Friday, July 20, 2007

More Russian Shenanigans (with update)

I noted yesterday the Russian Foreign Minister's absurd comments, blaming the tit-for-tat expulsions between the UK and Russia on Gordon Brown. But in terms of what Russia's up to these days, it's just par for the course and a couple more tidbits simply reinforce that impression.

First off, the Kremlin continues to refuse a British extradition request for ex-KGB spook Andrei Lugovoi, who may have been involved in the Litvinenko assassination. However, they assure the UK that Comrade Lugovoi will be investigated in the Russian court system...which I don't find very compelling.

Second of all, Russia has been meddling in the Balkans again, threatening to veto any UN resolution calling for an independent Kosovo. The province, presently under a UN mandate, is technically still a part of Serbia; though its population of ethnic Albanians want independence, the Serbian minority there (as well as the Serbian government and its Russian allies) are opposed to such a development.

Meanwhile, a worthwhile piece in the Economist (subscription only?) chronicles Serbian divisions over that stance, given that a restive Serbian Kosovo may sink any bid for them to join the EU. Some (who no doubt still morn Milosevic's demise) feel that keeping Kosovo is worth such a price; others are more focused on the EU and willing to deal on Kosovo. But of course Russia isn't interested in seeing events in the region proceed without their approval; Putin recently claimed that the Balkans were a "sphere of Russian special interest and that it was 'natural that a resurgent Russia is returning there.'" Or perhaps a Kosovar put it more succintly: “we are just the first victims of the new Russian imperialism.”

The EU, US, and UN need to find a way to resolve this Kosovo impasse; perhaps unilateral recognition of the province's independence is the best remaining option. But Russia needs to be made to understand that it can't influence the Balkans as it used to (and it's unlikely that the Red Army could march on the Bosphorus as it did in the 1870s); indeed they really need to understand that theirs is an alcoholic, dying country, propped up by oil and gas revenues, but hardly mattering in the grand scheme of things. And the international community should recognize that and admit the authoritarian nature of its regime - expel Moscow from the G8, help Europe diversify its gas supplies, and staunchly support anti-Russian governments throughout the former Soviet Union. So long as Russia is allowed to throw its weight around, it will do so; how much longer that will be permitted can only be answered in Washington and Brussels.

UPDATE: Ed Morrisey's take on the situation, and the revelation (which I'd missed) that Russia has announced it will not cooperate with the UK on intelligence matters. While he's right in noting that this sort of controlled escalation tactic is also old hat, oft-used during the Cold War, it doesn't change the fact that Western governments seem to be deluding themselves as to the true nature of the Russian government (Bush has never been more wrong than with his Putin "I looked into his eyes" schtick).

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