Republicans and conservatives but also with unaffiliated voters (43% to 29%) and moderates (52% to 33%).

Kean's "very favorable" number (14%) is twice as high as his "very unfavorable" (7%). The reverse is true for Menendez whose numbers are 16% "very unfavorable" and 9% "very favorable."

Forty-one percent (41%) of all voters see Menendez as politically liberal while 33% say he’s a moderate. Twenty-one percent (21%) don’t know enough to have an opinion. That’s high for an incumbent, but Menendez was appointed by Governor Corzine (D) and has held office for less than a year.

A plurality (42%) see the Republican challenger as politically moderate. Thirty-two percent (32%) say he’s a conservative and 19% are not sure.

So what stands out? First of all that Kean's coming back in a year where everyone says the Democratic tide is insurmountable. I think Rasmussen underestimates the effect of name recognition on Kean's success; it can't hurt when your father is a prominent ex-governor. Second is, as Rasmussen states, Menendez's unsteady base of support. This has also been proclaimed the year of change and a house-cleaning to rid Washington of corrupt members of Congress. On both counts, Menendez is hurting - he's the stereotypical crooked New Jersey pol, and he was never elected to this seat, merely appointed to serve out Corzine's term last year. Thus he also lacks a real record to run on. Given McGavick's recent personal admissions out in Washington, I think New Jersey might now be the GOP's best opportunity to pick up another Senate seat.

The Triumph of Order in Mexico

Though it hasn't been as well-reported as I had thought it would be, Mexico's seven person Electoral Court finally and officially declared Felipe Calderon president-elect, after months of challenges by Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Obrador's protests have not been confined to the halls of power, spilling on the streets chaotically, while driving down his popularity among Mexican citizens who might understandably desire stability more than anything else at this moment. Problem is, Obrador still refuses to admit defeat, and is planning to launch a huge protest in Mexico City on September 16th, where (according to some reports) he might declare himself the head of a parallel government.

In the interest of the Mexican nation, this is the last thing the country needs. Calderon faces enough problems without having this populist thorn in his side, threatening to block critical reforms (i.e. limited privatization of Mexico's state oil company and pension reform). But at the same time, and against the desires of some Mexicans, he should resist calls to disperse AMLO's protests violently - he holds the barest of majorities right now, and not everyone views him as legitimate; violence will merely further weaken his credibility and legitimacy.

The court's ruling, then, is a great step forward for Mexico's democracy, but Calderon & Co. aren't out of the woods yet. For even the hope of serious reform, AMLO and his fellow Chavistas must accept the new administration, and members of Congress must come together to lend support to a series of reforms that, while necessary, will surely prove to be unpopular to entrenched interests.

Mixed News from the Ocean State

With the Rhode Island primaries only six days away, it's no secret that the fate of Lincoln Chafee's Senate seat hangs in the balance. Should Chafee win, the GOP has a shot at holding this seat in the general; should challenger Stephen Laffey win, Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse wins in a landslide. It's sort of like a Lamont-Lieberman thing, but Laffey's running more as the anti-incumbent than the true conservative. What is rather like Lamont-Lieberman, however, is the confusion generated by the poll numbers. These two are best summed up by a post on WSJ's Washington Wire blog: two polls, conducted over roughly the same period, and with roughly the same sample size of likely Republican voters. One, from Rhode Island College (and possibly associated with the Laffey campaign, though I'm not certain on this point), shows the challenger up 51%-34%. The other, from Publican Opinion Surveys (but conducted on behalf of the NRSC), shows Chafee up 53%-39%. While at first glance the two effectively negate eachother, the POS numbers look significantly better when you realize that "Of the 53% of respondents who could actually name the primary election date, 58% support Mr. Chafee compared to 37% who back Mr. Laffey" (that from Washington Wire). Not only is that a good thing in and of itself for the Chafee campaign, I have to assume he'll also have the better GOTV operation. So while I'm not in any way calling this one right now, I feel like Chafee's not hurting as much as some might have you think, and I also think that RIC poll has got it wrong.

Santorum-Casey Debate

Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum debated his opponent, State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. Casey comes across as a smug piece of sh*t...which of course he is, and I think Santorum comes out the winner - but I'm biased. Even Democrats hate this schmuck - so why did the DSCC back him? Still not sure, he's the anti-Lamont, and it's not even clear he's electable. Full debate can be streamed (only on Internet Explorer unfortunately) from the Meet the Press website.

Noteworthy that Cilizza's latest Senate rankings still had Santorum in the most vulnerable spot, but with the concession that "we seriously weighed moving Pennsylvania down to the second position" in their list. But while he still doesn't think Santorum's got a chance, I disagree. Based on Casey's previous implosions, the fact that (and he denies this in the interview, lying through his teeth in the process) bad blood exists between him and Rendell, Santorum's superior debate performance (and I expect it to continue in the future), and Santorum's perpetual underdog status (he never leads in a poll in any race thus making them more or less meaningless except for the magnitude of his opponent's lead), I still think Rick can pull it out, though it'll probably be something like 51%-49% and the sore losers on the Left will scream voter fraud and brand him as illegitimate for the next six years.

Welcome Back!

My own personal August recess is over, and though my posting will not be as prolific as it might have been earlier in the year, it will be more focused on the elections. Labor Day is the traditional beginning of campaign season, so here we go.

WaPo has a great analysis of the problems the GOP faces this fall, but one thing is clear in their conversations with operatives on both sides: no one's sure what's goin' down. Personally speaking, I expect the GOP to lose seats in both Houses, but I don't expect a '94 style tide.

Also noteworthy: the NRCC has backed the more electable candidate in the AZ-08, increasing their chances of holding that seat.