Things Going Down Hill For GOP in Senate Races

The last twenty-four hours haven't been especially kind to Republican hopes of retaking (or at least maintaining the status quo) in the Senate, with former Governor Mark Warner announcing that he'll run in Virginia and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen saying she'll do the same in New Hampshire. Both remain popular despite having vacated the governor's mansions years ago. Warner's running for an open seat (vacated by the retiring John Warner), while Shaheen is challenging incumbent Republican John Sununu. Sununu's one of the last vestiges of the New Hampshire GOP, which was more than decimated last year, losing control of both chambers of the state house. Granite State voters were especially peeved by Iraq, but I think their libertarianism is also offended by moralizing Republicans in thrall to the Religious Right.

This same factor is also hurting the GOP in Mountain West states, where a long libertarian traditional has become detached from the Republican Party. Wayne Allard (R-CO)'s retirement announcement means that Democrats have another shot at a pickup out there, and it's probably better than 50-50 they succeed. Assuming Larry Craig actually resigns, Idaho isn't in play, but if he stays in office, Democrats may have a shot there as well. All in all, not shaping up to be a good cycle for the GOP.