Iowa Fireworks

Oh goody - the Des Moines Register has decided that having one crazy candidate (Ron Paul) on stage during presidential debates isn't enough. No, they need two - so they've gone ahead and invited repeat presidential candidate (and desperate Illinois Senate contender) Alan Keyes. Ed Morrissey's take on the story is worth reading.

However there seems to be a certain symmetry to this - Ron Paul represents the libertarian/socially moderate crazy wing of the party; Alan Keyes represents the religious zealotry/socially conservative crazy wing of the party.

Giuliani hasn't yet committed to this debate - wouldn't it be great if the other credible candidates backed out and left the stage to these two clowns? That isn't to call Tancredo and Hunter credible, just slightly more so than Crazy Uncle Ron and Keyes.

Huckabee Moves Into Two Spot

I've blogged a lot on Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who's starting to shake things up in Iowa.

Of course he was beginning to shake things up before the latest ABC/WaPo poll, released today: Huckabee polled at 24% - only 4 points behind Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the long-time leader in Iowa. The Post's piece rightly points out that much of Huckabee's boost came from Christian conservatives (which may factor into Giuliani's slump in their poll), but it'll be interesting to see if he gets a financial boost as well. ABC's story is long (4 pages) but worth at least skimming.

Yay Senate Races

Not really. My previous post was a quasi-in-depth/analytical look at Maine's Senate race; the good news there doesn't change the fact that others aren't exactly roses.

- Let's start with Virginia. Chris Cillizza has this as an almost sure-fire flip; he's right. Republican Jim Gilmore, a former Governor (he of the oh-so-brief presidential bid) is the presumptive nominee; he's also expected to be mauled by former Governor Mark Warner. Because, yes, Warner (he of the over-before-it-began presidential bid), is in; he's wildly popular and enormously wealthy. He projects a sufficiently blue-collar/good ol' boy image to be successful in traditionally Republican parts of the state - though the demographic swelling of the People's Republic of Northern Virginia is also to blame.

There's a silver lining, though, that only a blogger will indulge: I've heard rumors (without details, though from a credible source) that Warner's got at least one large skeleton in his closet. It's entirely plausible; if the Republican Party is aware, they weren't willing to use it when Warner ran for governor as the state GOP was in meltdown. That situation sounds eerily reminiscent of Illinois's situation in 2004, when Jack Ryan's self-destructing campaign meant that whatever dirt the party had on Obama (and again, I've heard well-founded rumors that there was dirt - you can't rise that fast in Chicago without something shady) was squirreled away for another day.

- New Mexico's also looking ugly, if only because Democrats have gotten themselves behind one candidate, Tom Udall (a member of that Democratic clan which has been so wildly successful in Mountain West politics). In contrast, Republicans are expecting a bruising primary between Representatives Heather Wilson (a moderate heavily targeted by the DCCC last cycle) and Steve Pearce (the self-anointed conservative candidate).

I hold out little hope for this race, but find it interesting as it illuminates the difference between the chairs of the NRSC and DSCC: Chuck Schumer's cleared the field for his boy, and he's making sure he gets it his way. John Ensign, despite the fact that people are pretty convinced Wilson's the more electable candidate, hasn't found a way to show Pearce the door. Ensign's failure to date may have something to do with the fact that the Republican Party as a whole has been a fundraising failure this cycle, allowing Pearce, no doubt funded by conservative groups, to keep up on the money trail.

This race is doubly painful because Wilson's campaign means she's not running for reelection to the House; in 2006, she won by a mere 875 votes out of some 211,000 cast. It's unlikely a Republican will win this open seat.

- Kentucky. Is it in play? Is it not? Cillizzas' got it at #10. Democrats are convinced McConnell's vulnerable. I'm still not sold on the prospect of a poisonous atmosphere next year, and Kentucky gave Bush nearly 60% of the vote in 2004. It's a state where Hillary Clinton's unlikely to poll well. In 2006, I would have said that Democrats had an argument; next year, I'm less convinced despite being gloomy about the Senate as a whole.

Good News in Maine?

Maine's a funny state: almost no one lives there (errant Canadians and moose aside). It's also a politically wacky state: Gore and Kerry won it, it has a Democratic governor and two Democratic Representatives, and two Republican Senators. Now Republican here is a loose usage of the term, less so than with Linc Chafee in Rhode Island, but Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe are hardly conservative firebrands.

Democrats and the Left have been busy attempting to paint Senator Susan Collins, up for reelection next year, as an out of touch conservative as well as a warmonger. Democrats already have as good a candidate as they're going to get in Congressman Tom Allen, who represents Maine's 1st District - aka the inhabited one. The race has consistently been listed in the lower half of the top 10 most competitive races by Chris Cillizza (latest update is here, worth reading in full).

Yet things don't seem to be going the Democrats' way. Two polls show Snowe sitting pretty; one has her up 54-34, though it's worth noting that 12% of respondents (408 likely voters over an 18 day period) are presently undecided. The other (and I link to DailyKos because they commissioned it, though with a notably independent pollster) has 55% saying they'd reelect Collins and shows the incumbent with a 23 point lead over Allen.

Republicans meanwhile are trumpeting this race; this email was sent out by the NRSC yesterday:

Dear Republican Supporter,

The race in Maine is shaping up to be nothing like the Democrats imagined. They have mistakenly named Susan Collins as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators running for re-election in 2008. But their predictions are turning out to be off the mark.

In a new poll out last week, Sen. Collins has a stunning 20-point lead. The poll shows Collins leading her opponent, Tom Allen, 54 percent -- 34 percent with only 12 percent of Maine voters undecided -- a great sign this early in the race. These results nearly mirror another poll out earlier this month that shows Sen. Collins leading the race with an even stronger 23 point lead.

Partisan Democrat U.S. Rep. Tom Allen cannot seem to gain the traction he is looking for to compete against Senator Collins, no matter how hard he tries. Though there is one thing that makes him stand out in the race: He has the grand distinction of being the Democrat that liberal extremist group MoveOn.org has donated the most money -- an astounding $250,000 so far this year. This distinction will show voters where his true loyalties lie.

Sen. Collins has an accomplished record of working hard for Mainers and its clear that the people of Maine respect that drive and dedication. Senator Collins has never missed a vote in the Senate and in contrast to that stellar record, her opponent, Rep. Tom Allen, has never had sponsored legislation enacted into law. It's this record that Tom Allen will be taking to Maine voters in his run against Sen. Susan Collins.

Not only is Tom Allen a MoveOn.org puppet, he's also an ineffective legislator.

Help us keep liberal, MoveOn.org-supported Democrat Tom Allen out of the U.S. Senate and support our efforts to ensure a Republican majority.

We're gaining the momentum we need to win. But we can't do it alone. Donate today, and together we will capture the U.S. Senate.

Thank you for your continued support.

Scott Bensing, Executive Director
National Republican Senatorial Committee

This is all well and good, but let's be clear: one race that doesn't look like a massacre in the making doesn't make up for Republican woes elsewhere. But I'll look at those separately.

When Chuck's Awed

So Michael Jordan's getting divorced; according to the Trib, his wife's getting a cool $15o million out of this. Your surprise, dear reader, is expected; what's not is that of Charles Barkley:

"You have to look at it two ways," Barkley, now an analyst for TNT, said. " 'Wow, that's a lot of money. Wow, that's a lot of money.' Then the second way, 'Damn, Michael's got a lot of money.' … Personally I would have to have somebody else write the check. You've got to be so [ticked] to write that check."

As he said, wow. And just because we're talking about His Airness, the greatest player ever to pull on a uniform - sorry Kobe, sorry 'Bron you guys aren't there yet - here's a great retrospective.

God was he good.

Other Overlooked Countries

While we're at it, Kosovo's prime minister, Agim Ceku (a name I can't spell from memory) writes on his country's potential future independence, though of course it's far from a sure thing. Another region of the world we should be paying far more attention to...

These two posts are making me want to write a larger piece on Russia in recent weeks; if I find the time, I'll get around to it.

What's Up in Georgia?

No, not the drought-stricken US state where Governor Sonny Perdue (a name only a Georgian could elect) led state leaders in a prayer for rain. The former Soviet Republic whose so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 was supposed to be a harbinger of better times for the country and the region, is suddenly looking like it's business as usual.

Specifically, President Mikheil Saakashvili (whose name I spell from memory having written a paper on Georgian democratization), appears to be little better than the former Soviet appartchnik Eduarde Shevardnadze he replaced. The Times tries to make him out to be a Caucasian Putin, but the jury's still out - either way, it's a corner of the world the United States would be wise to pay close attention to.

Bonds Charged with Perjury

The Home Run King* has finally gotten his comeuppance - indicted by a federal grand jury in San Francisco on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice; ESPN's got the story here.

Oh and while we're at it, the NFL reinstated, and the Miami Dolphins welcomed back, disgraced running back Ricky Williams. His antics will give at least some reason to watch the Fins for the rest of the season...right?

Fred Slams Mitt

Or tries to at least in an email to supporters - Grandpa can't exactly throw punches. He's succeeded, though, in hitting the former Mass governor as both a big government liberal and a pro-choicer; for a campaign that's shown little sign of life, it's a step in the right direction (and builds on whatever momentum the endorsement earlier this week carried). I've copied the email below...

Mitt Romney says his government-mandated health care plan is one of his most important accomplishments as governor. But what does his plan really accomplish, and is this the kind of health care plan YOU would want to be forced to pay for?

Today, November 15^th, Massachusetts residents who fail to register with the government and show proof of health care coverage will be slapped with a tax penalty for this year!

For individuals, the amount will be on average $219 this year and they will receive a punitive fine as much as $2,000 over the next year.¹

Small business owner? It's even worse; you'll be fined $295 per employee who isn't enrolled in Romney's government-mandated health care plan!²

So what sort of services does Romney's health care pl an provide?

Per the state website:

$50 co-pay for abortions³

While court mandate requires Massachusetts to cover "medically necessary" abortions in state-subsidized health plans⁴, Mitt Romney's plan covers ALL abortions - no restrictions.⁵

After it passed, Romney vetoed dental care for Medicaid recipients from his health plan, but did nothing to prevent coverage of abortion on demand for a mere $50.⁶

Romney has tried to distance himself from his Hillarycare-type plan,⁷ but you can watch the video where he takes full credit. There's nothing conservative about Mitt Romney's health care plan. It's a government subsidized health care plan that requires citizens to register with the state, slaps working people with tax penalties, and provides $50 abortions on demand.

Contrast this with Fred:

• 100% pro-life voting record.
• Has said repeatedly that Roe v. Wade should be overturned.
• Opposes embryonic stem cell research and human cloning.

Tuesday, The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Fred. NRLC is the nation's largest pro-life organization representing over 3,000 local chapters in all 50 states.

Help support the true conservative.

https://www.fred08.com/Contribute.aspx

Thanks for your support,

Todd Harris
Communications Director
Friends of Fred Thompson

The New Threats Watch

Unbeknownst to me (apparently unbenknownst is unbeknownst to blogger's spell-check), Threats Watch has undergone a major face lift; I only noticed when Blackfive made note of it. Check it out, lots of good stuff there. It's also been added to resources waaay down on the right sidebar.

Favorite Article of the Day (yesterday)

Apparently Democrats are a whopping 0 for 40 on votes pertaining to surrendering in Iraq; the one that passed both chambers was vetoed and the override failed. The growing consensus seems to be that Democrats have waited too long and been too impotent and that the surge's success in recent months has cut the ground out from under them.

There's a scene in the second season of West Wing wherein Communications Director Toby Ziegler berates a Knick for going 1 for 27 from the field, noting that "that's one better than my grandmother could do. And she's dead."

DKos to be in Newsweek

Newsweek has apparently decided that its readership isn't satisfied with their in-house leftish nonsense; no they want more. Thus they've contracted with Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, Kos of DailyKos, to be among their 2008 correspondents. They've promised to find an equally obnoxious right-winger; my first thought is "what's David Duke up to?"

For his part, Ed Morrisey - far more fair-minded than I - views this as a fundamentally good thing for the blogosphere.

I also think, David Duke comments aside, that it'll be hard to find a right wing equivalent to Kos; as a whole, the left wing blogosphere is far angrier and more obscene; they lack the measured voices of a Captain Ed or a Glenn Reynolds (don't believe me? Take a look at firedoglake).

DiFi versus Her Own Party

I've come to have a rather grudging respect for Dianne Feinstein in recent weeks and months; especially on judicial issues, California's senior senator has had the chutzpah to do whats right and stand up to the rabid among her party (who am I kidding? They're all rabid). This was especially evident on two votes - to get Leslie Southwick (confirmed by the Senate on 10/24) out of committee and to get AG Mukasey out committee - for which she was widely reviled.

Now she may get a slap on the wrist from the California Democratic Party for her...you know...doing what the Constitution says she's supposed to do; a bunch of Left Coast "progressive" organizations are seeking her censure at this weekend's party executive meeting. The story's here, though it's from Huff Po so be warned.

Huckabee Surprises

So it's no secret that I'm somewhat fond of Mike Huckabee - I like him as a human being, which is more than I can say about most other presidential candidates (and politicians in general), but I find him weak or poorly-informed on many crucial issues (especially foreign policy) and disturbingly populist on the economic front.

Therefore it's with mixed feelings that I report this latest CBS/New York Times poll, which has Huckabee at 21% in Iowa - only 6 points behind field leader Mitt Romney. Of course he's only really seeing progress in Iowa; the same poll found him polling at 6% (behind Crazy Uncle Ron) in the Granite State.

All of this may be irrelevant, yet for the same reason raises some interesting points about modern campaigning: $$$. Huckabee's basically broke, whereas Romney's spent a fortune in Iowa - and the two are only separated by six. But that's Iowa, and he's unlikely to translate even a strong second-place finish there into success elsewhere unless he collects a lot of checks in the interim.

While we're at it, the same poll also shows the widely accepted Democratic dead heat in Iowa - Clinton 25%, Obama 22%, Edwards 23%. It doesn't seem as if Iowa voters are bothered by her issues in recent weeks (even though some, like the planted questions mini-scandal, have occured in their backyard), but if on Thursday night in Las Vegas she turns in a debate performance like that in Philly, well that may begin to change.

Spanish King Slaps Down Chavez

Monarchy certainly still has its uses - as when King Juan Carlos of Spain, at a summit in Chile, told Venezuelan Idiot-in-Chief Hugo Chavez to shut up. It's not like Chavez didn't have it coming - he publicly denounced former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, then going on to claim that fascists are (to borrow a term from one) untermensch, and that snakes have more in common with humans than fascists. Cute - and this bastard is idolized by the American Left.

Of course Chavez, el macho man that he is, can't take his very public shaming quietly; instead he's lashed out at the King, claiming that his majesty had advanced knowledge of the anti-Chavez coup of 2002. If the king knew, he's got a perfect chance to call out Chavez for the authoritarian thug he is; he should say nothing less than "Yes, I knew; and given your actions since then - a tyrannical, authoritarian thug who is willingly undermining his nation's future - I wish it had succeeded."

New Democratic House Strategy

Huh. Rahm Emanuel, Chris Van Hollen and the rest of the crowd at the D-Trip have come up with an interesting new strategy for disbursing their financial resources: among Democratic incumbents, only spend in those districts where the NRCC is spending.

It's smart: they're playing a lot of offense next year, and unless incumbents are in deep trouble, they can take care of themselves. Given the enormous cash disparity between the two parties, Republicans won't be targeting many incumbent Democrats anyways. For those Dems who are already flush with cash and in conservative districts, not having the national party visible in their district may allow them to further themselves from their egregiously unpopular national party.

This is also emblematic of the way in which the Democratic Party's pulling ahead of the GOP on the ground - the money helps of course, and they still haven't beaten the Republican Party's infamous "72 Hour Plan" GOTV operation, but they're learning. Thankfully, the national environment in 08 is unlikely to be anywhere near as poisonous to Republicans as it was in 06.

Churchill and the Jews

"Churchill and the Jews" is the entirely un-PC title of a good-looking book by Martin Gilbert, reviewed on today's Opinion Journal; it opens with a Churchill quote I'd never heard before: "Why should we Anglo-Saxons apologize for being superior? We are superior."

Which brought to mind perhaps the most absurd comment of the week, that by Columbia U professor George Saliba: "All modern discoveries are by Muslims scientists." I'll leave you to ponder that one.

Top 100 Conservatives and Liberals

The UK's Telegraph has compiled their list of the top 100 liberals and conservatives in America, based on well...I'm not entirely sure what. They defend from the outset Bush's exclusion from the top 20 on the conservative side. I'm not sure their defense is so necessary - he's not exactly well-loved by anyone these days. I'll just make a few observations.
Conservatives:
- I've got problems with many if not most of their top 20 - Giuliani at #1? Really? While it's somewhat vindicated by Robertson's endorsement, I doubt they weren't being prescient.
- Petraeus at #2 and Gates at #7 are especially eyebrow-raising. Gates more so than Petraeus.
- Drudge at #4? He's still got clout, but his glory days are over - he was the front edge of the wave, and now we're inundated.
- Andrew Sullivan? Drew Carey?
- What's their thing with Giuliani and his coterie?
- Rove is absurdly low at #42...he may be out but he ain't that down
- PJ O'Rourke above Scalia and Jindal?
- Chuck Norris?!
- O'Reilly at #82 is absurd

Liberals:
- I'm just amused that Mark Penn is ranked above Her Majesty
- Bayh at #11? In what world?
- Kos at #12? Thanks for handing the party over to the crazies, Telegraph!
- Edwards (Elizabeth) over Edwards (John)...
- Howard Dean at #84? Below Sorkin, Streisand, Colbert, some rank and file Reps...
- (unless I missed him) no Charlie Rangel? The man's going to try and rewrite the tax code - he's a pretty important liberal right now...

Wow this is a discombobulated post.

[ed: I meant to blog on this a few days ago...whoops]

Remember, Remember the 5th of November

The 5th of November, known in England as Guy Fawkes Day, may become known in the US as the Ron Paul Crazies day: if you missed it, on Monday Ron Paul hauled in some $4.2 million, a single day record for a US politician. Hooray for a few thousand weirdos in their parents basements with internet connections and credit cards; the charges will probably be bookended by subscriptions to internet porn and Dungeons & Dragons memorabilia. To be fair, it was 35,000 basement-dwelling troglodytes...I can't wait for this particular pile of FEC data to be released.

The Politico story linked to above is titled "Ron Paul Gets Relevant in a Hurry" - I think that's a a dramatic overstatement - while he will be able to afford plenty of airtime in Iowa and New Hampshire, it doesn't matter if you don't have supporters in-state. Those 35,000 donors are likely scattered across the country, without any real geographic focus - and even if they are, some 65,000 votes were cast in New Hampshire's open primary in 2004 (open meaning voters can select either ballot).

The whole Guy Fawkes tribute thing sort of creeps me out - and brings to mind this YouTube video, which was the first I'd heard of their November 5th plot (for what it's worth, they fell far short of their 100,000 donor goal there).

Given that I'm two days late on this, I'll just link to some more coverage and analysis:
Hot Air
A Politico piece on Trevor Lyman, the man behind Ron Paul
Captain's Quarters
More to come, perhaps? Again, no Republican Party tag for Crazy Uncle Ron.

Yowza

When Sam Brownback dropped out of the race a few weeks ago, there was some chatter that perhaps he'd endorse Rudy Giuliani, thus giving him some badly-needed credibility among social conservatives. Well, Brownback will endorse McCain this afternoon.

Rudy, for his part, has gone one better: he'll be endorsed by religious leader Pat Robertson. For a candidate whose always been criticized for being too liberal on the social issues, this is a huge leg up, and comes in the wake of Romney's endorsement by Paul Weyrich, one of the major players in the founding days of the Religious Right. Romney, I think, has gotten more major endorsements from the leading social conservatives than either Giuliani or McCain, but I also think Giuliani's got the momentum overall.

I do think, however, that Fred Thompson has been left standing at the door by the Religious Right. I for one think that it's too late for him; he should close up shop and go back to Law & Order.

Also hurt by these endorsements is Mike Huckabee; he was the natural for the support of men like Robertson and Brownback, and their shunning him basically dooms him to the second tier.