Pennsylvania House Races

Townhall's Salena Zito has a good roundup of this cycle's top House races in Pennsylvania. Sure it might seem absurd to focus on only one state, but there are eight potentially "in play" seats in the Keystone State.

Four of these (4th, 7th, 8th, and 10th) were Republican until 2006 when they went blue. I blogged about the 4th the other day, where Democrat Jason Altmire might be in serious trouble if former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann decides to get in. Zito suggests that Altmire will only have to worry if Swann runs a "top-notch" campaign, an assessment I agree with; his gubernatorial bid last cycle was marred by gaffs and missteps, making a tough race nigh-on impossible. She also argues (I agree) that Iraq veteran Pat Murphy in PA-8 is basically invulnerable, with Joe Sestak in the 7th only slightly less so. That makes, in her eyes, Chris Carney in the PA-10 the most vulnerable.

Of course how vulnerable is up for discussion. The 10th district went for Bush by comfortable margins in 2000 and 2004 (56-40 and 60-40 respectively) and is more rural than the suburban parts of the state trending purple (i.e. Philly suburbs). Don Sherwood, who Carney defeated, was also a less than stellar candidate, seeing as he had to admit an extramarital affair while denying that he'd assaulted his mistress. A lot will depend on who's on top of the ticket; I think Hillary hurts Carney while Giuliani or Thompson helps his eventual challenger.

Zito also looks at four Republican-held seats she thinks could be in play: Phil English (PA-03, Pittsburgh-area), Jim Gerlach (PA-06, southeastern part of the state), Charlie Dent (PA-15, Allentown area), and Tim Murphy (PA-18, southern Pittsburgh). Demographics would suggest that Dent or Gerlachhave the greatest challenge; Gerlach was heavily targeted by the DCCC in 06 but he survived 51-49, but he's battle-tested and has a savvy staff (including consultant Mark Campbell, also Rudy's national Political Director). Dent for his part has a purple district but is no ideologue and probably can't get tarred as out of touch. Murphy's got some ethical clouds on the horizon but fits his district, while English has had it easy the last couple of cycles and will need to get in fighting trim (simple sloth probably cost the GOP the 7th district last year). For what it's worth, a friend from English's district discounts the possibility of it going blue anytime soon.

While I generally agree with her logic, I think the presidential nominees will be a huge factor in any of these races. Fred or Rudy will likely attract moderates and energize the base, making things easier for all four Republican incumbents (especially Dent and Murphy), and turn the heat up on Carney and Altmire; that dynamic would also likely force the DCCC to play defense in some of its newly-conquered territories, again reducing the pressure on the Republicans. I also feel like in a lot of these blue-collar districts (often purple), Hillary Clinton won't go over well.

Last year was a massacre for the Pennsylvania GOP but it has to be seen as a perfect storm rather than a sign of things to come. Lynn Swann's gubernatorial bid was clumsy, Rick Santorum was a mite too conservative for the state, and the war was bad for everyone. Republicans shouldn't rest easy because of that, however - next year is their best chance to reverse some of these losses before the Democratic freshmen entrench themselves.