The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Arizona shows that Pedersen has failed to make a real dent in that state, probably because of his failure to take a strong stand on immigration. The report also indicates that McCain's stance on immigration, the sort of posture favored by Pedersen, is seen as less popular; I have a growing feeling that McCain's immigration bill will be lethal to his presidential aspirations in 2008. Though I have been wrong before.
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I wouldn't count out McCain soley on the basis of a relatively weak immigration policy. The policy that he's been advocating is popular with a number of groups on both sides of the aisle in Arizona, and one of the criteria for the nom will deifnitely be electability. Plus any election including McCain in Arizona is call for a landslide.
California and Texas may be harder sells, but I really believe that the national election will be decided based on a far broader range of issues than just immigration, and on many other issues such as campaign finance, the war, etc, McCain has a great deal of support.
God-willing, Congress will put together some sort of immigration reform before the '08 election, and then the issue won't be nearly as much of a focal point. I realize I shouldn't hold my breath on that though.
Either way, '08 will obviously be far greater than any one single issue, and it's really too soon to predict that immigration will be lethal to McCain's campaign. After the midterms, then things will start to sort out as everything will begin to point down to the '08 showdown.
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