Tennessee Primary Predictions

So today (yes Thursday) the fine people of Tennesse will go to the polls. The only primary I'm really concerned about is the Republican Senate primary as the GOP seeks its candidate for the retiring Senator Frist's seat. If you haven't been paying attention it's a three way contest between former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (whose daughter infamously appeared on wonkette a while back), Van Hilleary (honestly don't know what this guy does) and Ed Bryant, a former Congressman. Hilleary and Bryant are generally viewed as the conservatives in the field, a fact that is certainly to Corker's benefit. Most polls I've seen have Corker winning, presumably because the other two are splitting the conservative bloc between them. However, the campaign has apparently turned nasty of late, which may place added emphasis on get out the vote operations. A poll released about ten days ago showed Corker up by 11% but with a 7% MOE, findings that are apparently consistent with Corker's internals but hotly disputed by the others' campaigns.

On the other side of the aisle, the Dems have succesfully cleared the way for their chosen candidate, Representative Harold Ford. Ford, whose family are essentially the Kennedys of Memphis, is educated, articulate, young, and black. In the South, this last factor may prove decisive. Ford is running as a moderate, though the GOP loudly disputes that assertion; regardless, he seems pretty popular with average Tennesseans (though this may be in part a reaction to the nastiness among GOPers).

As crazy as it seems, I can't bring myself to write off a black Democrat in Tennessee. Although all three Republicans lead Ford according to a Rasmussen report, Corker boasts the largest lead 49%-37%. Although a Ford poll conducted by Zogby disputes that, showing Ford up, the margin is so slim, and the poll's lack of sample data, that I'm disregarding it. But it still comes down to this: a Corker win tommorow and this seat is pretty much sewn up for the GOP; a surprise by Hilleary and and Bryant, and ladies and gentlemen, we have a race.

Cilizza's preview can be found here.

When I'm not dog-tired, I'll find some primary poll data.