Good News from Montana

Reported in Hotline On Call:
Lake Research, 6/20-6/26, 1200 likely voters, +/- 2.8%
Conrad Burns (R): 43%
Jon Tester (D): 42%


Burns Fav/Unfav: 46%/50%
Tester: 48%/18%

Although I like these numbers (statistical dead heat is better than the Rasmusen numbers here), several avenues of criticism are immediately apparent, first and foremost the 6-day span over which the poll was conducted. Burns' fav/unfav could also be better, but they look worse than they really are compared to Tester's, which are probably skewed by his relatively low profile. Also, Burns has a very significant fundraising advantage ($2.7 million COH to less than $200k COH) which might make a difference in the long run. Eat that Kos and your people-power.

UPDATE
I looked at the Rasmussen numbers and since I tend to trust them more, I'm in a little bit of a funk about this. Tried to post a graph of the numbers, but it didn't work. Suffice to say from a pre-primary starting point with Burns up 3 47%-44%, he's lost 4% while Tester's gained 6% so as to be up 50%-43% in the latest Rasmussen numbers. Doesn't mean I won't tout the Lake Research numbers though...