Another Summer of Violence in Lebanon?

MEMRI suggests there's reason to worry that Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran (all essentially the same entity) are going to raise some more hell in Lebanon this summer. Obviously they haven't simply come out and said as much, but there are fragmentary reports that when put together paint a rather sinister picture. If I were a government minister in Tel Aviv, I might find this a rather perverse opportunity for action; this is especially true if one acknowledges a closing window of opportunity before Iran develops nuclear weapons. IDF forces could topple the Little Ass(ad) regime in Damascus without too much trouble, and any overt Iranian reaction may be limited by the presence of US warships off the coast. Of course if it so much as lifts a finger, Israel will be castigated in the media and the UN.

Israel willing to trade security for..."peace"

By which I mean the Golan Heights to Syria for a Syrian promise of peace. Whatever exactly that means. And really, as this article makes clear, it's largely Olmert considering the deal, with widespread dissent by other parties. Olmert isn't so naive as to seek unconditional peace - Syria must sever its ties with Iran and Hezbollah - but they are conditions that the Syrians have little chance of actually living up to. Sadly we've apparently midwifed this deal, as Bush gave Olmert the go-ahead for negotiations last month. While I think any strategy to isolate Iran by splitting Syria from it is an interesting idea, doing so at the cost of Israeli security is dangerous and shortsighted. Most interesting quote:

Meanwhile, a Ma'ariv-TNS poll showed that only 10% of Israelis supported a full withdrawal from the Golan, 40% were in favor of a partial withdrawal and 44% were opposed to any withdrawal. The poll also showed that despite recent peace overtures from Damascus, 74% of Israelis did not trust Assad.

Obviously this deal won't be easily closed.