Saturday, July 07, 2007

Another Summer of Violence in Lebanon?

MEMRI suggests there's reason to worry that Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran (all essentially the same entity) are going to raise some more hell in Lebanon this summer. Obviously they haven't simply come out and said as much, but there are fragmentary reports that when put together paint a rather sinister picture. If I were a government minister in Tel Aviv, I might find this a rather perverse opportunity for action; this is especially true if one acknowledges a closing window of opportunity before Iran develops nuclear weapons. IDF forces could topple the Little Ass(ad) regime in Damascus without too much trouble, and any overt Iranian reaction may be limited by the presence of US warships off the coast. Of course if it so much as lifts a finger, Israel will be castigated in the media and the UN.

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