Two French Evenments Of Note

I'll start with the more straightforward, satisfying one: former president Jacques Chirac will be investigated over allegations of corruption during his time as mayor of Paris (same period: Saddam Hussein's ami). Corruption (as well as latent antisemitism and/or pro-Arab sentiments) were among the primary reasons the French so opposed our invasion of Iraq.

In other news, France has thrown up additional obstacles to Turkey's quest to join the European Union. Sarkozy has been unflinchingly and unapologetically opposed to Turkish entry. I'm torn on this issue; I've debated it ad nauseum with a Turkish friend of mine who is fervently nationalist and staunchly secular, as well as pro-EU. On the one hand, I understand why Turkey so desperately wants to join the club - partially for its perceived economic benefits (especially the open markets) and partially as a fulfillment of its European-looking Kemalist legacy. I also feel that as Turkey's stability is repeatedly questioned (has been the case for decades, just today it's Islamism and not the secular military), tying it closer to Europe could be beneficial. But there are also pressing questions. On the one hand, is Turkey really eligible to join the EU? There are of course questions of culture and religion (which, given demographic trends in Europe, are becoming increasingly superfluous) but also questions about whether Turkey can actually make the prerequisite reforms. There is also an argument to be made that Turkey shouldn't bother joining the EU, that the union's hyper-regulatory nature is antithetical to Turkey's interests.

But let's be honest: if worst-case scenarios for both Europe and Turkey are accurate - that is to say that if Europe is fated to become Islamic and Turkey's secularism is doomed, then isn't Turkey's formal entry to the EU sort of a moot point? They'll all be in the ummah together.

More Thoughts on France

A few pieces came to my attention today that I thought were worth highlighting in the wake of yesterday's French elections and the challenges that Sarkozy's government will face in coming months. First off, Socialist Segolene Royal, maneuvering to avoid total disaster at the polls, has proposed an alliance with Francois Bayrou's centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem). Many seem doubtful whether such a move will stave off electoral catastrophe or merely stanch the bleeding.

Despite Royal's outreach, I think that we may be seeing the death throes of France's Socialist Party (PS). While the Left in other European countries has moved away from pure socialism towards social democracy, the PS has remained firmly wedded to full-fledged socialism. Bayrou's relatively centrist MoDem was partially offering an alternative to the old left/right divide but he failed to make it into the second round. Should the PS suffer a crushing blow in the upcoming election, and should Sarkozy succeed in implementing his reforms, the party may be too devastated to offer any serious opposition, ceding its role as a major party to MoDem or another. This isn't to say it would disappear altogether but rather be reduced to the ranks of the minor parties of the left, which includes not only your garden-variety communists and greens but also parties devoted to "workers' struggle" party and at least one Trotskyist party (not kidding).

The second item of note was that French Sikhs have gone to the European Court of Human Rights, seeking permission to wear their turbans in school as well as in official identification photos. As to the former complaint this is a consequence (unintended or not) of the controversial law passed a few years ago banning students from wearing overt religious identifiers (aimed primarily at Muslim girls' headscarves) in schools. The law is rooted primarily in the traditional French zealousness for a certain national unity without regard for race or religious creed, a notion which has been severely abused in recent years.

The law came under fire from multiple directions when it was passed. Some accused it of being an assault on Islam (apparently Europe too has its grievance theater types). One of the more interesting criticism I remember at the time was the Economist's libertarian reaction. Of course young Muslim girls donning the head scarf may not actually be their choice?

France Truly Ready for Reform?

Sure they elected conservative, reform-minded, America-loving, tough-on-crime Nicolas Sarkozy president, but it was unclear how serious the French commitment to change was. That commitment was made apparent today with the nation's parliamentary elections. According to the AP, Sarko's UMP (originally, "(Union pour la majorité présidentielle" now "Union pour un Mouvement Populaire") took 46% of the vote; in contrast the Socialists, party of presidential runner-up Segolene Royal, took roughly 36%. Of course, given the absurd complexities of the French electoral system, this is only the first round of parliamentary balloting. But it bodes well for the composition of the new Assemblée nationale, potentially with the UMP having an absolute majority. Obviously that'll help Sarko's reform program.

Some right-minded analysis is especially interesting (I plead ignorance: I was unaware that Pajamas Media had a correspondent in France); particularly that the "depressed" (61%!) turnout may signal bitter Socialists stayed home.

So what's Sarko going to do with this majority? Ideally, he'll implement major economic reforms - throw out the infamous 35-hour work-week, the generous welfare benefits, the difficulties in terminating employees - and address the violence in the banlieus, perpetrated primarily by disaffected Muslim youth (the surge of car-burnings that breached the US media's veil of silence was hardly exceptional). Whether or not he'll succeed remains to be seen, but this is definitely a move in the right direction.

Sarko Wins

France's Nicholas Sarkozy has resoundingly won today's French presidential election, defeating Socialist candidate Segolene Royal. Sarko's victory is on so many levels a good sign; it suggests the French are ready to swallow the tough tonic of economic reform. It also suggests that they're willing to deal with the thugs who dominate the suburbs. Closer to home, President Sarko will bring France closer to the US, as he's regularly decried anti-Americanism.