Congressional Rematch

Last year in the northern suburbs of Chicago, Democrat Dan Seals gave Republican incumbent Representative Mark Kirk a run for his money. The funny thing about this race in the state's 14th district was its unexpected nature. Although the DCCC was targeting plenty of races around the country (including the nearby 6th District - Roskam and Duckworth), the 10th was largely ignored. Despite being largely ignored by the establishment, Seals ran a strong campaign; Kirk won 53-47, closer than most observers had expected.


Seals is back for a rematch, but he's got a primary challenger in Jay Footlik, a former Clinton administration aid. According to Politico, Kirk, Seals, and Footlik have all been fund raising at a frenzied pace. Combined with the fact that both the NRCC and DCCC will be pouring resources into the race, this'll be one to watch. Chicago's collar counties (basically suburbia) have been going purple over the last couple years as is the trend in suburban areas across the country (suburban Northern Virginia's move to the left helped both Kaine and Webb win there in 2005 and 2006); traditionally Republican voters have moved even further away from urban areas into "exurbia." This trend has been especially true of the 10th district, complicating Kirk's job.

In the big picture, watching the 10th will be instructive. If Republicans want to regain Congress and maintain their control of the White House, it's suburban districts and voters they'll have to win over.

UPDATE: I don't know why I didn't think of this sooner, but Rahm Emanuel is also a former Clinton staffer - perhaps he recruited an old buddy to run? Why? Is it because Seals is black in a predominantly white district? Ooh that'd make the CBC mad!