Rising Tempers in East Asia

It feels like all eyes are focused on Iraq these days - the 70 dead there recently have caused us to question whether or not we're actually winning the insurgency. We are. But in the meantime, I think we've been distracted from a more growing concern. In East Asia, storm clouds are gathering.

These are not the fluffy clouds of hot air created by appartchniks in Beijing and Tokyo, but rather deep rumblings from the Chinese street. We're heard all about the Arab street - Friedman references it regularly - but I believe it's the Asian street we must now listen to. Beneath the orderliness, nationalist feelings and ambitions, long supressed, are bubbling up. As we all know, the real catalyst for these protests was on the far side of the world, where Kofi Annan announced his plan to restructure the United Nations - including a permanent seat on the Security Council for Japan. In China, the government appears caught in a Catch 22. It can either play along with the hordes of protestors (which, incidentally, probably suits its policy goals), or it can repress them. Yet doing so likely incurs further dangers which they are unable to risk - the Communist government made much of its anti-Japanese credentials in the 40s and 50s, it likely fears a popular backlash, and (perhaps most importantly) they must seek to create a new "Chinese" identity for their nation based on something more than party membership.

Japan, on the other hand, has been remarkably silent. What I can see in their media (this without reading Japanese) is often defensive, though I doubt they'll back down on the Security Council issue. Right now, I don't see them overly concerned - after all, the Chinese government will not let popular sentiments interfere with economic profits. Or so we hope.

It's time for Americans to begin paying much more attention to East Asia. We seem to have convinced ourselves, in most circles at least, that the end of the Soviet Union meant the end of the superpower threat. Perhaps. Perhaps there is only a slim chance of a Sino-American war directly. But due to our long-term relationships with Taiwan and Japan, Chinese aggression could embroil us in such a war. So could a concerted Chinese expansion into the Middle East - it seems implausible, but China imports 40% of its total oil. Russia, too, may some day be confronted by an expansionist China. And of course, there is always the possibility of a clash between China and India, a conflict for Asian dominance. None of this is alarmist - it's all in the realm of possibility however. With globalization, a war in the Far East will be dangerously close to home. Let's keep our ears to the ground and an eye to the horizon.