Chris Cillizza's Stuck in History

I generally agree with, and always enjoy reading, Chris Cillizza's commentary at The Fix, but today I have to take issue. His long presidential Friday Line is generally uncharitable to Republicans, starting with the reasons the top five can't get the nomination, before conceding that Mitt Romney's best-situated to do so.

My biggest issue with the whole piece though, is his assessment of John McCain:

4. John McCain: The Arizona senator has had a good week. He won the endorsements of both the Boston Globe and the Des Moines Register and had a high-profile endorsement event in New Hampshire with Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.). McCain's campaign believes that his best chance to win New Hampshire is to follow his 2000 blueprint -- convince independents in large numbers to back his candidacy. Maybe. But won't that lead to a repeat of 2000 in South Carolina when Republicans refused to get behind McCain? (Previous ranking: 4)

What's my issue with that? The down-playing of the DMR and Manchester U-L endorsements (I'm still not certain of the value of Lieberman's contribution). But what really strikes me as myopic is his comment about McCain's performance in 2000 in New Hampshire and South Carolina. First off, it's not 2000. Then, his performance in New Hampshire may have hurt him in the Palmetto State but there was only candidate who could take advantage; if he's damaged in South Carolina, it's a tossup who will benefit. Further, given the nature of his insurgent candidacy in 2000, a single loss had the potential to be fatal - in 2008, that hardly seems to be the case. Further, between the two primaries, voters go to the polls in Michigan, where it's currently a two-man battle between McCain and Romney.

I also have to question his rankings. Romney at #1, I can see - he's the most viable candidate not named Huckabee in Iowa, and has leads in both New Hampshire and Michigan. He's also the best-funded. #3 Huckabee is leading in two states, Iowa and South Carolina. #2 Giuliani leads in Florida, which doesn't vote until the end of January - in the meantime, he could lose as many as four significant contests. And he's the #2? Really Chris, I know he's still got a lot of conventional wisdom behind him, but you can't "listlessness and sense of indecision within Giuliani's world," point out that he's not polling well in any of the four early states, and then still rank him #2. As much as I hate to say it, I think Huckabee's #2 in this horse race, and it's a tossup between Giuliani and McCain in third - where, to me, Giuliani's fundraising gives him the edge.