Morning News Update

Anything mildly important/interesting/amusing that happened while I slept.

• The Heat beat the Mavs 95-92 last night to clinch their first franchise championship; if you read this here first, you're pathetic.
  
• I'm starting to think the award for "Most Dangerous Job in Iraq" goes to Saddam's defense team - three of them have been killed since his trial began. As much of a farce as it is, and that's thanks almost entirely to the former dictator's delusional antics, it's good to see the Iraqi people pursuing him through rule of law rather than vigilante justice. Yet because they're trying to address these issues legally, it really is unfortunate that his lawyers keep dying.
• Chris Cilizza reports on the Democratic fundraising lead, a lead that is only extant in comparing Congressional and Senatorial committees; the DNC is still getting kicked around by the RNC. And the latest NRCC/NRSC numbers don't include the $27 million that Bush raised for them on Monday night!
• Bush is in Vienna talking to the EU - because they so obviously respect the President and are honestly going to listen to what he has to say. Send flowers and a letter of condolences for their slowly collapsing economies.
• North Korea is still rattling its cage. If they follow through with their harebrained threats (backed up by some of the worst logic and reasoning I've ever heard), it won't prove that Kim Jong-Il ranks among the ballsiest world leaders, merely the stupidest. Complain about the picture if you want, it's early, I think it's funny.

More later.

A Blog Most Worth Visiting

I just added a link that should have been up long ago, to a blog called "Not Your Average GI Joe" - the author is going through US Special Forces qualifications and his story is both enlightening and inspiring. Read, enjoy, share.

I Really Hope Our Missile Defense Shield Works

Apparently Washington and Pyongyang have gotten into what might be described as an international ballistic pissing contest. If you live under a rock, the story in short is that North Korea is threatening to launch a missile that has the potential to hit Alaska if not the mainland US; needless to say I suspect that's got some folks pretty nervous at the Pentagon so we're threatening to strike back and shoot it down using our vaunted missile defense system. Of course the problem is so far the thing has proven to be a pile of junk, incapable of hitting its intended target; now with national pride on the line, I really hope we get lucky. Oh, Leno last night: "Since we're exchanging knowledge here, it might be good for them to know we have a few thousand missiles that could reach North Korea in about an hour. In fact, if Kim Jong-Il ordered a pizza right now, our missile would get there first." Good point. We could reduce North Korea to a stinking inhospitable pile of rocks populated by starving people - but isn't that what it is already?

Signs of the Apocaylpse (+ Apologies)

Back on 6/6/06, Letterman did a top 10 signs of the Apocalypse. They were funny, but I'll add one to that: A Southern team has won the Stanley Cup...by beating a Canadian team. Now honestly I'm not much of a hockey fan, but since when did Southerners get so into hockey? The RBC Arena in Raleigh was PACKED for all of the Hurricanes' games; maybe they're just nuts about all sports? (After all this is the region that is home to the greatest rivalry in sports, namely Duke-UNC).

ALSO - Slow day at the office thus I'm trying to catch up with everything I've been ignoring for days/weeks...I'll try and be more regular, I just haven't discovered how to fit blogging into my overall schedule.

Stevens to Retire?

WSJ's Political Diary today noted the ever-present rumors that Justice John Paul Stevens, a reliably liberal member of the Supreme Court, and one appointed by Republican Gerald Ford, might retire at the end of the term. It was a year ago on July 1st that Sandra Day O'Connor retired, so such a move would have a well-remembered precedent. Should Stevens retire, the ramifications will be far greater than when O'Connor stepped down.

For one, with a number of hotly-contested Senate races this fall, the bases of both parties could be mobilized by a vociferous debate. Two Democrats whose political careers are on the line voted against Roberts; four such Democrats (plus one Republican) voted against Alito. The pressure on Ben Nelson of Nebraska will be especially fierce considering his votes for both Roberts and Alito. With a formerly liberal seat on the line, expect not only Harry Reid, but also MoveOn.org and the whole bunch of usual leftwing suspects to break his arm and vote no. If he votes to confirm, it'll be interesting to see if Move On and the rest continue to villify him (possibly handing his seat to a Republican) or whether they don't shoot the party in the foot.

Also of interest is the nominee; WSJ predicts a woman, I'm inclined to think so as well. Attempting to put Miers on the bench was a stupid move by Bush (she was undeniably an intellectual lightweight); given the chance he'll likely nominate another woman. Some of the names WSJ suggests are mildly familiar ones: Janice Rogers Brown and Priscilla Owen became household names among political junkies during the Senate's "nuclear option" standoff. As they point out (and I'm proud to say I can also take credit for the same thought), with Brown, Bush would be putting the first minority woman on the bench.

Of course before all of this debate and strife can begin, Justice Stevens needs to retire.

Global Warming Brouhaha

So somehow the liberals behind the global-warming scare machine slept through biology (possibly because there wasn't a Marxist interpretation - things evolve for survival not profit or proletarian revolution) and thus seem to lack any sort of broader perspective about global history. The world, I would argue, has gone through repeated periods of cooling (i.e. ice ages) and warming ("when dinosaurs ruled the Earth"). So, call me crazy, isn't it possible that we're experiencing such a shift now? Of course the larger questions are this: how much are we enhancing the effects of an otherwise natural climactic change; and how much temperature shift can modern society take without suffering some sort of collapse? On a related note, the Norwegians have begun construction of what some are calling a "Noah's Ark" of crop seeds, a vault whose purpose it is to preserve seed samples from around the world in case of some catastrophic disaster. Not to be a naysayer, but if the Norwegians don't survive, how are we going to find the damn thing?

Priceless

From Wonkette, just because I'm endlessly amused, another lesson about being careful what you put on Facebook. Any thoughts on how this one will play in Tennessee?? (And yes I'm being a malicious gossip).

It has come to my attention...

That there is a journalist on RedState under the alias young-pundit. For the record, it's not me - but his first entry seems like a good one and I'm sure he'll be putting more good stuff otu there in the future. So from youngpundit to young-pundit, bravo and encore!

Webb's Win...and What it Means

This will be brief; I've got guests but I can't resist putting my thoughts out on Jim Webb's victory in Virginia today. Webb beat Harris Miller, and convincingly so, doing well even in districts and precincts perceived to be pro-Miller strongholds. However not too much can be really read into this: turnout was about 3.5%, with less than 150,000 people showing up to exercise their most obvious political freedom. So really people could care less; maybe Democrats at large think Allen's invincible regardless of candidate. And I think he is. I don't think even the vaunted Jim Webb can beat George Allen. But what I think he can do is bruise Allen (and force him to spend so heavily) so as to prevent him from really laying the groundwork for a Presidential bid. In any case, Webb's victory may again speak, with the support of the Tester victory and the detraction of the Busby loss in the CA-50, to the power of the netroots. Webb got in late and didn't have the money, but he still won. He is more than a sacrificial lamb on the altar of George Allen, but how much more remains to be seen.

More Crunchable Numbers

The Granholm-Devos race is getting interesting; Kos has the latest numbers here. That DeVos is up probably says something about the way the economy's behaved with Granholm in office (I'll give you a hint - pisspoor). Michigan voters want change and want a guy who can improve their ailing economy, and they'll start by ditching Granholm in November. (With data like this the exultant Democratic claims of this being their year of revolution seem slightly bizarre).

UPDATE
As my anonymous critic correctly points out, there is indeed a Rasmussen poll coming out this afternoon showing Granholm up 44%-42% on DeVos - numbers that even Kos admits are "well under the 50 percent "safe" mark;" a margin that minute is also, in all likelihood, within the margin of error...still feeling so confident?

And on outsourcing - outsourcing, experts say, produces a cumulative churning effect wherein although jobs are lost, overall there is actually net gain of jobs...but outsourcing aside maybe Michigan voters are ready for an end to Granholm's tax and spend policies?

Bob Byrd...

is now the longest-serving Senator in history, surpassing even Strom Thurmond and others as of yesterday. Hasn't West Virginia seen the same face long enough? Isn't now as good as any time for a change? John Raese is a good man and would make a great Senator and heir to Byrd's seat.

AZ Senate

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Arizona shows that Pedersen has failed to make a real dent in that state, probably because of his failure to take a strong stand on immigration. The report also indicates that McCain's stance on immigration, the sort of posture favored by Pedersen, is seen as less popular; I have a growing feeling that McCain's immigration bill will be lethal to his presidential aspirations in 2008. Though I have been wrong before.

Elections Update

Big night tommorow - VA primaries, Webb and Miller. I have a suspicion that Miller might win, based primarily on what might be his strength in populous urban areas. I'm not entirely sure how a conservative Democrat will play in truly blue districts. Either candidate's victories will have serious implications for George Allen in November. I think Miller may be the easier challenge; if it's Webb, however, Allen's got a run for his money.

Still sorting out Edwards' surprisingly strong showing in that Iowa straw poll. I suppose I shouldn't be entirely surprised, Iowa is still union country and Johnny E. is still a union fantasy. A Vilsack endorsement in December 07 might ice his victory there, but I don't think he'll get the nomination...which all of a sudden means the focus shifts to New Hampshire, (random Western caucus state?), and South Carolina, states where HRC may not run well. Feed it into the gristmill, let's see what you come up with.

Congress Watch

John Boehner is apparently in line to get some important support from Ray LaHood (R IL-18), a key instate ally of Denny Hastert's. Implication being that Hastert's backing Boehner rather than Missourian Roy Blunt. According to most ideological ratings, the two are different with LaHood standing closer to the middle than Boehner (who is in turn similar to Blunt). But despite their surface similarities, it seems that Boehner has claimed the middle position, one that's less than popular in the GOP caucus I suspect. Perhaps that's why Hastert refuses to move up the election - to give his chosen candidate more time to garner the necessary support.

A Dangerous (Partisan?) Game

I'm not even going to bother complaining about Cindy Sheehan, Katrina, or Ronnie Earle - my target today is one Irwin Redlener up at Columbia. A little background on this is necessary. As many of you will know, Asia is currently affected by an avian influenza epidemic to which we have no natural defense. Obviously, that makes very potent and pathogenic. Right now it's not a terribly big deal, because it can only be transmitted from birds to humans, not humans to humans; unfortunately there is a very real possbility that it may mutate to allow human to human trasmission. In that case, expect to see a very deadly pandemic, more leathal than the infamous "Spanish Flu" outbreak of 1918. As bad as that one was, this one will be worse thanks to modern travel which can easily spread it to almost every part of the world overnight.

For the last several years, scientists have known about H5N1, this particular strain of avian flu. But their warnings have fallen on deaf ears for reasons that I can only speculate are political. Finally though, officials have started listening and paying attention. The President recently discussed this issue at the United Nations, and health ministers will meet in Canada next month. This is all positive, especially the President's serious discussion of potential policies in case of pandemic. One of these would be to use the military for law enforcement in such a scenario, based I assume on the logical assumption that widespread panic would be the order of the day. The military's role, according to him, would primarily be to effect quarantines and thus limit affected areas; this is a role that I fear police might not be able to fulfill effectively. But Dr. Redlener has called this a dangerous precedent, and an "extraordinarily Draconian measure" - what this tells me is that the good doctor knows very little about Dracon. But I have to question this fellow's motives, as I do anyone at Columbia, and ask if he isn't playing with fire here. These arguments mirror those of Cindy Sheehan saying New Orleans was an occupied city, or the NYCLU decrying profiling in New York subways. All of these people desperately, and perhaps partisanly, seek to defend a definition of their freedoms more broadly construed than any of the Founding Fathers may have wished, and at such great cost. Is there any hope to separate policy from poliics?

My apologies

Sorry all few of you who read this for the silence of nearly two months - academics have dominated my life. But I'm trying to get things back into balance, and that includes this. So prepare yourself for another barrage - and tell your friends.

An Intelligently Designed Post

So the New York Times (and much of the rest of the liberal media) predictably screamed when President somewhat (somewhat) endorsed intelligent design. Now, I am in no way in favor of intelligent design and it clearly has no basis in science so it should in not be admitted into the classroom (as an aside, an agnostic amigo told me the first time he came into contact with ID was in his philosophy class - that seems more fitting).

But, I have to admit that I got a certain perverse pleasure from seeing the Left and its talking heads squirm at the thought of something outside of Leftist orthodoxy introduced into the classroom. Maybe they'll finally realize what others think when they force their doctrine - deconstructionism, multiculturalism, relativism into the classroom.

On a related note, scientific principle aside, I think that Bush was right in saying what he did as it would serve to redirect authority from Washington to the local level. Further, with some notable exceptions (namely a nationally mandated and designed civics program), it's arguably correct for municipalities and states to have a greater degree of control over their education curriculum than Washington and decidedly lefty teachers unions (in another aside, I may be totally wrong about this, but I think we've shown that national control and strict guidelines only produces bureaucracy and endemic failure). And if local control's really the issue at stake here, as I suspect it is, then we're going to see ID rising regardless, just check out these numbers. They show 54% of Americans disputing evolution, up from 46% in 1994, though interestingly, the number of people who say that Darwin's theory is proven by the fossil record has actually increased since just last year! Plus apropros to our discussion, it is worth noting that 55% of those surveyed believe that ID, creationism, and evolution should all be taught in school.

More generally, this may be the wave of the future - social conservatives looking to solidify their control and roll back Washington big-government behaviors. We'll see if I'm right - I hope I'm not.

The Annual Vacation Brouhaha

DailyKos and other loony lefties (who I admit I read, though only for the amusement value and the opposite point of view) are once again up to the annual "Bush leaves lets complain" left-fest. Yes, he has spent (thus far, and this according to Kos, so beware), Bush has spent 319 days on vacation. His pere, in contrast, spent 543 days over one term - this while a nuclear armed and existential enemy was coming apart at the seams, and with Saddam Hussein invading Iraq - yet the Kos et al. don't seem to care.

Further, no less a war-time leader than Winston Churchill spent about 1/4 of World War II out of the country and it doesn't seem that he got heavily slammed for it! Now admittedly, Churchill's time off cannot be construed as "vacation" per se, but if we consider how much transporation and technology have evolved since 1941-45, I'd say we're nearly on par in terms of productivity and accessability. Further, let's be honest - Bush doesn't just sit there and chop brush all day. If you consider getting briefed regularly and meeting with world leaders as vacation then I don't know what you consider work. Anyone who wants this vacation should just sign up, I doubt it's much of a vacation at all.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that Crawford is the true center of power in this administration. Bush's administration is one that seems highly uncomfortable with formality, as witnessed by the paucity of state dinners he's hosted (far fewer than WJC, I might note); I would suggest that this extends to the White House in general. If you've noticed, he does a lot of politicking out on the ranch, especially with foreign leaders. The man, even

August Recess Legislative Wrap-Up

S.397
So the Senate's firearms bill passed easily yesterday despite some good criticism from victims' rights advocates and a worthwhile amendment which was offered up by Jack Reed (D-RI) and promptly defeated. Now as much as any honest businessman, I feel like this country's getting dragged down by a litigious culture; in that vein I applaude efforts to cap medical malpractice. It's a reasonable idea in that it keeps doctors in business - doctors in my home state were draining like IV fluid to neighboring states where the courts weren't so onerous. But all of this is an aside. The Senate should be less than congratulatory on passing S.397 but rather recognize what they've done. They have made sure that gun companies who are less than perfect in ensuring the legitimacy and precaution of dealers they sell to are immune for their mistakes. Rather, leaving manufacturers liable to individual suits would force them to hold their dealers to a higher level of compliance. Not to be. Interesting to note that many of the usual mavericks, McCain included, voted in favor of 397.

HR 6
So we finally have an energy policy of sorts, though goody bag might better describe the bill. My first beef (pork?) with this one is ethanol - farm subsidies in the guise of an energy policy. They'll probably result in gas prices which are 10 cents higher on the coasts, and this at a time of increased oil costs anyways. Does that make sense to anyone? Also notable are the Republicans who voted no - Chafee, Gregg, Kyl, Martinez, McCain, and Sununu. On a state by state basis, both senators from Arizona, Florida, and New Hampshire voted against it. Those of course exclude all those senators who voted against it for purely political reasons. But once again, pork barrel politics and short-sighted partisanship (from both parties) wins the day. Bravo Senators.

So I guess it's been a succesful session, especially if you're a gun manufacturer or a corn grower. I feel like one of these days we're all going to have to say that we're tired of our government spending recklessly and vote otherwise, or just maintain the status quo and take it. Somehow I think we're just going to maintain the status quo.

Byrd Hunting

For those of you who haven't seen it, the NRSC's gotten its first ad of the '06 cycle on the air, targeting Robert Byrd. Check it out here. For those of you who might be wondering "Why Byrd," I'll give you a one-statistic answer. The man hasn't polled less than 60% since Ike was office. That's the 1950s for those of you whose knowledge of American history is sketchy. I'm guessing West Virginia's changed since then, so I'm guessing the politics there need some change too.