Time's Person of the Year - Drum Roll, Please...

Time has gotten around to announcing their "Person of the Year," an award that has lost much of its luster since last year's "You" cop-out. That being said, the smart money before the announcement was on Al Gore, or if they were honest, David Petraeus. But Time was tricky, and instead went with, wait for it, Vlad Putin. Da. I think their primary reason for the pick was the cutesy title - A Tsar Is Born. I almost would have been happy with the Goreacle. CQ's coverage is worthwhile, especially the part about how the voting shook out - Vlad, Goreacle, JK ROWLING, Hu Jintao, and then Petraeus. Back to that bit about honesty; JK Rowling? Did Britney Spears poll sixth? Two years, two stupid awards - adieu, credibility.

South Africa Takes A Big Step Backwards

South Africa is like Japan (until recently, at least) or Russia in that it's effectively a one-party state: become top dog in the ANC (African National Congress) and you're more or less assured the presidency. The ANC's political domination is of course in large part due to its role in the downfall of apartheid, but recent developments should make any sane observer wonder how much longer that should qualify them to keep power.

The party's national conference recently concluded; media reports make it out to be one part political, one part theatrical - think the Republican National Convention with dancing and chanting - and on the political side of things, Jacob Zuma became the heir apparent. His victory over incumbent president Thabo Mbeki was both surprising and unsurprising, but Zuma's triumph is enormously depressing.

This is the man who's tainted by corruption charges. More infamously, this is the polygamist who once raped a woman, claiming that her knee-length skirt was an invitation to do so, and despite the fact that she was known to be HIV positive; he later nonchalantly stated that he'd minimized risk of infection, as he'd taken a shower. Ladies and gentlemen, the next president of South Africa (and the former head of the National AIDS Council).

Which isn't to say Mbeki's an angel. HIV/AIDS is unequivocally the most important issue facing South Africa as well as the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa; Mbeki has publicly questioned the scientifically-proven link between the two. Instead, he claims it's a "disease of poverty," whatever exactly that means besides being a fine justification for a welfare state; his intransigence might also be rooted in his opposition to imperialism, despite the fact that Europeans left long before the AIDS epidemic exploded.

So why did the ANC do themselves and their country this disservice? The Tribune's correspondent (previous link) suggests that it's partially personal, partially political, with a dash of ethnicity to boot - Mbeki was a technocrat where Zuma is a populist, Zuma's populism has won him support of the party's left wing which Mbeki has alienated, Mbeki (like Mandela before him) is Xhosa, Zuma is Zulu (thus the polygamy). Some also think that perhaps the ANC will finally split, with Zuma forming a leftist party and Mbeki a center-left party. Coverage from the Times (New York) and Times ("Times") are also worth reading, though there is little novelty.

Foreign Affairs

If you can stomach Huckabee's faux pas, a host of other candidates have written for the international intelligentsia in Foreign Affairs, including McCain, Hillary, Richardson, Obama, Giuliani, Edwards and Romney. Again, consider the audience (which further begs the question whether Huckabee's error won't play well in the Heartland, an uncomfortable thought for me).

Dear Mike: I Hate You

Mike Huckabee was finally invited to play with the big boys (and girl), and authored a an article for the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. I didn't bother reading it because, to be brutally honest, reading Huckabee's "policy" arguments is torture to me; See-Dubya, however, has a higher pain tolerance than I, and glommed on to this gem: "Sun-tzu's ancient wisdom is relevant today: 'Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.'" Problem is, as he points out, that wasn't the wise Sun-Tzu - it was Michael Corleone. Will he next attribute "a deal he couldn't refuse" to Attila, fitting as it may be. Did Cicero - or was it Cato? - lecture on the importance of being able for a bunch of men?

Sadly, I can't add an attribution to this point, but I recently read that Huckabee doesn't actually use speech-writers. Which begs the question whether another penned that ill-checked travesty for him, or whether (more ominously) he wrote it himself.

It's only a fact-check error, I admit, but it alludes to bigger issues: this is Foreign Affairs, not the Little Rock Arkansas Gazette. Is this campaign ready for prime time?
(h/t Powerline)

Thompson Grasping at Straws - And Getting A Big (?) Endorsement

Over the summer, I was briefly taken by a Fred Thompson candidacy - I liked his columns on Townhall, felt that he had an air of gravitas that was missing, and wondered whether he might be able to unite the Republican Party. I never entirely bought into the idea that he was Ronald Reagan reincarnate, but apparently his campaign still thinks he is. This time, their argument is that Thompson = Reagan because both can raise their hands. Or something. Anyways, that's what they have to say in a recent email:

Dear Friend of Fred, In the 1980 campaign, I worked for Ronald Reagan. I was proud to be part of his team. Now, I am just as proud to be part of Fred Thompson's team. That's why I am writing to seek your help today. In 1980, the defining moment for President Reagan was in a New Hampshire debate when he refused to kowtow to a belligerent moderator. Fred had a defining moment on Wednesday in the Iowa debate, when he refused the liberal moderator's demand to raise his hand to say yes or no to a complex question. The similarities were incredible. We have reached a critical juncture in the campaign--and we need you to step up once again. On Monday, Fred kicks off "The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down!" Bus Tour in Iowa. The tour will take Fred to 50 cities and towns across Iowa in the most aggressive retail campaigning of the whole campaign. Just in time for the Iowa caucuses on January 3! In fact, Fred will be there virtually the entire time except Christmas until the vote. We call it "The Clear Conservative Choice" tour because Fred is the only clear, consistent conservative in the race. He was conservative in the past, he is today and he will be so in the future. You can count on him. We just added the "Hands Down" to commemorate his dominating performance in the Wednesday debate. I believe this tour can make the difference in the Iowa caucuses. It will bring Fred in contact with thousands of caucus goers--it will build off the momentum of Fred's performance. Fred is really energized...and he's already come out swinging. But that's where you come in. We need "air cover" in the form of media for our tour and our first rate ground game. As you can imagine, Fred is the best on TV and his bold proposals have been highly praised by conservative publications and commentators. But we need additional funding for our final media push. Can you help? Could you contribute $25, 50, $100 or more today? Your contribution will help us get a powerful new ad on the air just as the caucuses conclude. We want 2400 donors in 24 hours to show the liberal media that we are tired of of their games. No More Hand Shows! Then send an e-card to all your friends and family letting them know you have had enough of the liberal media's games. Your help is crucial--can you respond immediately? Go here to contribute. I know things are tight this time of year, just before Christmas...BUT NOW IS WHEN WE NEED YOU THE MOST! Please make your contribution today. Help Fred keep his bandwagon rolling--and the momentum increasing! Just think about Fred's defining moment--and make your contribution now. The time is right--the time is NOW. Thanks so much for your help. Sincerely, William B. Lacy, Campaign Manager P.S. We're only 20 days away from the Iowa Caucuses. Your gift of $25, $50, $100, $500, $1000, or $2300 is crucial to Fred's success. Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

But is all lost for Thompson? Perhaps not - as Chris Cillizza reports, he's picked up the endorsement of Representative Steve King, one of the most conservative members of the House. Two things - first off, Cillizza's hyperlink refers to a King endorsement of Romney...? Second of all, does this dampen the buzz about Huckabee being the only conservative in the field? I hardly think it suggests that the Huckabuzz is overstated, unless King things Thompson's the more electable candidate. Basically, I think the Representative just squandered his influence. Oops.

At Last!

Finals are over, therefore I blog.

Pope 1, Gore 0

His Holiness has once again "spoken truth to power." Usually this means idiots mouthing off to authority, but in an ironic inversion we have an authority showing the idiots up. He suggested, wise words of caution, that climate change science not be pressured by ideology. Hear that, Al? And now back to finals...

More Minnesota Senate

The Times would like us to know that Franken's not joking around; of course the Gray Lady being the Gray Lady, it's mostly a fluff piece. All the news that fits and what not.

Coleman Slams Franken

Liberal comedian Al Franken has attempted to show that his Senate candidacy in Minnesota isn't a joke. But Republican Norm Coleman's ad, documenting Franken's flip-flops on Iraq, makes it just that.


Oh and I have to wonder whether the Coleman campaign doesn't think Mike Ciresi, Franken's most significant challenger for the nomination, is the weaker of the two candidates in a general election. Neither candidate will be ill-funded - Ciresi is individually wealthy while Franken can tap into the pockets of the Hollywood elite. But whereas Franken may get some pass - he's a famous comedian and thus may be allowed some of the same flexibility that was afforded to Ahnold when he first ran for governor - Ciresi will be running more on the issues. I think Coleman's partially gambling that Iraq will continue to improve, and that Ciresi's opposition will begin to appear rather foolish.

Of course this sort of aggression on Coleman's part is entirely necessary. Minnesota's always been purplish, but is beginning to turn blue; in a presidential year, that only complicates things for him.
(H/t CQ)

Romney's Gamble

For months now, the Chatterati have been discussing whether or not Mitt Romney would have the gumption to give "the speech" - an address on his Mormon faith akin to JFK's famous airing of his "Catholic problem." Well, he's finally decided to roll the dice as CBS and the Politico report.

Both articles suggest - and my thoughts were similar before I read their take - that Romney's attempting to win back social conservatives who have recently been lured away by Mike Huckabee, and that Romney has also been goaded by Huckabee's recent performance in the polls.

That being said, I don't know if it's a wise gamble. Social conservatives attracted to Huckabee by his strong social stances (he's a Baptist minister after all) are, I think, unlikely to return to Romney. Huckabee's also likely helped among social conservatives who are feeling economically pinched - I've long believed his Bible-thumping populism to be a potent formula If Romney bombs, he's in real danger; if it's a home run, it still may have little effect.

It Just Keeps Getting Crazier

The headline could refer to college football, where last night's upset of #1 Mizzou and #2 West Virginia mean that the national title game is a wide open affair (Ohio State and...well make your case here). It's also a clarion call for a playoff.

But what I'm really referring to today is the Republican race, where in the last few days not only has Mike Huckabee taken his first lead in a poll (actually two), up 29-24 over Mitt Romney in a D-M Register poll, and up 28-25 in a Rasmussen poll conducted at almost the same time. So Iowa's up for grabs.

There's also Rudy's little scandal this week - which I don't think is a scandal at all, but I'll talk more about that in the future.

Of course the big news this morning - and it had been rumbling for hours before hand - is that the Manchester Union-Leader has endorsed John McCain. The Arizona Senator is all over the map in polls - sometimes a distant third, sometimes tied with Giuliani for second, but never really challenging Romney's lead. However, McCain won here in 2000 and given that this is his do-or-die state, he'll likely be focusing most of his efforts there in the coming weeks. It just keeps getting crazier.

Iowa Fireworks

Oh goody - the Des Moines Register has decided that having one crazy candidate (Ron Paul) on stage during presidential debates isn't enough. No, they need two - so they've gone ahead and invited repeat presidential candidate (and desperate Illinois Senate contender) Alan Keyes. Ed Morrissey's take on the story is worth reading.

However there seems to be a certain symmetry to this - Ron Paul represents the libertarian/socially moderate crazy wing of the party; Alan Keyes represents the religious zealotry/socially conservative crazy wing of the party.

Giuliani hasn't yet committed to this debate - wouldn't it be great if the other credible candidates backed out and left the stage to these two clowns? That isn't to call Tancredo and Hunter credible, just slightly more so than Crazy Uncle Ron and Keyes.

Huckabee Moves Into Two Spot

I've blogged a lot on Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who's starting to shake things up in Iowa.

Of course he was beginning to shake things up before the latest ABC/WaPo poll, released today: Huckabee polled at 24% - only 4 points behind Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the long-time leader in Iowa. The Post's piece rightly points out that much of Huckabee's boost came from Christian conservatives (which may factor into Giuliani's slump in their poll), but it'll be interesting to see if he gets a financial boost as well. ABC's story is long (4 pages) but worth at least skimming.

Yay Senate Races

Not really. My previous post was a quasi-in-depth/analytical look at Maine's Senate race; the good news there doesn't change the fact that others aren't exactly roses.

- Let's start with Virginia. Chris Cillizza has this as an almost sure-fire flip; he's right. Republican Jim Gilmore, a former Governor (he of the oh-so-brief presidential bid) is the presumptive nominee; he's also expected to be mauled by former Governor Mark Warner. Because, yes, Warner (he of the over-before-it-began presidential bid), is in; he's wildly popular and enormously wealthy. He projects a sufficiently blue-collar/good ol' boy image to be successful in traditionally Republican parts of the state - though the demographic swelling of the People's Republic of Northern Virginia is also to blame.

There's a silver lining, though, that only a blogger will indulge: I've heard rumors (without details, though from a credible source) that Warner's got at least one large skeleton in his closet. It's entirely plausible; if the Republican Party is aware, they weren't willing to use it when Warner ran for governor as the state GOP was in meltdown. That situation sounds eerily reminiscent of Illinois's situation in 2004, when Jack Ryan's self-destructing campaign meant that whatever dirt the party had on Obama (and again, I've heard well-founded rumors that there was dirt - you can't rise that fast in Chicago without something shady) was squirreled away for another day.

- New Mexico's also looking ugly, if only because Democrats have gotten themselves behind one candidate, Tom Udall (a member of that Democratic clan which has been so wildly successful in Mountain West politics). In contrast, Republicans are expecting a bruising primary between Representatives Heather Wilson (a moderate heavily targeted by the DCCC last cycle) and Steve Pearce (the self-anointed conservative candidate).

I hold out little hope for this race, but find it interesting as it illuminates the difference between the chairs of the NRSC and DSCC: Chuck Schumer's cleared the field for his boy, and he's making sure he gets it his way. John Ensign, despite the fact that people are pretty convinced Wilson's the more electable candidate, hasn't found a way to show Pearce the door. Ensign's failure to date may have something to do with the fact that the Republican Party as a whole has been a fundraising failure this cycle, allowing Pearce, no doubt funded by conservative groups, to keep up on the money trail.

This race is doubly painful because Wilson's campaign means she's not running for reelection to the House; in 2006, she won by a mere 875 votes out of some 211,000 cast. It's unlikely a Republican will win this open seat.

- Kentucky. Is it in play? Is it not? Cillizzas' got it at #10. Democrats are convinced McConnell's vulnerable. I'm still not sold on the prospect of a poisonous atmosphere next year, and Kentucky gave Bush nearly 60% of the vote in 2004. It's a state where Hillary Clinton's unlikely to poll well. In 2006, I would have said that Democrats had an argument; next year, I'm less convinced despite being gloomy about the Senate as a whole.

Good News in Maine?

Maine's a funny state: almost no one lives there (errant Canadians and moose aside). It's also a politically wacky state: Gore and Kerry won it, it has a Democratic governor and two Democratic Representatives, and two Republican Senators. Now Republican here is a loose usage of the term, less so than with Linc Chafee in Rhode Island, but Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe are hardly conservative firebrands.

Democrats and the Left have been busy attempting to paint Senator Susan Collins, up for reelection next year, as an out of touch conservative as well as a warmonger. Democrats already have as good a candidate as they're going to get in Congressman Tom Allen, who represents Maine's 1st District - aka the inhabited one. The race has consistently been listed in the lower half of the top 10 most competitive races by Chris Cillizza (latest update is here, worth reading in full).

Yet things don't seem to be going the Democrats' way. Two polls show Snowe sitting pretty; one has her up 54-34, though it's worth noting that 12% of respondents (408 likely voters over an 18 day period) are presently undecided. The other (and I link to DailyKos because they commissioned it, though with a notably independent pollster) has 55% saying they'd reelect Collins and shows the incumbent with a 23 point lead over Allen.

Republicans meanwhile are trumpeting this race; this email was sent out by the NRSC yesterday:

Dear Republican Supporter,

The race in Maine is shaping up to be nothing like the Democrats imagined. They have mistakenly named Susan Collins as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators running for re-election in 2008. But their predictions are turning out to be off the mark.

In a new poll out last week, Sen. Collins has a stunning 20-point lead. The poll shows Collins leading her opponent, Tom Allen, 54 percent -- 34 percent with only 12 percent of Maine voters undecided -- a great sign this early in the race. These results nearly mirror another poll out earlier this month that shows Sen. Collins leading the race with an even stronger 23 point lead.

Partisan Democrat U.S. Rep. Tom Allen cannot seem to gain the traction he is looking for to compete against Senator Collins, no matter how hard he tries. Though there is one thing that makes him stand out in the race: He has the grand distinction of being the Democrat that liberal extremist group MoveOn.org has donated the most money -- an astounding $250,000 so far this year. This distinction will show voters where his true loyalties lie.

Sen. Collins has an accomplished record of working hard for Mainers and its clear that the people of Maine respect that drive and dedication. Senator Collins has never missed a vote in the Senate and in contrast to that stellar record, her opponent, Rep. Tom Allen, has never had sponsored legislation enacted into law. It's this record that Tom Allen will be taking to Maine voters in his run against Sen. Susan Collins.

Not only is Tom Allen a MoveOn.org puppet, he's also an ineffective legislator.

Help us keep liberal, MoveOn.org-supported Democrat Tom Allen out of the U.S. Senate and support our efforts to ensure a Republican majority.

We're gaining the momentum we need to win. But we can't do it alone. Donate today, and together we will capture the U.S. Senate.

Thank you for your continued support.

Scott Bensing, Executive Director
National Republican Senatorial Committee

This is all well and good, but let's be clear: one race that doesn't look like a massacre in the making doesn't make up for Republican woes elsewhere. But I'll look at those separately.

When Chuck's Awed

So Michael Jordan's getting divorced; according to the Trib, his wife's getting a cool $15o million out of this. Your surprise, dear reader, is expected; what's not is that of Charles Barkley:

"You have to look at it two ways," Barkley, now an analyst for TNT, said. " 'Wow, that's a lot of money. Wow, that's a lot of money.' Then the second way, 'Damn, Michael's got a lot of money.' … Personally I would have to have somebody else write the check. You've got to be so [ticked] to write that check."

As he said, wow. And just because we're talking about His Airness, the greatest player ever to pull on a uniform - sorry Kobe, sorry 'Bron you guys aren't there yet - here's a great retrospective.

God was he good.

Other Overlooked Countries

While we're at it, Kosovo's prime minister, Agim Ceku (a name I can't spell from memory) writes on his country's potential future independence, though of course it's far from a sure thing. Another region of the world we should be paying far more attention to...

These two posts are making me want to write a larger piece on Russia in recent weeks; if I find the time, I'll get around to it.

What's Up in Georgia?

No, not the drought-stricken US state where Governor Sonny Perdue (a name only a Georgian could elect) led state leaders in a prayer for rain. The former Soviet Republic whose so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 was supposed to be a harbinger of better times for the country and the region, is suddenly looking like it's business as usual.

Specifically, President Mikheil Saakashvili (whose name I spell from memory having written a paper on Georgian democratization), appears to be little better than the former Soviet appartchnik Eduarde Shevardnadze he replaced. The Times tries to make him out to be a Caucasian Putin, but the jury's still out - either way, it's a corner of the world the United States would be wise to pay close attention to.

Bonds Charged with Perjury

The Home Run King* has finally gotten his comeuppance - indicted by a federal grand jury in San Francisco on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice; ESPN's got the story here.

Oh and while we're at it, the NFL reinstated, and the Miami Dolphins welcomed back, disgraced running back Ricky Williams. His antics will give at least some reason to watch the Fins for the rest of the season...right?

Fred Slams Mitt

Or tries to at least in an email to supporters - Grandpa can't exactly throw punches. He's succeeded, though, in hitting the former Mass governor as both a big government liberal and a pro-choicer; for a campaign that's shown little sign of life, it's a step in the right direction (and builds on whatever momentum the endorsement earlier this week carried). I've copied the email below...

Mitt Romney says his government-mandated health care plan is one of his most important accomplishments as governor. But what does his plan really accomplish, and is this the kind of health care plan YOU would want to be forced to pay for?

Today, November 15^th, Massachusetts residents who fail to register with the government and show proof of health care coverage will be slapped with a tax penalty for this year!

For individuals, the amount will be on average $219 this year and they will receive a punitive fine as much as $2,000 over the next year.¹

Small business owner? It's even worse; you'll be fined $295 per employee who isn't enrolled in Romney's government-mandated health care plan!²

So what sort of services does Romney's health care pl an provide?

Per the state website:

$50 co-pay for abortions³

While court mandate requires Massachusetts to cover "medically necessary" abortions in state-subsidized health plans⁴, Mitt Romney's plan covers ALL abortions - no restrictions.⁵

After it passed, Romney vetoed dental care for Medicaid recipients from his health plan, but did nothing to prevent coverage of abortion on demand for a mere $50.⁶

Romney has tried to distance himself from his Hillarycare-type plan,⁷ but you can watch the video where he takes full credit. There's nothing conservative about Mitt Romney's health care plan. It's a government subsidized health care plan that requires citizens to register with the state, slaps working people with tax penalties, and provides $50 abortions on demand.

Contrast this with Fred:

• 100% pro-life voting record.
• Has said repeatedly that Roe v. Wade should be overturned.
• Opposes embryonic stem cell research and human cloning.

Tuesday, The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred. NRLC is the nation's largest pro-life organization representing over 3,000 local chapters in all 50 states.

Help support the true conservative.

https://www.fred08.com/Contribute.aspx

Thanks for your support,

Todd Harris
Communications Director
Friends of Fred Thompson