Rasmussen Weekly Roundup

Just got my Rasmussen Report weekly newsletter and I thought I'd pass along, and reanalyze, a gem within.

Our focus today is on New Jersey, where I think it's worthwhile to quote Rasmussen at length before offering my own take (the original piece can be found here).

Republican State Senator Tom Kean Jr., son of the former NJ Governor, again leads Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in New Jersey's race for U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Kean with 44% of the vote while Menendez is at 39%. In our last two polls, Menendez, an appointed incumbent, held a six-point lead.

To reflect the reversal, we are now revising our assessment of the contest from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Menendez thus becomes the only Senate Democrat not favored to win re-election. Three Republican incumbents (DeWine, Burns, Chafee) find themselves in Toss-Up races. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s (R) race is ranked as Leans Democrat.

The new numbers in the Garden State represent a dramatic shift from the last two polls, but the contest has been close all year. Neither candidate has been able to move above the low-40s in terms of voter support.

Kean has a famous name, but New Jersey leans Democrat. The candidates have been swapping charges of corruption and ethical conduct, and it may be that the incumbent is getting the worst of it. Kean has been slamming Menendez hard about rent he collected for several years from a nonprofit agency for which he helped get federal funding.

Menendez now attracts just 70% of Democrats (down from 77% in June, whereas Kean's support from the GOP base is now at 85%. Twelve percent (12%) of Democrats are "not sure" who to support. That's a pretty wobbly base as the race enters the home stretch.

Meanwhile, Kean enjoys a clear advantage not only with Republicans and conservatives but also with unaffiliated voters (43% to 29%) and moderates (52% to 33%).

Kean's "very favorable" number (14%) is twice as high as his "very unfavorable" (7%). The reverse is true for Menendez whose numbers are 16% "very unfavorable" and 9% "very favorable."

Forty-one percent (41%) of all voters see Menendez as politically liberal while 33% say he’s a moderate. Twenty-one percent (21%) don’t know enough to have an opinion. That’s high for an incumbent, but Menendez was appointed by Governor Corzine (D) and has held office for less than a year.

A plurality (42%) see the Republican challenger as politically moderate. Thirty-two percent (32%) say he’s a conservative and 19% are not sure.

So what stands out? First of all that Kean's coming back in a year where everyone says the Democratic tide is insurmountable. I think Rasmussen underestimates the effect of name recognition on Kean's success; it can't hurt when your father is a prominent ex-governor. Second is, as Rasmussen states, Menendez's unsteady base of support. This has also been proclaimed the year of change and a house-cleaning to rid Washington of corrupt members of Congress. On both counts, Menendez is hurting - he's the stereotypical crooked New Jersey pol, and he was never elected to this seat, merely appointed to serve out Corzine's term last year. Thus he also lacks a real record to run on. Given McGavick's recent personal admissions out in Washington, I think New Jersey might now be the GOP's best opportunity to pick up another Senate seat.