South Africa Takes A Big Step Backwards

South Africa is like Japan (until recently, at least) or Russia in that it's effectively a one-party state: become top dog in the ANC (African National Congress) and you're more or less assured the presidency. The ANC's political domination is of course in large part due to its role in the downfall of apartheid, but recent developments should make any sane observer wonder how much longer that should qualify them to keep power.

The party's national conference recently concluded; media reports make it out to be one part political, one part theatrical - think the Republican National Convention with dancing and chanting - and on the political side of things, Jacob Zuma became the heir apparent. His victory over incumbent president Thabo Mbeki was both surprising and unsurprising, but Zuma's triumph is enormously depressing.

This is the man who's tainted by corruption charges. More infamously, this is the polygamist who once raped a woman, claiming that her knee-length skirt was an invitation to do so, and despite the fact that she was known to be HIV positive; he later nonchalantly stated that he'd minimized risk of infection, as he'd taken a shower. Ladies and gentlemen, the next president of South Africa (and the former head of the National AIDS Council).

Which isn't to say Mbeki's an angel. HIV/AIDS is unequivocally the most important issue facing South Africa as well as the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa; Mbeki has publicly questioned the scientifically-proven link between the two. Instead, he claims it's a "disease of poverty," whatever exactly that means besides being a fine justification for a welfare state; his intransigence might also be rooted in his opposition to imperialism, despite the fact that Europeans left long before the AIDS epidemic exploded.

So why did the ANC do themselves and their country this disservice? The Tribune's correspondent (previous link) suggests that it's partially personal, partially political, with a dash of ethnicity to boot - Mbeki was a technocrat where Zuma is a populist, Zuma's populism has won him support of the party's left wing which Mbeki has alienated, Mbeki (like Mandela before him) is Xhosa, Zuma is Zulu (thus the polygamy). Some also think that perhaps the ANC will finally split, with Zuma forming a leftist party and Mbeki a center-left party. Coverage from the Times (New York) and Times ("Times") are also worth reading, though there is little novelty.