Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Fred and Rudy

In what's got to be the most over-reported news of the day, not-yet-declared candidate Fred Thompson is quickly catching up with (or even surpassing) Rudy Giuliani in some recent polls. It's not entirely surprising that the Fred Express is doing so well: he's well-liked by members of the conservative establishment (Mary Cheney, famously the target of John Edwards' assualt during the 2004 VP debate, just signed on to his campaign) and following their cues, the masses seem to have taken to him as well.

On to the news: a new LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Giuliani leading Fred 27%-21% (and Giuliani beating HRC by 10%). The poll doesn't test any Democrats against Fred, however, thus failing to illuminate the crucial "electability" dynamic.

However, a new Rasmussen poll found the two tied at 24% apiece, whereas Rudy was leading 23%-17% just a week ago. I don't think Rudy's peaked too soon, I just think the electorate (especially the conservatives who as of yet have not found anyone sufficiently conservative for their tastes yet electable) is excited by the buzz and his potential. Whether or not he can live up to the hype in a major way remains to be seen. He's got the star power - and although it's just Law & Order, at least it's not Bedtime for Bonzo! - and he's been making the right noises on the issues, but I'm still skeptical if this is any more than a temporary phenomenon.

The other thing that the Times/Bloomberg poll mentions is that Romney, who has been doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire (though they don't cite their own numbers to that extent) gets decimated by Clinton or Obama in the general. I have to believe it's his Mormonism: to "mainstream" Christians, it's a little too cultish and to secularists (to whom all of Christianity is just a little cultish), it's just down right freaky.

Anyone else notice the "values" buzz lately? I've been collecting some articles on it and pondering - maybe something tomorrow?

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