Thoughts on the Presidential Race

Nothing too deep here, just that I've become fed up with Fred Thompson's inability to commit to the race; as someone noted, at his height and weight, he's not exactly coquettish. So I'm done with him for the time being, and now I'm leaning back towards Rudy. Why? Because he's bright, right, articulate, and electable.

So the Fred widget will be gone from the sidebar, replaced by a Rudy widget.

The End of an Era

After 38 years, the British Army is ending its operation in Northern Ireland. When it began in 1969, the Army expected to be in the provinces for mere weeks. That low-intensity conflict certainly helped shape the British military and establishment, in ways that are affecting us today. Perhaps most importantly, the establishment showed a willingness to try and meet the IRA and others halfway, a willingness that is now on display towards Islamists in Britain.

Data Shows Durbin Vulnerable?

That's the claim from a poll cited on Illinois Review, which pegs the approval rating of the Senate's #2 Democrat at 49% favorable/24% unfavorable, and almost a dead heat (36%-33%) on whether he puts Illinois or Washington first.

As much as I'd love to see Durbin returned to private life, none of this data paints a picture of vulnerability by any stretch of the imagination. It's actually difficult to gauge any sort of vulnerability on Durbin's part due to a real paucity of polling data. No Senator's invulnerable, but Durbin's not exactly an endangered incumbent at present.

Oh and I treat these numbers with the greatest degree of skepticism because of the poll itself - only 400 respondents, MOE +/-4.9%, no notes as to who the pollster is etc.

Better Days Ahead for London

Having finally finished Melanie Phillip's Londonistan (I'll try and get a review up tomorrow), I'm hard-pressed to predict a bright future for either Britain or London. However, Emily Henderson, New Criterion's perceptive and endlessly amusing summer intern, provides hopes for a slight improvement: Conservative Boris Johnson has entered London's mayoral race. Admittedly, I'd be hard-pressed to pick this particular Johnson out of a lineup, nor was his name a particularly significant one to me prior to today, so in accepting this as a positive development, I have to take Miss Henderson's word.

But let's be entirely honest. Almost anything is an improvement to London's present Lord Mayor, the ultra-leftist Ken Livingstone.

Democrats Fearing Victory?

For a while now, I've thought (and perhaps blogged?) that the latest round of Democratic shenanigans, attempting to force a pullout from Iraq without waiting for Petraeus's September progress report, was driven by fear. Fear that the good news coming out of Iraq (and if you're not hearing it, you're simply choosing to ignore it) is a harbinger of things to come, a sign that the tide has finally turned and that the definite potential for victory exists. If so, Democrats are going to look pretty damn stupid. Their solution? Short-circuit things to avoid that outcome. If true, I will again overflow with disgust for this party - that they'd throw our troops and the Iraqi people under the bus for short-term political gain.

And I'm not alone in thinking this - Thomas Sowell agrees. He notes, and I agree (and they understand) that victory in Iraq likely means a Republican presidential victory in 2008. Here's hoping.

Edwards Getting Talking Points from Harper's?

It sure looks that way: this week's Harper's cover story is a piece by Kevin Baker, a novelist/essayist/critic who apparently has it out for Hizzonor (he's the author of at least two pieces savaging the man's mayoral record) claims that he would be worse than Bush. Lo and behold, John Edwards comes out and says that Giuliani would be Bush on steroids in San Francisco. Shady.

Sir Elton the Luddite

He admits as much, and also says we should shut the internet down. Why? Because it's killing artistic creativity of course! I liked his old music, but now the diva's lost it; dare we say the fellow's more of a disaster than Billy Joel driving?

Another Positive Review and a Jumping-Off Point

Warm reviews for economist Bryan Caplan's The Myth of the Rational Voter continue to pile up (indeed, I thought I'd made mention of the book here before, but can't find any such post). The latest is that of John Stossel - though warm may be a trite too optimistic; reviewers recognize the value of the book and its contribution to the discussion of voting behavior, turnout, etc., but no one is exactly cheered by its message.

NRO's Jonah Goldberg (writing on Townhall), however, goes one step further. He points out that if Caplan's arguments are correct then we shouldn't be trying to increase turnout (the ones who stay home in the first place are stupid) or make voting mandatory. Instead, in what is truly (a welcome) anti-democratic effort, he suggests that if immigrants must take a test to become citizens (and thus vote) why shouldn't we subject native-born citizens to such a test? Obviously it wouldn't go over too well in much of the US - Democrats and Republicans alike would scream bloody murder. Such distinctions within the electorate were quickly destroyed in the earliest days of the US; I doubt they'll make a return in the "enlightened" modern era. But he does breach a subject that has been wholly untouched by the recent immigration debate; namely changing the qualifications of citizenship so that one does not become a citizen automatically by being born here. In that the US is relatively alone in the West, and while it might give us warm fuzzy feelings inside, it also creates plenty of ingrates - both of native and immigrant stock. Maybe it's time to start talking about this?

Sharia Is Just Like Western Law

So say the Saudis...except of course for things like this:

Claims must be proven and substantiated by two male witnesses, preferably Muslim, or one male witness and two females, or one male and the oath of the claimant.

Render that mathematically: 2 women = 1 man.

Why are liberals opposed to crushing al Qaeda?

Koran In Toilet = Hate Crime

Last year, a senior at Pace University allegedly tossed a Koran in a campus toilet on two separate occasions (so two Korans, two toilets); he's now charged with a pair of felonies for those actions (I believe on the grounds that what he did was "hate speech"). I saw the story the other day, didn't have time to blog about it. Thankfully Rick Moran over at Right Wing Nut House has more time than I do. Read it and be shocked, and then spread the word. And to think Congress just expanded the definition of hate crimes...

Congressional Rematches

Politico reviews a bunch of Congressional rematch races - both Democrats who didn't quite make it last time, and Republicans who got sloppy and didn't put up a big enough fight. I agree with the general sentiment - that for Democrats, it's over; if they couldn't win last cycle under almost ideal circumstances, they probably can't win next year. Anyways, many of them have drawn primary challengers for exactly that reason.

Of course this doesn't mean that narrowly-victorious Republican incumbents should breathe easy, but should instead get ready for a fight. And can the defeated Republicans make a comeback? Probably not.

This Really and Truly Galls Me

Michelle Malkin caught a story that truly sticks in my craw: in Britain, education bureaucrats have proposed striking from the curriculum the requirement that students be taught about Sir Winston Churchill; they also proposed that more "relevant" topics such as global-warming be taught. Needless to say, Churchill's grandson, Tory MP Nicholas Soames, was furious; he said that “It’s total madness. The teaching of history is incredibly important. If people do not seem to care about the country in which they live, the reason is that they don’t know much about it.” I entirely agree with you, sir.

According to the Sun, though, Winny isn't the only figure of historical import facing the axe: off the mandatory list are Stalin, Hitler, Gandhi, MLK, the War of the Roses (probably an unheard-of event to my American readers), Elizabeth I, and Henry VIII. So perhaps facing the axe was a bad pun.

This simply forces the question of what will students be taught in their history classes? All of these figures (save perhaps MLK) are crucial in the development of modern Britain, and one would think indispensable components of a true education. The Sun doesn't highlight exactly why WSC should be cut, I'd be interested to know. Perhaps because tenacious fighters who doggedly insisted that Britain never never never give up, or noted that "an appeaser is one that feeds the crocodile, hoping it will eat him last," or who rightly said that a fanatic is one who "won't stop talking and won't change the subject" might complicate the process of British submission to Islam. You know, restore their stiff upper lip and all. I'm truly aghast.

I Agree with Susan Estrich

And subsequently, pigs fly. Estrich makes an argument that screwed-up actress Lindsay Lohan should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, both for driving while drunk on a suspended license and for possession of coke (which she claims wasn't hers). This means jail time. I entirely agree - Lohan should be put away for as long as the law allows, given no preferential treatment, and generally reminded that she isn't above the laws of the rest of society. Don't like it? Too bad, your own decisions got you there.

Oh and can we find a way to make celebrity prisoners like Paris and Lindsay pay for their jail time rather than burden the state with it?

And one other thing: no doubt many of these "stars" spill to their publicists when they get on the wrong side of the law. I doubt many of these publicists are lawyers, and thus (I think) could be forced to testify without any claim of any sort of attorney-client privilege. If those clowns who cover for their messed-up bosses want to illegally cover for them, hey, we can always find more room in jail.

South Dakota Senate

Last night, I ran through the top 10 Senate races, including South Dakota's, where incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson's recent medical emergency has created some unique challenges for Republicans looking to run against him. Politico's got the story as well as some updates on his rehabilitation.

An Open Seat in Illinois

The Crypt reports that seven-term Republican incumbent Ray Lahood of Illinois will not seek reelection. Despite its giving Bush 58% of the vote in '04, the D-Trip has already expressed interest. They'll need a good bit of luck, including Obama as the nominee. Though personally speaking, I'm not sure if I buy into the conventional wisdom that Obama's clinching the nomination will radically affect the state's political dynamics. In Obama's only statewide race, he admittedly garnered 70% of the vote - but he was running against Alan Keyes! I think a lot depends on who the GOP's nominee is - if it's Giuliani, the Obama Effect may be muted.

So far this is the only open-seat race in Illinois, and I don't think any others are likely to arise.

Badge of Honor

Malkin also reports that CAIR's going after Rudy for his use of the phrase "Islamic terrorism." Bravo to him for speaking the truth and bollocks to the grievance-mongering clowns of CAIR.

More Food for Thought

Now that we have a Muslim member of Congress, how long before we find a new term for pork projects, for fear of offending Keith "9/11 = Reichstag Fire" Ellison? I say offend away.

Brownback Gets Dirty

Michelle Malkin reports that Kansas Senator and long-shot presidential candidate Sam Brownback has gotten nasty of late, attacking Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo for their records on abortion. First of all, I'd nearly forgotten that Brownback was running. Second of all, when he's lashing out at nonentity like Tancredo, you know his goose is cooked. Oh and he used robocalls, a widely-despised tactic, to do so, meaning it probably had an even more negative impact than is presently apparent.

I agree with Michelle: end the agony, Sam.

Barbarism Bites Back

A heartening bit of news: Iraqi associates of al-Qaeda, disgusted by the organization's brutality, are turning against it, informing on its activities to Coalition troops. While this still seems somewhat anecdotal, it is heartening. I also think that it's probably also being affected by the surge (and the article almost says as much). The presence of US troops and the increasing desperation of AQ's measures, means that those who have become disenchanted have a way out. I really do think things are looking up, but we have to give our armed forces the time they need.

"A binge diet of junk social science"

So say two academics disgusted at the sort of biased "studies" being peddled to Congress. Check it out. I mean I don't even have my undergraduate degree, let alone a PhD, and I've already had it drilled into me that you cannot manipulate your data to produce a desired outcome. Apparently that rule doesn't apply to Harvard professors?
[h/t: the Corner]