When Massachusetts Democrat Marty Meehan resigned to become Chancellor of UMass-Amherst, I never bothered to check the Fifth District's demographics - it's Massachusetts, right? Last time I checked, Republicans are hard-pressed to be elected anything other than governor there. That impression was reinforced when Niki Tsongas, wife of former Senator Paul Tsongas, won the Democratic primary. Game, set, match...right?
Well RCP's Reid Wilson suggests that maybe I shouldn't be so gloomily hasty, if for no other reason than the GOP's candidate in the MA-5 isn't your typical Republican. Jim Ogonowski has deep roots in the district, continues to run his family's three farms, and is a military veteran; his brother, another veteran, was the pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 on the morning of September 11th.
He's also polling pretty well - 51%-41% behind Tsongas according to internal campaign numbers - and his opponent hasn't released anything to contradict that which suggests they're looking at the same thing. It's also clear that Tsongas is being cautious if not alarmed - Bill Clinton and Pelosi have both come to stump for her.
Ogonowski's also doing himself a favor by running as the outsider, running ads featuring Pelosi, Murtha, DeLay, and Duke Cunningham (Pelosi's certainly in fine company there); his background as an agricultural activist and his support for green technology is also a boon.
The special election will be held October 16th, and will (as is the case with all special elections) be primarily a battle of get out the vote. It will also be worth watching.
Wilson also suggests that
A surprise showing from Ogonowski, even if it isn't a win, would dramatically change the conventional wisdom in Washington. While Congress' approval ratings are in the tank, few insiders believe that Democrats will not expand their majority in 2008, and a rash of recent articles have suggested that the Republican house is in shambles. Should Ogonowski come close to taking a seat for his party, pundits could take another look at the 2008 map, and perhaps conclude that a message like Ogonowski's - of change in Congress, no matter the party - could carry the day and hold some hope for Republicans.
Jim Ognowoski is on the web here; you can donate here (he is being strongly out-raised by Tsongas).
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